2013 Year end results

No more bets planned for this calendar year. Pleased to say it's been my most successful year and therefore not a bad time to reduce significantly blog bets activity. If you want to read more about this go to http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-details.php

Summary results for 2013: stakes 2,509 profit 794 (31.6%)

Full details: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php

Accumulative results from December 2009:  stakes 6,162 profit 1,423 (23.0%)

Wishing you all success with your bets in 2014 and beyond.

Ashes to ashes?

You are in a strong position if you followed my bets and backed Australia to win the Test Series 4-0 and 5-0 (see blog entry 22 November).

During the fourth test, however, it looked as though the momentum had swung England's way. They were 116 runs ahead with ten wickets in hand at one stage. Consequently I am pleased to get to this point with 4-0 on the board and no other bets placed on the Ashes.

Of course we have not won anything yet and will lose if England win the fifth test which starts on Thursday. I am not keen on hedging unless I can see some value in the hedging opportunity. In this case I can see a bit of value because England are generally 7/2 (and 15/4 with bet365) to win the next encounter. I am happy to admit I don't know a lot about cricket however I have now saved on an England win, which seems to me more likely  than a drawn fifth leg. Most bookmakers disagree with this and make the draw a shorter price than an England win.

You should really only be having the following bet if you are on the 4-0 and 5-0 score lines:

4pts England to win 5th Test @ 15/4 Bet365 (i.e. would result in a  4-1 series win for Australia).

Thus we will have a winning start to 2014 with the placing of the above wager (as the bets will all be settled in January):

Australia 5-0 series win = 27.75 points profit
Australia 4-1 series win = 12.5 points profit
Australia 4-0 series win = 16 points profit

(Total outlay 6.5 points)

Let's hope England crumble again and we can start the new year with over 27 points profit on this event. Ashes to ashes indeed!

Mugray

Andy Murray is on the comeback trail Boxing Day following back surgery. Apparently his pre-season training has gone very well in America. He plays Tsonga in an exo tomorrow, a player against whom he enjoys an 8-1 HTH. He should therefore win comfortably if fully fit.

Away from the betting markets, I wish him all the best in his recovery as his continued success can only be good for British tennis in encouraging more people to take up the game. However when it comes to betting we must be logical and consider how difficult 2014 could be for him with Nadal and Djokovic seemingly so dominant. Any tournament in which all three are playing will, if the seedings hold up, require Murray to beat them both to win the tournament. 

I have had a number of bets which will be successful if he doesn't do very well in the coming year. 

All bets relate to Andy Murray performance in 2014:

4pts number of tournament wins under 3.5 @ 11/10 Skybet

1pt zero tournament wins @17/2 Skybet

1.5pts exactly one tournament win @10/1 Betfred

1.5pts exactly two tournament wins @7/1 Betfred

2pts no Grand Slam finals played @ 5/1 Skybet

10pts no Grand Slam tournament wins @ 5/4 William Hill

Total twenty points staked.

Long Run

My Xmas/New Year holiday horse punting is usually limited to a bet in the King George. Don't see why that should change this year. The attraction of the KG has been the relatively small fields in recent years with most bookmakers offering each-way odds of 1/4 odds 1,2,3. My record in the race is not very good however. My selection last year was tailed off and in 2011 my choice was third of seven thanks to a late withdraw reducing the field.

This year I have gone for Long Run, last year's winner and the 2011 runner-up. Bookmakers think he has gone and that may prove to be the case however he has been fitted with headgear for the first time and that may make a difference. I like "headgear for the first time" horses on the flat - where I specialise in races up to one mile -  but over three miles we may not see the same sort of improvement! 

5/2 a place is better odds than the eight-year-old's winning SP last year so I think it's worth a small play as follows:

1.5pts ew Long Run @ 10/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3) NRNB BOG 

Three points staked.

Big Apostrophe

Hate writing the name of this horse! He is having a comeback gallop today apparently. If he is back to his best you'd expect him to be odds on for his next couple of races. How many will he have this season if ok? Perhaps three?

William Hill go 5/1 he remains unbeaten this season which looks attractive. He has to run once for the bet to stand. I have had:

3pts Big Buck's to remain unbeaten 2013/2014 season @ 5/1 William Hill


Added at 22:41: Big Buck's (r) gallops at Exeter racecourse....


           

SPOTY result 2013

Just read on Twitter that Murray won with over 50% of the vote. That's a disappointment but it seems I was not the only one to think that he would score under 50%, as "under" was backed from the 6/4 that I took to odds on.

Better news in the w/o Murray market. Three contenders backed here with McCoy, who finished third, the biggest wager. But it was Halfpenny who popped up to take second place at the rewarding odds of 69/1. Only a half-point staked on Halfpenny but therefore a return of 35 points. Total stakes on SPOTY 14 points, profit 21 points.

In the end a good overall result.

Is Andy Murray too short?

Yes I know he is 6'3'', but I am talking about his SPOTY price. He is currently 1/20 on betfair to back (1.05) and 1/16 (1.06) to lay. I have already laid him at a shorter price than this. Here are some of the reasons he may not be the shoe-in that everyone thinks:

1. He is not attending the SPOTY awards show on Sunday night as he is training in the US. As far as I am aware the other nine contenders will be in attendance. 

2. The Scottish vote may be diluted because the final on Sunday night coincides with the final of x-factor. Unless there is a shock and Luke is in the final two, Nick, the Scottish boy, will be in the two-horse final on Sunday night.

3. A recent poll shows the Murray vote quite close to Mo Farah recording 24-28%. This is bad news for my McCoy bet at 4/1 in the w/o Murray market despite the latter price contracting to no better than 7/4 since I suggested it. Is McCoy under represented in the poll?

Here is the poll in question:

http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/two-horse-race-sports-personality

So you could consider backing Mo at 50.0 on betfair or laying Murray at 1.06. You could also consider getting out of my 4/1 McCoy bet if you are on, at around 2.80-ish. I am sticking with the latter bet though. There is one further bet I have played, however, and that is as follows:

10pts Murray to achieve less than 50% of the vote @ 6/4 William Hill

Last year Bradley achieved 30% of the vote in a field of 12 which of course was much stronger

than this year's field. Cavendish achieved 49% in 2011 and McCoy 41% in 2010. 

The racing world is supposed to be getting behind McCoy but who knows whether they will. However with the above poll showing no more that 28% in favour of Murray I have to be on less than 50% at 6/4.

Good luck if you get involved. 

I wish I was a fisherman, tumblin' on the seas....

I recommend you invest some of your winnings (just £22 in fact) on the "Fisherman's Box", a 6-CD boxed set from the one time Spiddal residents, The Waterboys. Massive value with 121 tracks in total. Available here:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00EQK5OG0/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Are you blinded by the brilliance ?  Are you dazzled by the light ?

X-factor shite

Well that was amusing. Luke traded at 1.04 (or maybe shorter) to be eliminated tonight (1/25). If you read the stuff on sofabet.com you would have come to the conclusion that he could not possibly get past Rough Copy in a sing-off. I am banned from posting on that particular website for criticising it once. So it gives me great pleasure to see the Teignmouth boy in the final and reward my little ew bet. The sole bet suggested on the blog this year to win the show.

Don't think he can possibly win it but not really bothered about that.

FA Cup

Regular readers will know that I like to pick out two or three teams at this stage of the season for the knock out competition. They will also know that they have done their money if that is all they have followed on the blog! We went to the final with Stoke @ 66/1 in 2011 but they of course did not win.

Anyway interest in this helps me get through the winter, which I hate. This is how I have bet following the third round draw:

5pts win Everton @  14/1 William Hill
3pts win Tottenham @ 16/1 Coral
2pts ew Newcastle @ 40/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)
1.5pts ew Southampton @ 33/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total 15 points. With the so called Big4 not looking the forces they have been in previous seasons, there must be a better chance of a winner further down the Premiership table. The above selections have home ties with the exception of Tottenham who are away to Arsenal. All is not lost however it being a local derby.

I think that's enough football for this week. And indeed this year.

Good luck if you get involved.

Sent from my Hudl

World Cup group betting

Following the draw, I have pressed up on my outright selections to win their respective groups as follows:

Group B 3pts win Chile @ 11/2 Paddy Power

Group D 3pts win Uruguay @ 9/4 Unibet

Groups C/D 2pts win double Colombia @ 4/5 and Uruguay @ 9/4 Unibet

Eight points staked

Incidentally Ladbrokes have now come into line with their each-way offering. Needless to say they are no longer best price on all teams.

