Euro 2012

You will be aware that France won 2-1 in Germany tonight in a friendly match. This brings their unbeaten run to 18 matches. They look overpriced at 14/1 to win Euro 2012, particularly as England are a shorter price to win the tournament and share the same group.

In terms of the match and group betting I have to get involved in the 15/8 France to beat England in the first Group D match and also with the 15/8 France to win the group. Can't see England being up to speed given the uncertainty over the manager situation. So three bets with Paddy Power as follows:

6 pts win @ 15/8 France to beat England on 11 June with Paddy Power


4 pts win @ 15/8 France to win Group D with Paddy Power


3 pts win @ 14/1 France to win Euro 2012 with Paddy Power


Total 13 points invested.

Kempton 7f, 20:35

Just one bet today. Unfortunately I missed the early 7/1 so I have had:

2 pts win @ 11/2 Chambles with Totesport (also available with bet365)

Two points invested

Arkle Trophy

Time for our second ante-post bet for Cheltenham.

Paddy Power is offering to refund all single bets on the Arkle if the current 5/4 favourite wins the race. Applies to win singles (and win part of ew singles) up to £100.

I think Peddlers Cross is the one to go for. Has been backed with Stan James into 5/2 today. Ladbrokes 11/4.

Consequently I have had 6 pts @ 3/1 Peddlers Cross to win the Arkle with Paddy Power.

Please note the bet must be with PP because of the concession offered.

Julia Goerges 2

Julia has done us a favour in beating Wozniacki this afternoon so now we can look forward to the Dubai final against Radwanska tomorrow. Unfortunately Aggie beat Julia 6-1 6-1 in this year's Australian Open in their only meeting so the Polish player will start a warm favourite. It will be a good measure, perhaps, of where Goerges is now if she can do well in the final.

Given the thought that perhaps clay is still Goerges' best surface I see no harm in speculating:-

1 pt each-way Julia Goerges @ 50/1 to win the French Open with Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2). Also available with VC bet.

Julia Goerges

I have watched Julie Goerges in a couple of her matches in Dubai this week. She started very slowly against the experienced Kuznetsova in the first round. She just couldn't cope with the pace of the court in the first set of that encounter, mistiming many of her shots. Once she got used to the court she upped the pace of her ground shots - taking out Kuzy in three.

After a comfortable win in the second round against Dellacqua she again came from behind to beat Hantuchova today in three. She looked completely different class to the veteran Slovakian (who has been playing well recently) in the final two sets.

Tomorrow she is up against the former number one Wozniacki, whom she famously took out in successive clay court tournaments in April/May last year to level their H2H at 2-2. In fact I always thought of Goerges as best on clay but the ferocity and accuracy of her ground shots, added to her powerful serve on this quicker surface, has been a revelation. If she takes her aggressive game to the "pusher" tomorrow she could overpower the Dane. Indeed I hope she can win the title and have backed her accordingly:-

2 pts Goerges to beat Wozniacki @ 9/4 with William Hill

2 pts Goerges to win Dubai tourney @ 6/1 with Totesport

(Check betfair for marginally better prices after commission at the time of writing)

Total four points invested.

Next England manager

I have a gut feeling that Harry won't get or will not accept (if offered) the England job. This of course is contrary to overwhelming popular opinion.

Why would a man who will be 65 soon and has suffered ill-health want to take up such a poisoned chalice? He is in a tremendous position at Spurs and paid very handsomely. His contract at Tottenham is up for renewal in summer 2013 so any approach from England, if ultimately refused, would assist him in renegotiating his contract.  In addition there is a buyout clause of £5m in his contract so the FA will have to pay a minimum of £8m+ if they want to prize him away from Daniel Levy's grasp (as he is paid £3m+ per annum).

I laid Harry @ 1.44 when the Capello announcement was made. So you haven't missed anything because you could lay him at a shorter price now (1.37 as I write).

The market seems clueless as to who might get the job if it's not Harry. Except that there has been a tiny move for Pep Guardiola who is now a best priced 10/1.  I'm not suggesting a bet on Pep as the larger prices have been missed. But if you are thinking the same way as I am your options are to lay Harry @ 1.37 and/or have a small interest on Pep @ 10/1 with William Hill (only 7/2 with skybet).

