Monday, 19 March 2018

Twitter bets profit update

There is a problem with the software which I use to update my website. Until that is fixed here is a summary of 2018 activity. (Unresolved bets total 24 points). Full bet details will be published on my website once I can update it:

At 19/03/2018
Sports by month Stake Return Profit %
March Tennis - Indian Wells (M&W) 10.50 28.33 17.83
Cheltenham Festival 14.00 8.50 -5.50
19/03/2018 March total (so far) 24.50 36.83 12.33 50.33%
January Tennis - Aus Open (M&W) 11.00 51.50

February Rugby  1.00 0 -1.00
Tennis - Doha 2.00 0 -2.00
2018 to date 38.50 88.33 49.83 129.43%

Monday, 29 January 2018

Sweet Caroline

I backed both Carolines for the Australian Open: Wozniacki and Garcia. Not my only bets as I played three other women too. Nevertheless a great result as Woza obliged @ 33/1. My total stakes on the women's event were eight points (plus a three point loss on the men's). So final calculation is:

Total Australian Open stakes 11 points returns 51.5 points profit 40.5 points.

What I have learned over the last six months (in particular) is not to play match bets (unless hedging an outright position). I just cannot get a winning margin in these H2H plays. Far better for me to concentrate on the outright markets which have proved so successful in recent times.

Since the US Open, winners including 66/1, 12/1 and now 33/1 has meant total tennis stakes of 34 points returns of 174.5 points and thus a profit of 140.5 points. (All bets advised on Twitter).

Monday, 20 November 2017

ATP Finals, autumn recap and 2018 first thoughts

Another profitable tennis tournament result for followers of my Twitter stuff. Only two bets advised: 2pts ew Dimitrov 12/1 WHill (1/3 odds 1,2 ew) and 0.5pt ew Sock 25/1 Paddy P (1/3 odds 1,2 ew). Stakes five points, returns 36 points.

Dimitrov beat my other choice Sock in the semi-final and then beat Goffin, who defeated Federer in the other semi, in the final.

That’s tennis betting finished for 2017 events. It’s been a very profitable year, not least the period from the US Open onwards. The last five tournaments have yielded:

US Open - stakes 10.5 returns 64 (SS/MK)
WTA Singapore - stakes 4 returns 23 (CW/CG)
WTA Elite - stakes 2 returns 0
Fed Cup - stakes 1.5 returns 0
ATP Finals - stakes 5 returns 36 (GD)

Totals - stakes 23 returns 123.....PROFIT 100 points!!

Now take a look at the current Australian Open betting market. The best ew prices about the market leaders are: 3/1 Federer (bad back?), 7/2 Nadal (knee problems), 9/2 Djokovic (motivation?), 11/2 Murray (hip problem). Those four prices add up to 80%. It is still highly likely that one of the ‘big four’ will win the first grand slam of course but I’d rather have an interest in a couple of outsiders. For that reason I’ve had some bets on yesterday’s ATP finalists for the first two grand slams. Full details on my Twitter feed (@Mikedq).

Monday, 6 November 2017

US OPEN recap

As with Wimbledon, I decided the ladies' US Open would be very open and that supporting a small number of selections at big prices could prove profitable. I ignored leading contenders Muguruza, Pliskova and Halep. I swerved the men's event.

My pre-tournament bets were Keys, Svitolina and Stephens. During the tournament I added Makarova to the portfolio.

With Sloane Stephens beating Madison Keys in the final the stakes and returns were as follows:

1pt ew Keys 25/1 (1/2 odds 1,2). Return 13.5 points (losing finalist)
0.5pt ew Stephens 66/1 (1/2 odds 1,2). Return 50.5 points (winner)
1.5pt ew Svitolina
0.5pt ew Makarova + 0.5pt to win qtr.
(3pt hedge/cover bet)

Total stakes 10.5pt, returns 64 pts. Total profit 53.5pts.

(All above bets provided on my Twitter feed @Mikedq)

Monday, 17 July 2017

Wimbledon recap

I always feel a bit of a let down when Wimbledon is over for another year and so of course that is the case today. For me the best matches were Konta v Halep, Konta v Vekic and Nadal v Muller. The men's final was a huge disappointment.

The women's event was unprofitable for me. In what seemed a very open event (with Pliskova favourite - who I did not fancy) my "strategy" was to identify a handful of women at big prices who were in good form. Couldn't get anyone into the final however.

In contrast the men's event was very profitable. I backed three players outright: Federer 7/1 ew (in March), Nadal 7/1 ew and Cilic 28/1 ew.

Full list of bets below. Firstly those with staking advice:

Outright     1pt ew Cilic 28/1 Stake 2pts Return 15pts
                   1pt ew Kontaveit 50/1 Stake 2pts Return Nil
Qtr bets      1.5pts Tsonga 11/1 1pt Pouille 20/1 1st qtr Stakes 2.5pts Return Nil
Match bets   1pt D Brown to beat Murray Stake 1pt Return Nil
                    1pt Fog to beat Murray, 1pt Fog + 2.5 sets 11/8 Stake 2pts Return 2.37 Pts

Total stakes 9.5pts returns 17.37pts profit 7.87pts

Other than the above, which were all suggested on Twitter, I also tweeted a number of bet suggestions without staking advice. This was a rather silly thing to do as there was no indication of their relative merits. The suggestions were:

Men's: Federer 7/1, Nadal 7/1 Women: Ostapenko 33/1, Wozniacki 66/1. Clearly even level stakes on these selections showed a profit but in reality had they been accompanied by staking advice the shorter priced selections would have had the higher stakes. In particular I was very keen on Fed having suggested in March that he would start favourite. This was at a time when Murray and Djokovic were the market leaders, neither of whom reached the semi-finals.

So a profitable event thanks to Cilic and Fed who played a disappointing final yesterday owing to Cilic carrying an injury.