World Cup warning

Draw takes place at 16:00 GMT today. Ladcrooks have just advertised best price on all teams. If you are betting each-way though don't be caught out by their offer. They are betting 1/3 odds to reach the final whereas every other company offers 1/2 odds for the place terms.

Typical of Ladcrooks, trying to catch punters out with what appears to be a good offer but is clearly nothing of the sort for each-way players.

Sent from my Hudl

World Cup 2014

I was looking through my results at the World Cup and the Euro competitions this century and they are a bit better than I thought. Having said that, most success has come from backing or opposing teams in the group stages rather than in the outright markets. I seldom bet match results.

My best outright success came in Euro 2004 when I backed Greece at 66/1 for the tournament after they had won their opening match against the hosts Portugal. That was with Sportingbet, an account long gone now. The final clashed with a Bob Geldolf concert we attended and I can remember trying to listen to the match through a radio earphone whilst simultaneously enjoying the live music. You will recall no doubt that Greece beat the hosts again in the final, this time 1-0.

However I was not on Spain outright in Euro 2008/2012 or WC 2010. I did however have a bet at double figures on Italy to win the WC 2006. My main focus in the 2010 tournament was backing France to not qualify and finish bottom of their group. Those France bets featured on the blog by then of course.

I won't go into lengthy discussions about the outright bets I have placed for WC 2014 ahead of Friday's draw. You will know as much about the teams, and probably a lot more, than I do. Suffice it to say I have concentrated on the South American teams but from a value perspective I have swerved the obvious short-priced teams Brazil and Argentina. My value picks, two of which are seeded because of their FIFA rankings, are:

2.5pts ew Colombia @ 28/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts ew Chile @ 50/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

1pt ew Uruguay @ 33/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2) 

You could accuse me of playing with 'house money' here. And you are probably right to a certain extent. 2013 will be my best ever year punting (sureIy I can't lose much in the next three weeks!).

Ten points optimistically staked. 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

The future of this blog

I have operated a free betting advisory service on this blog since December 2009. 

This has proved very successful to such an extent that some of my betting accounts have been closed or severely restricted as a result. The blog is showing an accumulative profit of over 20% (ROI) after four years. (Currently over 30% for 2013).

I started the blog partly in order to prove to a number of doubters, in a public way, that it is possible to make significant profits from betting. After four years I consider that objective well and truly achieved. Unfortunately it has led to my personal betting options being restricted further. Successful betting relies on achieving the best - or near best prices -  in the "village". Once these are no longer available to you the task becomes progressively harder - not impossible with a starting point of a 120% success rate  - just very difficult indeed.

Therefore I will not be offering a daily horse racing service in 2014 - as I did in 2013 and before. I will post occasionally if I have a firm opinion on a feature event and I have obtained the bet I require with one of my (few) remaining accounts. However I will continue with the policy of only posting bets at prices I have been able to obtain myself (as has been the case since the blog started.)

Finally, I wish all the punters who have followed me - and hopefully profited from my betting exploits - all the best with future betting. Keep finding the value!!

Just in front at Kempton

The two selections put up last night both managed to make the frame. In the first race, Rosa Lockwood was placed third @ 16/1 (25/1 taken) despite a poor start. In the 19:05 I was completely wrong about Slip Sliding Away's price, having secured 11/1 and thinking that was going to be value. Narrowly beaten in third it was returned @ 16/1. Thanks to BOG we get paid at the 16/1 SP. It was the second selection in the latter race that attracted the money (28/1>12/1 SP) but Enderby Spirit could only finish fifth. One further positive point is that there were 12 runners in both races, the point at which books pay 1/4 odds each-way in handicaps.

So no great winnings this week just a tiny profit over the two days at Kempton. Pays for the crisps.

Meanwhile AP McCoy seems to be attracting a bit of support in the SPOTY markets....

Sent from my vintage IPad

Thursday horses 2

Final bets for today (subject to non-runners):

16:05K 0.5pts ew Ziefhd @ 16/1 Coral BOG (20/1 SJ)

19:05K 0.5pts ew Enderby Spirit @ 28/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked.

Sent from my Hudl

SPOTY 2013

The ten nominations for SPOTY have been published with no surprises. Mugray is a best priced 1/20 to win it and almost certainly will (although I have laid him @ 1.03).

The most interesting market is betting w/o Mugray. Mo Farah is odds-on with most firms but worth opposing in my view. Last year he was well fancied in the betting but did not make the first three, despite his wonderful Olympic achievement, polling only eight percent of the vote. Chris Froome is generally second favourite in the w/o market but lacks the charisma of Bradley Wiggins.

Accordingly I have opposed the front two as follows, with the main bet being the only previous winner in the field - who polled 40% of the vote when winning in 2010:

In the betting w/o Mugray market:

3pts win AP McCoy @ 4/1 Boylesports
0.5pts win J Rose @ 34/1 Unibet (or 888.com)
0.5pts win L Halfpenny @ 69/1 Unibet ( or 888.com)

Four points staked

Sent from my Hudl

Kempton Thursday

Despite the disappointing result at Kempton today, I am having another go tomorrow as follows:

 Firstly it could be that W Hill is overpriced with this one in the 19:05:

19:05K 1.5pts ew Slip Sliding Away @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

In the first race I have had a little ew on an outsider:

16:05K 0.75pts ew Rosa Lockwood @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG

I might add to these tomorrow but for the moment it's 4.5 points outlay.

Having looked at Friday's card at Dundalk, I  will not be having a wager there. 

Wednesday horses

Like the look of just one race today. I did consider Dundalk but not keen on the card. Will look again on Friday.

Kempton 19:00 looks an interesting ew race so I have had two bets:

19:00K 1pt ew Tiddliwinks @ 7/1 William Hill BOG
19:00K 0.75pts ew Love Island @ 10/1 Boylesports BOG

3.5pts staked.

Sent from my Hudl

Anti-patriotic bets

Perhaps I should have learnt my lesson after going low on UK gold medals at the Olympics. But I haven't.

I was looking yesterday at England for the 2014 World Cup - in terms of a poor performance of course - following their abysmal Wembley matches: two defeats, no goals and no shots on target against the German reserves. William Hill was going 3/1 for them to be eliminated at the group stage but unfortunately that has now disappeared and the best price is now 5/2 which is too short to get involved at present.

So I have turned my attention to another sport that I shouldn't really be betting on - cricket!

Ian Botham's prediction of a 5-0 series win for England looks a tad optimistic after just the second day of a potential 25! I have gone with the home side in the belief that confidence may not recover in the England camp. Just a couple of small bets as follows:

1pt Australia to win the series 5-0 @ 36.0 betfair (33.25/1 after 5% commission) 

1.5pts Australia to win the series 4-0 @ 14/1 William Hill (16/1 Ladbrokes if you can bet there)

2.5pts staked

High point was Lau

The high point of my weekend was seeing Lau at the Ludlow Assembly Rooms. Above was one of their best tracks.

Best band Radio Two Folk Awards 2013 (and several previous years too!)

World Cup qualifiers

I'm interested in two of the second-leg play-offs tonight. France and Croatia are short-priced favourites to win their respective matches. I think the matches will be low scoring. 

France are obviously not the team they were at the end of the last century. They have a 2-0 deficit to overcome against Ukraine this evening. Problem is they don't score many goals. I have had two bets, one would see the match going to extra time, the other would see France coming up short and not qualifying:

 2pts France to win 2-0 @ 11/2 Unibet

1pt France to win 1-0 @ 6/1 Paddy Power

In the other encounter, it starts 0-0 from the first leg. No doubt Iceland will park the proverbial bus however they will have to score at some point if they are to progress. Just one goal to the home side would be enough and if that happened presumably the bus would change ends! My bets are:

2pts Croatia to win 1-0 @ 6.0 betfair (19/4 after 5% commission) 

2pts Croatia to win 2-0 @ 19/4 Unibet

Seven points staked. 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Turf Season 2013

I'll be updating the website with the final figures for the season in the next few days. Despite a poor closing week it's been a very successful seven months or so.

I said at the beginning of the year that I would be concentrating on the flat and the strategy has duly delivered, producing 581 points profit out of the year's total (to date) of 766 points. For the record this is how things turned out:

Flat season 2013 complete: Stakes 1,906 Returns 2,487 Profit 581 (30.5%)

And the year to date so far:

2013 to date: Stakes 2,472 Returns 3,238 Profit 766 (31.0%)

Looking back on some of the highlights of the season, we backed:

Ascot: Galician w 33/1  

Goodwood: Pal Of The Cat w 33/1 

Ayr: Circuitous w 33/1

Ayr: Ancient Cross w 33/1

Hamilton: Coral Sands w 25/1

Ayr: Hazelrigg w 25/1

Doncaster: Morache Music w 25/1 

Plus plenty of winners @ 22/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1 etc.

Hope you made some profits as a result of my scribbles....

As for tonight's TV we have a dead rubber in the tennis, which is rather boring, so maybe I will tune into x-factor shite and watch the Teignmouth boy murder a Van Morrison classic. Still we have 14/1 each-way (1,2,3) about him and he is generally a 6/1 shot which can't be bad. 

Saturday horses 2

Final bets for the 2013 flat season:

13:50D 0.75pts ew Sam Nombulist @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

14:25D 1.5pts win Spinatrix @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:05D 2pts win 1pt place Prime Exhibit @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

Total six points

That's it unless any of my selections are non runners.

Sent from my Hudl

Saturday horses

Well here we are on the eve of  the last day of the turf season. It would be nice to end what has been a highly profitable season with a winner. 

However Doncaster looks really tricky tomorrow in what will be very soft ground.

Three, possibly four races are of interest tomorrow starting with:

13:15D 2pts ew Tableforten @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

13:50D 1.5pts ew Kyllachy Rise @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

0.5pts ew double at above two prices

Total eight points

 

ATP finals - Group A

Stan can no longer finish top of group A following his - rather unlucky I thought - defeat to Nadal in two tiebreak sets. He should certainly have won the first of those sets and the effort he put into destroying his racket shortly after it showed he thought so too. So it's now 12-0 to Nadal in the H2H.

Berdych is up against a similarly daunting H2H tomorrow night - his record is 3-16 against Rafa. You might be surprised to learn though that the Czech player has a losing H2H record against  EVERY other player in this eight-man contest. However Tomas played superbly to beat Ferrer in straight sets to give himself a chance of qualifying for the semis. All he has to do now is beat Rafa! 

I took 8/1 Berdych winning the group at the start and as he is about to play his last group match he is still 8/1. To finish top he would need to win in straight sets. A tall order but I have seldom seen him play better than against Ferrer. Rafa is through to the semis whatever the result tomorrow and in addition has been confirmed as year-end number one following his second win in the RR (against Stan). 

The key to the match will be the Berdych serve. Against Ferrer he lost only one point in the entire match when his first serve went in. Based on what I saw this evening (Delpo's bold effort) I think the court may be getting quicker which could aid the Czech's chances.

Obviously should it be 2-0 to TB we will have a winning bet. I am going to have an additional bet, however, which would still see TB through to the semis, but as runner-up to Nadal:

1pt Berdych to beat Nadal by 2-1 in sets @ 8/1 Bet365

Sent from my vintage IPad

Tuesday horses

Just one bet in the last at Kempton:

19:30K 1pt ew Piazza San Pietro @ 12/1 Skybet BOG

At long last Skybet are offering BOG. Unfortunately they continue to offer pathetically small bets to anyone who backs a winner now and again.

Sent from my Hudl

Melbourne Cup

Takes place early tomorrow morning. Was forgetting this race when posting last night about flat racing. A 24-runner handicap with most bookmakers offering first four for ew betting. (Boylesports five places). However odds are pretty cramped with the selections I have chosen so I am playing win only and have had all three bets with betfair. There is plenty of liquidity there so you should be able to get the same prices as me if you are interested in doing so. The bets I have had are as follows:

04:00 Melbourne Cup 1.5pts win Tres Bleu @ 28.0 Beffair (25.65/1 after 5% commission)

04:00 Melbourne Cup 1pt win Masked Marvel @ 42.0 Betfair (38.95/1)

04:00 Melbourne Cup 1pt win Simenon @ 18.0 Betfair (16.15/1)

Total 3.5 points

If you have not had a bet in Australia with betfair before you may not be aware that you have to transfer stakes to an "Australian wallet". This is a simple process and you can of course transfer money back to the UK wallet immediately should you be successful with your bets!

Sent from my vintage IPad 

ATP Finals

Have been trying to find a bit of value in the outright market for the ATP finals which start Monday at the O2, but have so far failed to do so. 

Group B looks by far the toughest group with Fed, Delpo and Djoko. However Group A could be interesting as Nadal is as short as 4/9 to top it. His defeat to compatriot Ferrer in Paris this week might be the first signs of him getting tired after a tremendous late season run. If Nadal can't win this group then I think it's "each of three" to triumph. Ferrer had a very hard match today in the Paris final against Djoko (even though it was only two sets). 

Despite the H2Hs not stacking up too well for the non-Spaniards in this group,  I have had a couple of wagers simply because Betfred (and Totesport) are offering odds greater than what I think they should be:-

2.5pts Stan Wawrinka to win Group A @ 12/1 Betfred

1.5pts Tomas Berdych to win Group A @ 8/1 Betfred

Total four points.

On the horse racing front, likely to be very little of interest in this the final week of the flat turf season. Maybe a bet on the sand at Kempton or Wolverhampton. Perhaps something at Nottingham Wednesday and/or Doncaster on Saturday. 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Breeders' Cup

I have had a look through the prices of those bookmakers that lay me bets - not that many so did not take too long! Seems that only W Hill is offering BOG and NRNB at the moment. Betting in three races Friday/Saturday as follows:

1pt ew Colonel Joan to win Juvenile Fillies' Turf @ 40/1 William Hill BOG NRNB

2pts ew Obviously to win Mile (Turf) @ 14/1 William Hill BOG NRNB

0.5pts ew double above two at prices


0.5pts ew Silentio win Mile (Turf) @ 66/1 Coral

0.75pts ew Got Shades to win Juvenile Turf @ 40/1 Coral

1pt ew Kitten Kaboodle to win Juvenile Fillies' Turf @ 14/1 Coral

3 x 0.25pts ew doubles 0.25pt ew treble above three at prices


1pt ew Silver Mix to win Mile (Turf) @ 6/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Total 15.5 points staked.

Wednesday horses

From Nottingham:

14:00N 0.75pts ew No Dominion @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

14:00N 1.5pts win Topamichi @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG

14:30N 1pt win George Fenton @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

14:30N 1.5pts ew Shawkantango @ 20/1 Coral BOG

15:05N 1.5pts win Beau Mistral @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

15:05N 0.75pts ew Alpha Delta Whisky @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

Ten points staked.

Going to a couple of betting shops to have some Breeders' Cup bets so may post something this afternoon.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

X-factor update

Please be aware that since I posted the suggested ew bet this morning on Luke Friend with Paddy Power they have changed their ew terms. They now bet an unattractive 1/3 odds 1,2 rather than 1/5 odds 1,2,3.

Consequently the value has gone. If you still wanted to get involved you'd need to bet with Ladcrooks (12/1, 1/5 odds 1,2,3 or Sportingnobet 11/1 1/4 odds 1,2,3).

X- factor

Have had a bit of success with bets on this in the past, which doesn't mean I'm going to win on it this year. I have only watched the last couple of shows and it is already down to the final ten. However only three bookmakers offer ew betting on the first three which has prompted me to take a closer look. (I haven't included the firm "Winner" and please note skybet offers win only not 1/4 1,2,3 as advertised on Oddschecker).

I make it a four or five-runner race. Tamera is a short-priced favourite (only 11/8 in places) and to me seems the most likely winner. However the cramped odds make this an attractive ew market. I have gone for Luke Friend at 14/1 with Paddy Power. Seems sufficiently different from the two other solo boys to perhaps do the best in this category. (Quite a large 9/2 with Lads for top boy).  

Rest assured I have not backed Luke because he comes from the small town where I was brought up! (Where Muse come from too). I have had:

1.5pts ew Luke Friend to win X-Factor @ 14/1 Paddy Power (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Three points staked.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Tuesday horses

At Wolverhampton today:

17:10W 2pts win Electric Qatar @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:10W 1pt win Funding Deficit @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

0.5pt ew double above two at prices.

Total four points.

Have had a bet on X-factor, will post shortly.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Final two weeks of turf flat season

No bet today as Leicester is abandoned. Very little of interest in these final two weeks. Possibly Ayr and/or Nottingham on Wednesday. Then Nottingham and/or Doncaster next week. Other than that, the odd wager on the sand at Wolverhampton.

All figures up to date on the website. Flat racing profit + 620 points (33.4%), 2013 overall + 804 points (33.2%).

Sent from my Hudl

Saturday wrap

The ups and downs of punting. Such a tremendous day yesterday with winners at 25/1 and 6/1. Then a horror show today with nil returns. Thanks to that big priced winner yesterday, we are still 27.25 points up on the week with just the tennis outright bets to be settled Sunday. Li Na takes on Serena Williams in the Istanbul final.

If, as is expected, Serena wins the final the week's profit will fall to 25.25 points, still a reasonable figure. Should the Chinese overcome the 'fatigued' American then the final profit for the week will rise to 41.75 points thanks to the 10/1 ew bet on Li Na.

Sent from my Hudl

Saturday horses 3

Further selections today:

16:25D 3pts win Torchlighter @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

17:30D 2pts win Lilac Tree @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

0.75pts ew double above two at prices

17:45W 2pts win Free Spin @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

20:15W 1.5pts win Captain Midnight @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

0.5pts ew double above two at prices

Total above 11 points. That's it unless anything selected does not run, Good "luck"!

Saturday horses 2

Additional bet in Doncaster big sprint:

15:15D 3pts win Steps @ 9/1 Coral BOG

Other selections for today to follow shortly.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Tennis summary - Istanbul

Now we know the final four and three of them are the three outright selections (PK, LN, JJ) I suggested at the beginning of the week. Problem is the fourth player is the (probably) unbeatable Serena Williams, at best a 1/5 chance to pick up the trophy on Sunday.

Total investment on the event is 16.5 points and we have had two winners so far: JJ to beat Vika, return nine points and Sara Errani to beat JJ 2-0 in sets, return seven points. Total return 16 points.

So we are certain to win on the event as Li Na (further 6.5 points) or Kvit (6.66 points) will reach the final. JJ is highly unlikely to beat Serena so I won't bother working out that particular outcome!

So no more bets on this event as we already have an interest in each of the remaining three matches through the outright wagers.

Anyway another winning week whatever happens tomorrow or Sunday......

Sent from my Hudl

Saturday horses

There will be action from Doncaster and (possibly) Wolverhampton tomorrow. Early punt in the 5f race at Donny as the one I like best is attracting a bit of support:

15:15D 2pts win 1.5pts place Ballesteros @ 16/1 Bet365 (BOG), (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Friday update

Li Na has won her group so will play the winner of Kerber/Kvitova in the semi-final. Li Na and JJ have thus qualified for the semis so the JJ v SE match tonight is a dead rubber. However JJ will play Serena in tomorrow's semi whereas Errani is already out before they start so is just competing in this last RR match for the notes.

If Errani wins the first set tonight I think JJ might turn it in to conserve her energy for Saturday, so I am just having a small speculative wager as follows:

19:00 1pt S Errani to beat JJ 2-0 in sets @ 6/1 Boylesports 

BTW Great result at Doncaster earlier - our 22/1 winner pays out @ 25/1 thanks to BOG!

Sent from my vintage IPad

Tennis update

Each-way bets not looking so clever now as Kerber has found a bit of form and is favourite to beat Kvit today and thus eliminate her from the competition. In the other group Li Na will top it if she beats Vika today. The latter is slight favourite for the match though.

Depending on the outcome of the Vika match, I may have a wager in the JJ v Errani match and if I do I will post after we know the earlier result.

Sent from my Hudl

Friday horses

At Doncaster and Wolverhampton:

15:10D 1.5pts win 1pt place Morache Music @ 22/1 William Hill BOG
15:10D 1.5pts win 1pt place Royal Rock @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

19:00W 1pt ew Jackie Love @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Seven points staked.

Sent from my Hudl

Kvitova v Williams

Now that Vika lost a match, must have a good chance of one of my outright selections making the final. However little chance it would seem of backing the winner as Williams has hardened in the outright market to 1/3 from 8/11 at the start.

SW plays Kvitova tonight and the latter is 5/1 or 11/2 with the bookmakers to record a first victory (0-4). Kvitova did at least win a set last time they met going down 7-5 in the third in the Qatar final. If Petra can serve well and reduce her UEs a bit she has a chance, albeit a small one. I have laid SW on betfair @ 1.13 for the match, just to lose a point which works out @ 7.3/1 KV after commission:

19:00 Lay SW @ 1.13 to lose one point on betfair.

(Risk 1pt, a KV win returns 8.3 pts after 5% commission)

Sent from my Hudl

Thursday bets

Thought about going to Ludlow races tomorrow, however the fields don't look great so that will have to wait for another time. Indoor tennis instead is the call despite the fact that no rain is forecast!

On the bets front, not getting involved at Wolverhampton Thursday so it's another blank day for the horses. Going to press up a little with JJ though as follows:

15:00 2pts win Jankovic to beat Li Na @ 23/10 Boylesports

H2H is 5-4 in favour of the Chinese. LTO was a spanking for the Serb in the US Open but JJ won the three previous encounters prior to that.

Although they both won today, JJ's confidence level looked way ahead of the higher-ranked player.

If you can't get 23/10, Skybet offer 9/4. Coral go 13/8 which looks nearer the mark to me.

Sent from my Hudl

Diva JJ does the business

An easy straight sets win for JJ over Vika. Although there was some early money for the Serb (including ours!) the heavy hitters stepped in at the death for Vika. In particular I noticed (and took) some 5.5 JJ on betfair about half an hour before the off. So you could say the market was wrong again. 

You get a lot of rumours during these RR matches about injuries and players not trying etc and it's best to ignore them. 

Based on their play today, I think JJ has a decent shot against Li Na tomorrow. Not seen any prices yet but 9/4-ish would interest me.

Price change

I see that PP has slashed the JJ price recommended for today's match from 7/2 to 11/4 shortly after I placed my small bet with them. She is still 10/3 with several firms or 4.8 on betfair (better than 7/2 after commission) at the time of writing.

Interestingly there was a big gamble against Kvitova in her match yesterday. She was around 8/11 to prevail against A Rad when the market opened but by the time the first ball was struck she had drifted out to 5/4 with the Pole becoming the favourite. PK won in straight sets without dropping her serve. Shows you the market is not always right!

Sent from my Hudl

WTA Istanbul

I was very unimpressed with Vika's win yesterday. Errani, who has a terrible H2H with her, had massive chances to take the first set. She served for it at 5-2, 5-4 and 6-5 but could not convert. Self-belief lacking. In the second set, an injury to Errani, picked up earlier in the match, took hold so naturally Vika ran out the easy winner.

I think JJ should prove a greater test today, particularly as Vika appears to have not totally resolved her serving issues. It's worth having a small bet on the Serb as follows:

17:05 2pts win Jankovic to beat Azarenka @ 7/2 Paddy Power

JJ is 3-5 in the H2H but took Vika to three sets in their latest encounter. JJ reached the final of her last tournament, losing to Serena but beating Kvitova in the semi.

Sent from my Hudl

Bets this week

No good today. Pontefract was in a bit of a state with heavy ground and false rails. Not really an excuse for my nag who finished a reasonable fifth in the end but probably failed to stay in the desperate ground. We can tell it's nearly the end of the turf flat season as there are very few meetings of interest during these last three weeks. I won't be having a bet on the flat for the next couple of days so if you tune into the blog you are likely to be confronted with the odd tennis mug punter bet! Here's another one:

2pts win Janko to win Istanbul White Group @ 7/1 Betfred 

If there is a chink in the Vika armour then Janko at the above price is a reasonable poke given her close H2H with Li Na, a 9/4 chance to top the group.

Later in the week Wolverhampton maybe of interest. And of course Doncaster might throw up something. The feature race is the RP Trophy of course and a friend reminded me today that we saw AOB's main entry (he has four) win his first race at the Curragh nine days ago. His name is Century:

WTA Championships Istanbul

The usual wealth warning as my tennis bets do not have the same record as my horse racing selections! But this is what I have done and why:

Serena is the odds-on favourite for the event (8/11 or shorter) which makes ew bets attractive with just eight runners. Kvitova, who has shown improved form late in the season, is an excellent indoor player. She is in the same group as Serena but if she can beat both Kerber and Radwanska she should go through to the semis and thus not meet Serena again until the final.

In the other group I think Azarenka is worth opposing. Following her runner-up performance in the US Open final, she had a very poor "Asian swing" losing in second and first rounds to Venus Williams and Petkovic. There are still big problems it seems with her service. Consequently I have backed both Li Na and Janko in Vika's group:

2pts ew Kvitova to win Istanbul @ 7/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2)

1.5pts ew Li Na to win Istanbul @ 10/1 Betfred (1/3 odds 1,2)

0.75pts ew Jankovic to win Istanbul @ 40/1 Betfred (1/3 odds 1/2)

Total 8.5 points above.

Elsewhere Halep continues to improve winning her fifth tournament in 2013 yesterday (Moscow). She is heading for the top 15. I have had a small bet on her for the Australian Open:

0.75pts ew Simona Halep to win Aus Open @ 50/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1/2) 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Monday horses

Pontefract today. A bet in the first race:

14:10P 2.5pts win Breakable @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

That's it on the horses today unless the selection doesn't run. 

Perhaps unwisely, I have got involved in the WTA Championships which start in Istanbul on Tuesday. My thoughts to follow shortly.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Weekly wrap

A losing week of just under nine points. Disappointing finish with my 'good thing' BH Lady getting chinned a neck despite being heavily supported into 2/1 favourite. Earlier Kinglami did best of my two in the impossible apprentice handicap by finishing a close fifth.

ROTW ran a great race in a fantastic Champion Stakes to finish third for each-way money.

It seems a long time since I had to report a losing week, but it had to happen I guess. No bet tomorrow, tennis beckons between the showers.

Sent from my Hudl

Saturday horses

The most interesting race for me is the last at Ascot. It's also the most difficult with 27 runners (currently) and only two bookmakers offering more than four places for ew betting. So ew betting is not great value. I like these two:

16:45A 2pts win 0.5pt place Dubawi Sound @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

16:45A 1.5pts win Kinglami @ 22/1 Coral BOG

Dubawi Sound has one of the best jockeys in the race. Kinglami was unlucky not to win a rough race at Goodwood LTO and sneaks in here on bottom weight. You will probably get slightly better prices on betfair but at least with the above wagers we are protected with BOG. Last year I had one selection in this race  - Jack Dexter @ 6/1  - which won at 4/1. This renewal looks much harder though.

My other race is at Wolverhampton: 

19:50W 3pts win Burren Hill Lady @ 3/1 William Hill BOG

She is a tail swisher but likes it at Wolverhampton. She won a very similar race here 16 days ago. 

Seven points staked. 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Friday horses 2

Big run from Hot Sugar, just run out of it close home. Headgear obviously helped, third, return 4.5 points. Other selection still blindfolded after the start and lost 20 lengths. No further bets tonight, will have another look at Ascot in the morning.

Friday horses

Very uninspiring cards today hence delay in posting. Have played the first at Wolverhampton however:

17:25W 1pt ew Hot Sugar @ 14/1 William Hill BOG
17:25W 0.5 pt ew Major Muscari @ 33/1 William Hill BOG

If I have any further bets at Wolverhampton I will post them after the above race.

Tremendous racing in prospect at Ascot tomorrow of course and I have opposed the favourite in the Champion Stakes as follows:

16:05A 1.5pts ew Ruler Of The World @ 8/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1,2,3) BOG

I am interested in another race on the card but am waiting for all the bookmakers to price it up before getting involved. May post something later today...

Sent from my Hudl

Profits update

No "luck" today. No horse bets tomorrow. Possible bets from Haydock and/or Wolverhampton on Friday.

All results up to date now on the website:

Totals 2013: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php 33.6% ROI

Flat season 2013: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-Season-2013.php 33.9% ROI

Counting down to the end of the turf flat season on Saturday 9 November....... 

 

Wednesday horses

Just one race today:

14:40N 0.75pts ew Habdab @ 18/1 William Hill BOG
14:40N 0.75pts ew Perfect Choice @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

Three points staked

Tuesday Racing

Travelling tomorrow so very little time to bet and/or post. So have had a couple of speculative wagers at Newcastle:

16:30New 0.75pts ew Roker Park @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

17:00New 0.5pts ew Mission Impossible @ 33/1 Bet365 BOG
17:00New 0.75pts ew Lucky Lodge @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

Total four points.

That is probably it but I can't say with 100% certainty!

Monday

A winning week of around seven points. Will update the figures later in the week. No bets today though.

Sunday horses 2

In the absence of one of my selections I am going for Cathy Gannon on this one:

16:45G 1pt ew The Confessor @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Sunday horses

No damage Saturday with places @ 33/1 and 11/1 plus a non-runner so we are certain to show a small profit on the week whatever the outcome on Sunday, as I am only interested in one race. That is at Goodwood:

16:45G 3pts win 2pts place Joe Packet @ 9/1 Coral BOG
16:45G 0.5pts ew Colonel Maddox @ 25/1 Bet365 BOG

Joe has the superb Ryan Moore in the saddle.

Six points staked.

Saturday horses

At Wolverhampton this evening:

17:40W 1.5pts win Whipphound @ 6/1 William Hill BOG
17:40W 0.5pts ew Hamis Al Bin @ 14/1 William Hill BOGBOG

18:20W 1.5 pts win The Dukkerer @  4/1  Paddy Power BOG
18:20W 0.5pts ew Black Geronimo @ 33/1 William Hill BOGBOG

18:50W 1pt ew Clapperboard @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG
18:50W 0.5pt straight forecast Shyron to beat Clapperboard (W Hill)

Total 7.5 points.

Friday wrap

Back in the winners' enclosure thanks to Fat Gary tonight. Didn't see or hear the race as I was in La Mer Zou (Dublin) taking advantage of their early bird offering. Off to Fairyhouse tomorrow for a few tote bets. However I may well get involved with Wolverhampton again as we enjoyed a bit of success there today.

Very strange the way the two selections were backed: 6/1 > 9/4 and 12/1> 11/4! That certainly wasn't because of my modest investments!

Friday horses

Today ended up almost a push as we dropped about a third of a point. The ew poke was placed but the returns were subject to a 25p rule 4 deduction. 

Bit disappointed with the outcome as I might have been able to make more of Ayr on the blog had I not been travelling for most of the day. 

As for tomorrow only Wolverhampton is of any interest:

18:40W 2pts win Fat Gary @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG

19:10W 0.75pts ew You're The Boss @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

3.5pts staked.

We were on Fat Gary LTO at Goodwood (we were also on the winner in his race) when he ran a fair race in what was a higher grade. 

Looking ahead to the weekend there may not be that many races under consideration. Wolverhampton again on Saturday is possible and Sunday's Goodwood fixture could throw up something.

Thursday horses

Blank day yesterday, low key day today:

14:40A 1.5pts win Red Cobra @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

15:10A 0.75pts ew Little Jimmy Odsox @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

 Three points staked.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Wednesday horses

Bets at Nottingham tomorrow:

15:00No 3pts win Searchlight @ 9/2 William Hill BOG

15:00No 0.75pt reverse forecast above with Sleepy Sioux (W Hill)

16:30No 1.5pts win 1pt place Charitable Act @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

16:39No 0.75pt ew Master Of Song @ 20/1 Betfred BOG

No further selections unless any of the above are non-runners.

Total 8.5 points.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Tuesday wrap

Losing day with returns just one 16/1 place (1/4 odds) and one NR (2.5pts Big Picture). Total return 6.25 points, loss on day 3.75 points. Carry forward profit for the week to Wednesday = +3 points. Nottingham tomorrow.

Tuesday horses

Nice winner at Ponte @ 6/1 yesterday but no joy at Wolverhampton. Today's bets:

16:10L 1.5pts win Tychaois @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG
16:10L 0.75pts ew Methaaly @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

17:45L 1.5pts win 1pt place Bigger Picture @ 12/1 William Hill BOG
17:45L 0.75pts ew Rough Rock @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

18:40W 0.75pts ew Top Boy @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG
18:40W 0.75pts ew Rylee Mooch @ 16/1Betfred BOG

Ten points staked.

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Monday horses 2

Two races at Wolverhampton as follows:

16:00W 1pt ew Monty Fay @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

16:30W 0.75pts ew Clear Praise @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

16:30W 0.75pts win Piddie's Power @ 9/1 Skybet 

Total 4.25 points

 PS Party Royal has just obliged at Ponte by a head...

Monday horses

One race at Pontefract today:

15:10P 2pts win Party Royal @ 6/1 Betfred BOG

15:10P 1pt win Polar Chief @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

I may have a bet at Wolverhampton but I want to see how the track is running in the first couple of races before I decide. I will post around 15:00-15:15 if I get involved. 

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Sunday

Poor race for us at Ascot yesterday moving the profit down to 1.3 points on the week. Just going with my three outside pokes already advised for Longchamp today at :25/1, 25/1 and 50/1. Exposure is 6.5 points. Obviously one place would do us. Arc of course massively competitive. Remember if you are not supporting either of the two Japanese horses there may be some value on the Paris Mutuel on any other selections you might pick out for the Arc. So remember to have a look at the potential tote returns before playing.

Good luck if you are getting involved.

Sent from my vintage IPad

Further Arc bet

Had another look at the horses drawn lower than my ante-post selection Leading Light. The only one I can make a case for is the ex-Fabre trained Meandre. Has run well in the race before when not particularly well drawn. Interestingly is best priced with Paddy Power who are one of only two bookmakers that currently offers four places for ew backers. Don't think it will win but must have chance of reaching the first four:

0.75pts ew Meandre to win the Arc @ 50/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

1.5pts staked

Sent from my vintage IPad 

Prix De L` Abbeye

I shall look forward to seeing this sprint on TV on Sunday. I could not see anything when on track last year. It was as if the race was taking place in another county.

I've had a bet and will probably have another one tomorrow. The first bet is as follows:

1pt ew Hamza to win L'Abbeye @ 25/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Sent from my Hudl

Saturday horses

Been out of touch for a bit. Hence no posts since the first race at Wolverhampton last evening.

Despite the quantity of meetings tomorrow, it looks like I may only be interested in one race. I have had an early play on two runners against the field in the 7f  handicap at Ascot as follows:

15:50A 2.5pts win 1.5pts place Sirius Prospect @ 14/1 William Hill BOG
15:50A 2pts win Big Johnny D @ 8/1 Coral BOG

Total six points.

Elsewhere my ante-post choice in the Arc, Leading Light, has been drawn five. Historically it has been an advantage to be drawn in the first six. In fact in the last nine years only once has the winner been drawn higher than six - Workforce drawn eight in 2010. However the horses drawn 1-4 this year would all appear to be rags (they are available at 66/1 or more with the bookmakers and much bigger prices on betfair). I have only had 1.5 pts ew @ 25/1 LL. However if you did not get this I would not put you off a small bet with Coral @ 20/1.

I may post a couple more bets tomorrow but they are likely to be at Longchamp rather than on UK racing.

Thursday horses

Just one small bet today:

17:40W 0.75 pts ew Emily Davison @ 12/1 W Hill BOG

 1.5 pts staked, that's it.
Sent from Samsung Mobile

Secret saunters in at Salisbury

After the disappointment of yesterday I thought we were in for more misery after rubbish results at Nottingham and Newcastle. Fortunately Salisbury came to the rescue and the heavy rain certainly suited the main selection Magic Secret who led most of the way. The second selection in the race was the runner-up.

Quite a few withdrawals because of the ground so we did not get paid at the 22/1 taken. A 25p rule 4 is applied reducing the odds to 16.5/1. Still better than the 14/1 SP though.

Day's profit = 12.8 points, accumulative on the week is therefore a modest 8.8 points.

Off to the London Racing Club preview of the ARC (and other international races) tomorrow but will be looking at (only) Wolverhampton tomorrow.

Meanwhile Leading Light is 16/1 for the ARC from the 25/1 taken (Ladbrokes only 10/1)

Wednesday horses 2

At Nottingham and Newcastle:

15:00No 1pt ew Dancing Ciara @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

16:40No 1.5pts win Al Mukhdam @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

15:45Ne 1pt win Imaginary World @ 15/2 Paddy Power BOG

16:50Ne 0.75pts ew Mccool Bannanas @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

Any further bets at Newcastle will be posted around 17:00

Sent from my iPad

Wednesday horses

Horrible day yesterday, now four points down on the week. Salisbury is venue for first wagers today:

17:00S 1pt ew Magic Secret @ 22/1 William Hill BOG

17:05S 1pt win Pivotal Movement @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

More selections to follow.

Sent from my iPad

Tuesday horses 2

Selections at Ayr:

14:10A 1.5pts win Chookie's Lass @ 9/2 Paddy Power BOG (5/1 in places)

16:25A 0.75pts ew Poetic Belle @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

17:00A 2pts win 1pt place Cheeky Wee Red @ 8/1 William Hill BOG 

Total at Ayr six points.

Sent from my iPad

Tuesday horses

Strange market with yesterday's winner Marmalady. Hill and Lad opening early price was 11/4. I took 5/1 BOG yet SP was a huge 7/1, which we are paid thanks to BOG. Profit on the day seven points.

Starting today with this evening's meeting at Kempton:

20:50K 2pts win 1pt place Jarrow @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

21:20K 1pt ew Haadeeth @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

Five points staked, Ayr to follow.

Sent from my iPad

Monday horses 2

At Hamilton:

15:40H 2pts win Ralphy Boy @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:40H 1pt ew Indigo Blues @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Plus further bet at Bath:

17:00B 0.5pts ew Crystaliyev @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

It's possible I might have another bet but that would not be until during racing, unless anything I have backed so far is a non-runner. 

Sent from my iPad

Monday horses

First bets I have had today are at Bath:

16:30B 2pts win Marmalady @ 5/1 Coral BOG (bigger two other firms)

17:00B 1pt ew Fletcher Christian @ 16/1 888.com 

More to follow

Sent from my iPad

Arc

As I thought it might, Leading Light has been supplemented to run in next Sunday's Arc.

I have therefore just placed a bet at 25/1 as follows:

1.5pts ew Leading Light to win the Arc @ 25/1 Spreadex fixed odds (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Three points invested.

Sent from my iPad

Profits to date

A great start to Saturday (8/1 winner) but in the end a huge disappointment. Total of 18 points staked: returns 18 points. Nearest we got to another return was Tarooq (20/1) getting nosed out of third place for what would have been a six point win on the day.

So we won 21.57 points on the week to bring the annual total to 783 points (34.5%) which is more than I won in the three previous years blogged bets combined. At the beginning of the year I said I would concentrate on the flat season and indeed 605 of those winning points have come from flat horse racing bets. So, with just over a month of the season left, I think we can say objective achieved.

Here are the full results to date:

2013: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php

Flat season: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-Season-2013.php

No bets tomorrow but back Monday for possible action at Bath and Hamilton.

Saturday returns

We seemed to have recovered the 18 points laid out today with the very first bet. Cruise Tothelimit wins @ 8/1 (SP 13/2)!

Sent from my iPad

Saturday staking

I have staked 18 points today. We are winning 21.57 points coming into today (on the week). There will be no horse race bets tomorrow so if it all goes tits up today we will show a profit on the week of 3.57 points.....

Saturday horses 3

15:30H 1pt ew Cheviot @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG
15:30H 1.5pts win Masamah @ 9/1 Coral BOG

16:05H 1pt ew Tarooq @20/1 William Hill BOG
16:05H 1pt win Cheveton @ 12/1 Coral BOG

17:50H 1pt ew Mont Ras @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

Saturday horses 2

14:30C 2pts win Cruise Tothelimit @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

14:30C 1.5pts win Gabrial's Gift @ Betfred 6/1 BOG

16:15C 1.5pts win Bounty Girl @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

16:15C 1.5pts win Quatuor @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

Haydock to follow

Sent from my iPad

Saturday horses

Disappointing yesterday. Chester and Haydock of interest today but starting with two bets in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket:

15:50N 1pt ew Red Avenger @ 25/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

15:50N 0.5pts ew  King George River @ 16/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG 

Three points

Other meetings to follow.

Sent from my iPad

Friday horses

A couple of outsiders each-way today at Haydock and Wolverhampton:

16:10H 0.75pts ew Ask Dan @ 12/1 Coral BOG

20:10W 1.5pts win 1pt place Marshall Art @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG

20:10W 0.5pt straight forecast Father Fred to beat Marshall Art (WH)

Total 4.5 points staked

Sent from my iPad

The worst value bet of all time?

Shrewdly took the 12/1 Mad Moll in the 18:45W! 

Noticed it was 54/1 on betfair about 30 minutes before the race and available at 33/1 with the books. Surely no chance? Well it very nearly won, going down by a neck at the post. So no damage on the day thanks to BOG: total stakes 4.5, return 4.95. 

Sent from my iPad

Thursday horses

At Wolverhampton tonight:

18:15W 1.5pts win Invigilator @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

18:15W 0.75pts ew Sabrina's Secret @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:45W 0.75pts ew Madagascar Moll @ 12/1 Coral BOG

Total 4.5 points. No further interest unless non-runner(s) selected.

Sent from my iPad

Wednesday wrap

A winning day thanks to Joey's Destiny getting up by a nose in the 16:50 Goodwood race, 10/1 taken but ended up 5/1 favourite. Unfortunately there were some withdrawals and the dreaded R4 (15p) comes into play. We get paid at 17/2 for the win and 17/8 for the place. Returns 22.12 points. 

Unlike last week, we drew a blank at Kempton where the only each-way bet - Dancing Welcome who looked a possible winner 100 yards out and a certainty for a place - could only make fourth @ 12/1 in a finish of necks. 

Stakes today were 13 points, hence 9.12 profit. The week's profit therefore increases to 25.62 points. Happy days. 

Not much to get excited about tomorrow. Maybe a couple of Wolverhampton races. 

Wednesday horses 2

At Goodwood:

16:50G 0.5pts ew Fat Gary @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

17:20G 1pt win Griffin Point @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

17:20G 1pt win Solemn @ 12/1 William Hill BOG (14/1 Ladbrokes)

At Kempton:

19:00K 1.5pts win Jersey Cream @ 4/1 Coral BOG

19:00K 1pt win Syrian Pearl @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

20:30K 1pt ew Dancing Welcome @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

21:00K 1.5pts win Red Ramessess @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

21:00K 1pt win Beauty Pageant @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG

Total ten points. No further bets unless non-runner(s) selected.

Sent from my iPad

Wednesday horses

Great result at Beverley, 16/1 winner with both selections in the frame. Two withdrawals in the race but both were 16/1 so no Rule 4 deductions affecting our two 16/1 selections. Returns on the race 27 points, profit is therefore 22 on the day and 16.5 points on the week so far. 

Goodwood and Kempton tomorrow starting with:

16:50G  2pts win 1pt place Joey's Destiny @ 10/1 William Hill BOG 

Sent from my iPad

Tuesday races

Only one race of interest tomorrow. At Beverley:

16:10B 2pts win 1pt place Mujaadel @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

16:10B 1pt ew Sardanapalus @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

The first of these two selections is already attracting some interest and could start a fair bit shorter. 

Five points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Monday horses 2

14:40H 0.75pts ew Amelia Jay @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

17:10H 0.75pts ew Carrie's Magic @ 12/1 WilliamHill BOG

Total including Kempton 5.5 points. No more selections unless non-runner(s) selected.

Sent from my iPad

Monday horses

No good at Hamilton yesterday but an extraordinary week nonetheless and the best ever for the blog = 83.34 points profit. What we should not be doing now is increasing our stakes. If you were on any (or all) of the big price winners (33/1, 33/1 and 25/1) I will be very pleased, but it won't happen again. The blog is winning well over 30% ROI this year and I aim to win between 10-12% with my bets on an annual basis, so a downturn is quite feasible. 

First selection for today is at Kempton:

16:20K 2.5pts win Rivellino @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

More to follow.

Sent from my iPad

Sunday horses

At Hamilton:

14:20H 2pts win Overstep @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:50H 1pt ew Harbour Captain @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

15:20H 2pts win Monakova @ 11/2 William Hill BOG (6/1 VC) 

Six points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Saturday summary

Drowning in sea of Sauvignon Blanc, so will just summarise today's activity before nodding off. In last two days we have had winners at 33-1 (twice) and 25/1 to piddling little stakes. No matter - I am sure some of you have had more on than I have!

Today Ancient Cross obliged @ 33/1 and the other (more fancied) selection in the (ASC) race was third and very nearly second. Tropics was backed off the boards in the AGC from 15/1 to 6/1 favourite but ran into traffic problems. Raceclear tipped it up today which would have contributed to the gamble.

At Wolverhampton our fractured ew doubles bet produced: NR and 12/1 second (beaten neck) with NR and 10.8/1 second (12/1 less 10p R4). Four points outlay, returns 10.8 points. Plus 1.5 pts NR win singles.

In summary, today's stakes 15 pts, total returned 38.42 pts, profit 23.42 points.

Profit on week, with just Sunday to follow, +89.34 points. 

I may come up with something at Hamilton before going off to the tennis club end of season bash. Weather looks set fair. Afternoon will include tennis, of course, croquet (which I have not played since 1968) and a BBQ at which I hope to sample rare breed pork and apple sausages from one of our three butchers which performed well at the recent food festival tastings. Good stuff.

More wine required now.........

Sent from my IPad 

Saturday horses 2

Just to update figures from yesterday first. Hoppy's Flyer placed at Wolverhampton returns 4.2 points so stakes Friday were 13.25, returns 49.2, profit 35.95. Week's running total + 65.92 points. 

At Wolverhampton this evening:

18:20W 1pt win Where's Reiley @ 14/1 Boylesports BOG

18:20W 0.5pt win Reminisce @ 8.5/1 Bet365 BOG

18:50W 1pt win Jarrow @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

18:50W 0.5pt win Cocktail Charlie @ @ 14/1 888.com

Plus 4 x 0.5pts ew doubles above sels with Coral BOG

Prices in order: 12/1, 8/1, 10/1, 12/1 (4pts)

And Ayr:

14:40 0.5pt ew Ancient Cross @ 33/1 Paddy Power BOG (40/1 VC) 

Total eight points.

Sent from my iPad

Saturday horses

Just before I nod off, couple of early plays for tomorrow. Just in case I clash with Pricewise at 8pm release time:

15:50A 2pts ew Tropics @ 15/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

14:40A 1pt ew An Saighduir @ 14/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

Plus 0.5pts ew double at the above prices.

Seven points staked.

Final post for Friday

At Wolverhampton:

19:40W 1.5pts win Mr Red Clubs @ 3/1 Coral BOG
19:40W 0.75pts ew King Hei Fat Choi @ 8/1 Coral BOG

20:10W 1pt ew Hoppy's Flyer @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked.

Good night!

Wine

Despite the last two unsatisfactory results at Newcastle, you will not be surprised to learn I have just opened a bottle of wine to celebrate the massive Ayr winners earlier. Always one for value, it's a little number from that esteemed wine merchant Aldi. As you know most things at Aldi cost around  £1. So this is one of their more expensive lines @ £5.69. If you like Sauvignon Blanc, this is a banker:

https://www.aldi.co.uk/en/product-range/drinks/wine-cellar/white-wine/white-wine-product-detail-page/ps/p/freemans-bay-new-zealand-sauvignon-blanc/

Good health!

Newcastle further bets

Rather shell shocked at the moment having backed and recommended 25/1 and 33/1 winners at Ayr. Couple more plays at Newcastle:

17:30N 1pt ew Pivotal Prospect @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:00N 1pt win Edith Anne @ 7/1 Spreadex fixed odds 

Three points staked. 

If I have any additional bets at Wolverhampton I will publish after I have watched the 19:10W race

Sent from my iPad

Hazelrigg obliges at 25/1

There is an old saying - you never have enough on a winner! Still a 25/1 poke is handy. Couple more at Ayr, in the 16:00:

16:00A 0.75pts win Circuitous @ 33/1 William Hill BOG
16:00A 0.75 pts win Hadaj @ 28/1 Bet365 BOG (might get better on betfair)

1.5pts staked.

Further bets from Newc and Wolv possible later.

Friday horses

Only one winner blogged yesterday. Backed heavily from 5/1 to 2/1 and made most of running. Unfortunately an 11/2 chance would not go into the stalls which means we were hit with a 15p rule 4. Therefore 5/1 becomes 4.25/1. Loss on day (4.13) points. 

Meetings at Ayr, Newcastle and Wolverhampton are of interest however it is a tricky day and small stakes are the call:

14:20A 0.75pts win Hazelrigg @ 25/1 Coral BOG

14:20A 0.75pts win Even Stevens @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

15:50N 0.5pts win Thackeray @ 25/1 Betfred BOG

15:50N 0.75pts win Hayek @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

19:10W 0.75pts ew Lutine Bell @ 10/1 Coral BOG

Total 4.25 points.

Other races of interest are 16:00A, 17:30N/18:00N and 19:40W/20:10W. However if I play in these races, because of going/NR concerns, it will be after the relevant race above has been run. So further posts likely this afternoon /evening. 

Sent from my iPad

Thursday horses 2

Very speculative bets from Ayr:

14:40A 0.75pts ew Captain Royale @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

14:40A 1pt win Captain Scooby @ 13/2 Bet365 BOG

15:10A 0.75pts ew Joshua The First @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

15:40A 1pt win Old Man Clegg @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

And at Ponte:

15:00P 1pt ew Cono Zur @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

17:30P 0.5pts ew West End Lad @ 14/1 Coral BOG

That's it unless non-runner(s) selected.

Sent from my iPad

Thursday horses

Kempton went better than expected last night with two winners raising the day's profit to 30.6 points and 34.1 points on the week. Selections from Ayr, Kempton and Ponte today starting with:

17:30P 1.5pts win Satanic Beat @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

21:10K 1.5pts win 1pt place Koharu @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Sent from my iPad

Wednesday afternoon summary

A good start with two winners followed by a second and third at Beverley. Winning bets:

14:00B Tinsill w 13/2 (BOG)  Return 11.25 points

14:20S The Strig w 8/1 (but three NRs = 35p r4) so w 5.2/1 Return 18.6 points

16:10B and !6:45B ew double 7/1 (1/4 BOG 2nd) and 5/1 (1/5 3rd) Return 2.75 points

Total afternoon stakes: 11 points Returns: 32.6 points Profit: 21.6 points

Not particularly confident about Kempton tonight hence only 5.5 points across three races. Minimum 16 points profit on the day therefore.

Wenesday horses 4

Great start to the day with The Strig and Tinsell both winning comfortably. Two more at Beverley:

16:10B 1.5pts win Modern Lady @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

16:45B 1.5pts win Ingenti @ 5/1 William Hill BOG 

0.5pts ew double above two at prices.

Further four points.

Wednesday horses 3

14:00B 1.5pts win Tinsill @ 5/1 Betfred BOG

16:45B 0.75pts ew Lucky Dan @ 18/1 Coral BOG

Any further bets at Beverley will be published after the first race.

Three points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Wednesday horses 2

At Kempton:

20:15K 2pts win Trucanini @ 5/2 Coral BOG

20:15K 0.5pts ew Supernova Heights @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

20:45K 1pt win Aye Aye Digby @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

21:15K 1.5pts win Zhiggy's Stardust @ 4/1 Coral BOG

Total 5.5 points. 

Sent from my iPad

Wednesday horses

Overnight rain at Sandown means ground is soft which should suit the The Strig who won on similar ground at Brighton on Monday. In fact watched the race in William Hill, Shrewsbury whilst waiting to see the Father Fred race ten minutes later. The Strig won well enough and though he carries a penalty here will be assisted from the saddle by the excellent James Doyle for the first time:

14:20S 3pts win The Strig @ 8/1 Coral BOG

14:20S 0.5pts ew Royal Award @ 22/1 Bet365 BOG

Bets to follow at Beverley and Kempton.

Four points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Tuesday horses

Just one race as not keen on Chepstow today. At Thirsk:

14:10T 2pts win Chord Chart @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

14:10T 0.5pt reverse forecast above with Broadcaster (WH)

Three points staked.

Bookmakers could not give away yesterday's winner Father Fred during the day. In fact it opened on track at 10/1 before attracting support into 7/1. Monday profit is 6.5 points.

Went to see Stewart Lee last night. I can't think of too many comedians that make me laugh. He is an exception. Catch his live show if you can. Or his next TV series in Spring 2014! My first visit to Theatre Severn, Shrewsbury. Impressive venue. Critics might consider it a monument to civic extravagance as it was approved/constructed just before the latest financial crisis kicked in. I doubt very much that it pays its way or indeed that it would have been built in the austere times in which we live. A splendid asset for the town nonetheless. 

"I wish I had more sense of humor
Keeping the sadness at bay
Throwing the lightness on these things
Laughing it all away
Laughing it alI away
Laughing it all away"

Sent from my iPad

Monday horses

Don't fancy much today. Small interest Wolverhampton:

17:30W 1pt win Father Fred @ 15/2 Bet365 BOG

17:30W 0.5pts ew Very First Blade @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Secret Missile strikes

Well yes it does, but not at 10/1.

Half the field didn't run so it meant only five went to post and thus hefty rule 4s. For 10/1 read 9/2. You could have taken the latter price as it was the opening show on course before being heavily punted into 11/4. Pleased to end the week with a winner though - even if it was only by a nose!

Figures for the week: Stakes 77.5 Returns 108.1 Profit 30.6 points 

Website updated with accumulative positions. Might play at Wolverhampton tomorrow depending how the fields shape up.

Sunday horses 2

Second choice at Curragh is a non-runner. Suspect forecast rain is not going to arrive, at least not in time for the going to change. Switched stake to:

14:45C 1pt win Rummaging @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Other selection still 12/1 in two places. Can't see that lasting.

Sent from my iPad

Sunday horses

Carnage yesterday, thankful for the winners earlier in the week. Nevertheless going to tackle the hardest race of the day at The Curragh:

14:45C 2pts win Bird's Eye View @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

14:45C 1pt win Caesaria @ 14/1 Coral BOG

Had no luck at Bath this season, the jockey even managed to drop his whip on yesterday's selection not that he would have won with it. Hoping that this C&D winner can at least reach the frame:

17:20B 1pt ew Secret Missile @ 10/1 Coral BOG

Total five points.

Sent from my iPad

The Swell Season - "Gold" e "What happens when the heart just stops" (Li...

A couple of tracks from The Swell Season (Glen Hansard).

Worth checking out his new album, Rhythm And Repose, which I thoroughly recommend. About eight quid on Amazon.

Saturday selections

These are the bet I have had today:

15:30C 2pts win 1pt place Mick's Yer Man @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

15:30C 1pt ew Song Of Rowland 11/1 Bet365 BOG

16:45C 2pts win 1pt place Jack My Boy @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:45C 1pt ew Electric Qatar @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

17:50L 3pts win Ladweb @ 11/2 Coral BOG

14:40D 1.5pts ew Barnet Fair @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

14:40D 1pt ew Elusivity @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

17:05B 1.5pts win Ginzan @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

20:30K 1pt ew Elusive Hawk @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

Including last night's thee point bet, total is 24.5 points on today's racing. No further bets unless any non-runners have been selected.

Sent from my iPad

Friday review/Saturday selections

No joy today, thought we had a bit of a chance with Yeeoow in the Donny race when he burst through, however he could eventually only finish third for a 3.75 point return and hence a (3.75) point loss on the day.  

The Wolverhampton selection turned out to be a good value loser in the end, finishing fourth at 10/1 whereas I took 14/1. But that masks the story of a monumental drift during the day with the selection reaching 30.0 on betfair and more than 20/1 with some bookmakers. It really is quite amazing how these markets can move during the day. In the end it didn't matter as it turned out to be a nil return on the race with the fourth place. 

It's going to be a winning week however. Despite the small losses of the last two days we come into Saturday 52.48 points in front on the week. There are up to six races I am interested in today (about half as many as last Saturday thank god). And maybe one race on Sunday. 

The first bet is at Kempton's evening meeting:

20:30K 3pts win Levi Draper @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

More action later.

Sent from my iPad

Friday horses

As follows:

16:25D 2pts win 1pt place Yeeoow @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

16:25D 1.5pts win Elusive Flame @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

18:00W 1.5pts ew Indian Affair @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

No further selections unless a non-runner selected. Total 7.5 points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Thursday review

Just about got away with it yesterday. Poor selections from Doncaster and Wolverhampton. I was going to swerve Chepstow but thank goodness I didn't because the Welsh venue saved the day. One selection there - Rising Dawn - won at the absurdly short-price of 7/2F. I took 9/1 which was available for a long time, the gamble only developing late on. So we have 13.25 points back for the total outlay of 16 points (2.75).

Only two races appeal today, which is just as well as the Ludlow Food Festival starts and there could be up to three gigs to attend later including at the brewery and culminating in Grey Wolf at the Queens. Selections available shortly.

Grey Wolf at The Wine Bar