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Santo

Since I last posted on the Republican race Santo has moved 8% clear in Gallup's daily national tracking poll.

The key state for Santo is Michigan where the next Primary takes place on Feb 28. A new poll today shows Mitt closing the gap on what was a very healthy lead for our 18/1 poke for nominee. Santo is still 4% ahead in this poll however and has shown 6-10% ahead in other polls. Mitt is slight favourite to take Michigan around 4/6 with Santo available @ 11/10. Clearly the markets think Mitt's enormous advertising spend will be sufficient to turn around the Santo sentiment.

Also on Feb 28 a Primary takes place in Arizona. The latest poll shows Romney 8% ahead. There are some scandalous revelations overnight which could have an impact on the Romney campaign however. Also I understand a poll will be published tomorrow which is "good for Santorum".

Therefore I have had 3 pts @ 3/1 Santo for Arizona Primary with Stan James

Sent from my iPad

FA Cup update 2

We had 16 pts in total bets on the FA Cup outright - spread across six teams. We are down to just two teams now but at least these two have qualified for the quarter finals. The bets still running are:

0.5 pt ew Everton @ 25/1

and more importantly:

2 pts ew Sunderland @ 50/1 and 0.5 pt ew Sunderland @ 66/1

The above are both currently a best priced 7/1. When the draw is made around 4pm today I will be hoping for a home draw for Sunderland as that I feel would be a huge advantage at this stage.

I have had a couple more bets today, trying to take advantage of the fact some bookmakers still offer 1/2 odds to reach the final. The bets placed today were:

1 pt ew Stoke @ 16/1 with Coral (1/2 odds 1,2) 


0.5 pts ew Birmingham @ 66/1 with William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total invested 3 pts. Total FA Cup portfolio 19 points.

Next Premiership manager to leave

I think Arsene Wenger may leave in the light of the last two very poor results.

I have had 1 pt @ 33/1 with Stan James that Wenger is next Premiership manager to leave.

If you cannot get this price with Stan J I would still recommend the 25/1 with William Hill

Safarova v Bartoli

Lucie Safarova came through her match against Kuznetsova in straight sets yesterday. I was rather concerned pre-match as the market moved significantly in favour of the Russian. Thankfully, having been two set points down in the first set tie break, Lucie came through comfortably enough in the end.

Today she takes on Bartoli in the quarter finals, a player who holds a 4-1 HTH over her. However their two latest matches - both in 2011 - are split 1-1. The first Lucie won in straight sets and the second was an epic encounter at Eastbourne that Bartoli edged in the final set tie break.

Given the way Safarova has played so far this week I am tempted by Ladbrokes' 7/4. I would have priced her around the 5/4 mark.

Therefore I have had 3 pts @ 7/4 Safarova to beat Bartoli with Ladbrokes

Lucie is hot!

I have always regarded Lucie Safarova as a streaky player. Today she played a magnificent match to take out "the pusher" Wozniacki. Aggressive throughout, despite losing the first set, she somehow found herself serving at 4-5 0-40 in the deciding set. Three very strong first serves brought her back level. The match concluded with a tie-break and from 0-2 Lucie eventually won it easily. Her serve was brilliant, she won 79% of first service points which included eight aces. On this form she should have the measure of Kuznetsova tomorrow. Can she go further? It could be Bartoli after that and then maybe a rejuvenated Stosur for a place in the final. However another Czech, Cetkovska could trouble the Aussie. The good news as far as each-way interest is concerned is that the world number one (and odds on favourite) Azarenka is in the other half of the draw.

The blog could be described as on a bit of a streak too. The bets we've had in February (that have been settled) have all produced winning returns. Specifically: 16.4, 9 and then 8.9 points profit today when our two selections in the 19:40 Kempton went past together in a photo finish. If you started following the blog in 2012 you are still a few points behind, however if you've been with the blog since the beginning (Dec '09) you are close to 700 points up!

Let's hope we can continue the current winning run with the following bets:

2 pts win Lucie Safarova to beat S Kuznetsova @ 5/4 with Paddy Power (13/10 VC if allowed a bet)

1.5 pts ew Lucie Safarova to win WTA Qatar @ 20/1 with totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5 pts ew Petra Cetkovska to win WTA Qatar @ 50/1 with totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total staked six points.

Kempton 19:40, 7f

Going to switch to a horse race today. Taking two against the field in the 7f contest at 19:40. Both bets are BOG so if they should drift in the market we will be on at SP:

2 pts win Chilli Green @ 4/1 with William Hill (also available at Lads)

0.5 pts ew Masai Moon @ 14/1 with William Hill (also available at PP)

Total 3 pts invested.

WTA - Paris indoor

An impressive performance by Angelique Kerber Friday to take out world number three Sharapova in straight sets. Particularly as Masha had hammered her at the Australian Open. I think she now has a good chance to take the title here.

She plays Wickmayer in the semi today, the Belgian having come through a tough three-setter last night.

The other semi features Bartoli v Zakopalova. The French woman and tournament favourite looked exhausted after her three-set victory over Vinci, coming from 2-5 down to win 7-6 in the final set. It won't be an easy task against the Czech player today given the short recovery time.

I have had 3 pts win @ 3/1 Kerber to win the Paris tourney with Stan James.

Zarkandar

Our only ante-post bet for Cheltenham Festival 2012 so far, Zarkandar (at 14/1 now 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle) runs in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. It has just been confirmed that Ruby Walsh can take the ride as his intended suspension will not apply on Saturday. (Because of the transfer of a Grade One race).

Zarkandar is going to be a short price favourite despite the competitive field.

I have had an interest with 3 pts win Zarkandar for the Betfair Hurdle @ 100/30 with Paddy P.


Incidentally with regard to the previous bet on Santo. PP restricted me to £4.57 and immediately cut the odds to 14/1. I then bet with W Hill who restricted me to £10 and immediately cut the price to 8/1. It's all very flattering  but also very annoying that I can move markets with such small stakes.

However Ladbrokes still offer 16/1 at the time of writing.

Santo surge?

We took some 18/1 Santorum to be the Republican nominee back on 2 January. Since then he drifted out to 66/1 or more and all looked lost. Gingrich suddenly became the man who was the main challenger to Romney and at one time was around the 9/4 mark to get the gig. He has now imploded and can be backed at 20/1 or bigger on betfair. So the question is do we think Romney is home and dry yet? He is trading close to 1/5 on betfair and much shorter with the fixed odds firms.

Yet the suspicion remains that Romney could get turned over by whoever emerges as the right-wing contender. There is a little bit of betting interest in Santo and his price for the Republican nominee has come back down to the 16/1 - 25/1 range.

There are elections in three states tomorrow and Santo is showing up at the head of affairs in the polls in two of the states. So if he does well tomorrow at the very least he could completely regain momentum from Gingrich as the main challenger to the hot favourite.

I'm sticking with our 18/1 bet and am not going to press up. Instead I am having a couple of points on him winding up as the Republican VP candidate. This is showing at 16/1 with W Hill, Lads and PP. (12/1 SJ)

Therefore I have had 2 pts win Santorum to be Republican VP candidate @ 16/1 with Paddy P

Next Lib Dem leader

Well that looks like Chris Huhne is out of the running. The former second favourite in this market will be a big drifter now given this morning's news.

We have a long standing bet on Tim Farron being the next leader @ 9/1. He is generally a 6/4 chance.

Ed Davey has been brought into the cabinet to replace Huhne. He's worth a bet at S James' or W Hill's 14/1 for the leadership.

Therefore I have just had:

3pts @ 14/1 Ed Davey to be next Lib Dem leader with William Hill

Africa Cup of Nations

The tournament has now reached the quarter-final stage. Looking at the results since 1996, with the exception of one year (2002), the four matches have always produced at least one match that has gone to extra-time.

In fact there is evidence that in recent years the matches have become more competitive. In the last tournament (2010) three of the four matches went to extra-time. At the last three tournaments (2010, 2008 and 2006) six of the 12 quarter-final affairs have finished all square after 90 minutes.

I have therefore placed the following bets today:

4 February

Zambia v Sudan 6 pts @ 5/2 draw with skybet


Ivory Coast v E. Guinea 4 pts @ 7/2 draw with W Hill


5 February

Gabon v Mali 5.5 pts @ 12/5 draw with skybet


Ghana v Tunisia 5.5 pts @ 12/5 draw with skybet


One draw will result in a maximum loss of three points. Two draws will put us in the money with a minimum profit of 15.7 pts.

Total staked 21 points.