I seem to be doing better with my selections since the blog betting closed last November! At least in percentage terms. We are now in a very strong position with the two advised bets on Theresa May. They were placed/advised in 2011 (@ 20/1) and 2013 (@ 12/1). There is a potential profit on the two bets of 78 points (less two points lost on George). Full details here:
Rather like the situation with the Trump bet, for the Republican nomination, there is an opportunity to lock in some profits as May is trading at odds-on for the Con gig. She is priced @ 1.73 to lay as I write. I don't intend to advise you, I just thought you should be aware of the situation when dusting down those ante-post slips!
As for the Trump bet advised @ 20/1, it was placed with Betfred who paid out earlier this month - even though the result is not 100% certain.
Many of you have heard about my (small) bets on Leicester to win the Premier League. Word gets around. Here are some answers to questions that have been asked.
Why did you back Leicester, are you a supporter?
I have never supported a particular football team. I have never spoken about a team as a fan would. So, for instance, I have never used the word 'we' when referring to a team. I think part of the reason for this is that I was brought up in a county that does not have a top flight team: Devon. Plus I was hopeless at football at school.
This position does have its advantages though as it means I am totally unbiased when having a football bet.
At the time of my Leicester bets there seemed to be doubts developing about the consistency of Arsenal, Man U, Man City and Chelsea. I also backed Liverpool for the Premiership in November. .
Why were your Leicester bets not advised on your blog?
For reasons given elsewhere the betting blog closed on 1st November 2015. My Leicester bets were placed on 8th/23rd November. In any event only a small percentage of my bets appeared on the blog. I tried to recommend what I thought were the the best of my daily wagers on the blog and to a large extent this policy was successful. The blog achieved 20% profit over six years. My long term % profit is just under 9%.
Why were the bets so small - I thought you were a big punter?
Well I've never been a really big punter. I've never bet in thousands (bookmakers would certainly not allow it!) but these bets were particularly tiny. However each of the bets represents the maximum stake these bookmakers would allow me at the time. Actually the win liability (the same for each bet) is about 15 times what these firms would normally lay me on an early-price horse racing single. (My most profitable medium).
Would you have had bigger bets if allowed by these firms?
The answer is of course yes. But you have to remember that this is the case with more than 95% of all bets I place with bookmakers at prices. That's the way it is these days with restricted accounts and you just have to live with it or not bet at all.
Even though this is not a particularly big win it's strangely satisfying to feel part of what (for once) has been a very interesting Premier League season. Here are the winning wagers: