First quarter results 2013

No bet today. Time for a cursory glance therefore at the 2013 first quarter performance:

Stakes: 302 pts Returns: 442 pts Profit: 140 pts % return: 46.7%

Details of all 2013 bets are here:

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php

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Saturday wrap

Looked like it was going to be a really poor day. Doncaster and Kempton producing nil returns.

Then the last two selections at Meydan won @ 7/2 and 11/2 to complete a 0.25pt win treble (with the first selection obliging @ 3/1). The return is 29.25 points on the multiple bet which means we are in front on the day.

We live to fight on!

Saturday

13:20D 2pts win 1.5pt place Ancient Cross @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:35K 2pts win Yeeoow @ 7/2 Paddy Power BOG

16:35K 1pt ew Seek The Fair Land @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Total 7.5 points staked

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Lincoln

I've not got a very strong view on tomorrow's race, however I do like the look of Gosden's lightly-raced progressive Lahaag. It's hard to come to any firm conclusions about the draw but the selection maybe OK in stall six. Soft ground should suit.

As the race is sponsored by William Hill they are likely to continue to offer the best prices about the market leaders. Unfortunately their each-way terms are currently 1/4 odds first four whereas PP and Sky offer first five. Consequently I have split my bet as follows:

15:05D 1.5 pts win Lahaag @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
15:05D 1pt each-way Lahaag @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Total 3.5 points staked

ATP Miami

Yesterday I watched both Murray and Gasquet win their respective quarter-final matches in Miami. The Frenchman gave a most impressive performance in dismissing Berdych in straight sets. Murray and Gasquet have met seven times with the H2H score 4-3 in Murray's favour. Interestingly the only times they have met on a hard court (twice) the Frenchman has prevailed. 

As well as the Scot is playing I think Gasquet's chance of beating Murray is better than the current 3/1 on offer. 

I have had:

3pts win Gasquet to beat Murray Miami ATP @ 3/1 William Hill

1pt win Gasquet to win Miami ATP @ 9/1 William Hill

Four points staked.

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Dubai 2

Having looked through the rest of the Dubai card, I have found that the horses I favour are all favourites or near-favourites. Which does not really give me an edge. However William Hill are either best price or close to best price for these selections. Plus, more importantly, they are BOG which other firms do not seem to offer just yet.

I have had 35 x 0.25 pt win trebles on the following selections:

30th Mar 2013 - Dubai World Cup:  Animal Kingdom @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

30th Mar 2013 - Sheema Classic:  St Nicholas Abbey @ 7/2 William Hill BOG

30th Mar 2013 - Dubai Duty Free:  Ocean Park @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

30th Mar 2013 - Dubai Gold Cup:  Imperial Monarch @ 9/4 William Hill BOG

30th Mar 2013 - Golden Shaheen:  Mental @ 9/4 William Hill BOG

30th Mar 2013 - Godolphin Mile: Soft Falling Rain @ 3/1 William Hill BOG

30th Mar 2013 - UAE Derby:  Secret Number @ 2/1 William Hill BOG

Total stakes 8.75 points. One winning treble at the three shortest prices taken will return just under eight points.

Dubai

Will be having a couple of bets at the Dubai World Cup meeting starting with:

AL QUOZ SPRINT

1.5pts win 1pt place Spirit Quartz @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

0.75pts ew Medicean Man @ 33/1 Paddy Power

Four points staked.

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Irish Lincoln

I am just back from Porterhouse Central having quaffed some superb Oyster Stout. One of the tracks on the video was the exceptional "The Living Years" by Mike & The Mechanics. One of the great songs of the 80s I think. However I can't remember it having an impact on me at the time but it has subsequently:

"Say it loud, say it clear
You can listen as well as you hear
It's too late when we die
To admit we don't see eye to eye

So we open up a quarrel
Between the present and the past
We only sacrifice the future
It's the bitterness that lasts...."

On another screen there was Tiger Woods closing in on a Florida tournament which I suspect he might seal tomorrow. Happy with my speculative TW majors' multiples. 

Anyway off to the Irish Lincoln at the Curragh tomorrow (weather permitting). 

I backed second, third and fourth when on-track last year and I am rowing in with the runner-up again. This time Ansaab is drawn one and the last time the race was run in really heavy ground the low berths dominated. So I have had:

16:30C 1.5pts win 1pt place Ansaab @ 10/1 William Hill BOG 

(Available @ 11/1 with Stan Jokes if you can trade there.) 

I note Pricewise has picked the horse drawn 15 and he may prove right as the pace could feasibly be with the high drawn runners. Let's hope the desperate ground means Ansaab is right in there from the one slot. Should be an interesting day.

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Wolverhampton/Doncaster

One for tonight, one for tomorrow:

20:30W 0.75pts ew Island Legend @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

14:05D 1pt ew Colonel Mak @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Total 3.5pts staked

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Doncaster 17:20

Not with any great confidence:

17:20D 1.5pts win Warfare @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

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Doncaster 7f

On the train from Cork to Dublin. Rain finally clearing away. 

Couple of bets in the16:10D:

16:10D 1pt ew Piceno @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:10D 0.5pt ew Day Of The Eagle @ 9/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total three points

May play the 17:20D after the above race.

Also had one point tennis bet in Miami Ladies as follows:

0.5pt ew Li Na to win ladies' singles @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Chinese has been on a break since her injury in Aus Open final but looked good in her comeback  match yesterday. Will face SW before the final, however, should both progress.

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Flat season 2013

Well here we are on the eve of the turf flat season. I said I would be keeping my powder dry for this but with some decent trading to date I find myself nicely in front in 2013. I'll be looking at the Doncaster card in the morning (if it's on). Meanwhile a small each-way in the 6f contest:

15:35D 0.75pts ew Threes Grand @ 25/1 Bet365 BOG

Total 1.5pts staked.

As for today's selection I was in a hurry so I forgot to nominate my bookmaker of choice. As it happens It didn't matter as we were on a loser. 

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Kempton

Good day yesterday with two winners from three selections. Fifteen points profit. The one that lost got beat @ 4/6!

19:00K 1.5pts win Scottish Lake

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Kempton

18:15K 3pts win Spellmaker @ 2/1 William Hill BOG

18:45K 2pts win Mambo Spirit @ 6/1 William Hill BOG

20:15k 2pts win Melvin The Grate @ 3/1 William Hill BOG

Seven points staked.

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Monday wrap

Nice winner @ 5/1 today (by a head) provides seven points profit on the day.

Some consolation for the Polish Pusher's effort at Indian Wells last night. Didn't bother to watch the match but saw from the stats that Pova had 33 winners in the match against Woza's two. I thought that Woza had begun to attack more but obviously that is not the case. She can't win a grand slam as a pusher that's for sure.

Profit for year now tops 50% of turnover, which is great but cannot last of course....

Kempton 6f

17:20K 1pt ew Mack's Sister @11/1 Betfred BOG

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Wolverhampton 6f

Small bet:

16:30 1pt win Little Garçon @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

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Kempton 7f

Change of stable could prove significant:

16:20K 2pts win Atlantis Crossing @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

More later.

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Wolverhampton

Low key day after the excitement of Cheltenham. 

19:50W 2pts win Jonnie Skull @ 13/2 Paddy Power BOG

You can get 7/1 with Skybet (without BOG protection) or Stan Jokes (if they will lay you a bet).

Possible further bet at the all-weather gaff later.

At Indian Wells Woza duly battled into the final having been a set and 2-0 down to Kerber. Place bet at 33/1 has been landed. Now she has an outside shot at the title against Pova tomorrow but will have to start a bit quicker against the Russian to have any chance at all. Maria leads the H2H 4-2.

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Cheltenham Friday

We are already on Captain Chris (16/1) and Long Run (10/1) each-way for the Gold Cup. It looks like further rain could arrive to turn the ground to soft by around 3pm - in time for the feature race. Soft ground will definitely suit Long Run who should be running on when others have cried enough. I have had a further bet this morning on the former Gold Cup winner:

15:20C 2pts ew Long Run @ 6/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3) 

 Another contender that will appreciate soft ground is Cape Tribulation:

15:20C 0.5pts ew Cape Tribulation @ 16/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

I think, however, if the ground turns genuinely soft then Long Run will become the plunge horse and could start as short as 4/1. The rest of the card looks horrendously difficult so good luck if you play in the other races.

Total five points staked.

Whatever happens in the Gold Cup today it will have been a very profitable festival. 

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Thursday round-up

Not a bad day. Smad Place sneaked into third for an ew return @ 16/1 (SP 9/1). The Irish duly went over the nine-winner mark to land the 10pt bet. And then this evening the Wolverhampton selection went under by just 1/2-length @ 14/1 ew (SP 9/1). The full Cheltenham portfolio is showing over 70% profit with a couple of selections to run in the Gold Cup tomorrow. You can review the complete portfolio here:

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Cheltenham-2013.php

I don't know at this stage whether I will be blogging further Cheltenham selections tomorrow.

Over at Indian Wells Vika, as expected, did not prove to be value as odds-on favourite for the tournament. In fact she withdrew this evening with a foot injury. When I suggested the big-priced ew bets on Wozniacki and Stosur I thought there was a possibility Vika might pull out. The irony is though that Stosur has also pulled out - with a calf injury! So we are just left with Wozniacki ew @ 33/1. She will be around 5/1 to win the tournament but has to get past Kerber for the ew return and a place in the final. You could of course hedge your bet on Kerber at around evens for the match.

Wozniacki will need to show her battling qualities against Kerber in their semi-final at Indian Wells.

Wolverhampton 5f

One bet tonight on the all-weather:

20:15W 1pt ew Ches Jicaro @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

At Cheltenham the Irish have trained seven winners, so we need a couple more over the next two days to ensure a certain profit at the festival. Today we have two running for us in the World Hurdle: Smad Place @ 16/1 ew - now down to 9/1 - and Bog Warrior who unfortunately won't have his preferred soft ground. In the Ryanair we have an outside chance of a place with Ghizao @33/1. Well Ruby rode a 25/1 winner yesterday so why not a 33/1 winner today!

Good luck today.

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Kempton 6f

An OK day at Cheltenham.

A couple of 10/1 places (ew Rule The World and Hadrian's Approach) kept me out of trouble today.

Very disappointing size fields tonight at Kempton so just a small interest in the 19:20 race:

19:20K 2pts win The Happy Hammer @ 5/1 Paddy Power BOG
19:20K 1pt win Speak The Truth @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Three points staked

Sizing Europe

Sizing Europe is clear second favourite for the QMCC and the obvious choice to chase home the favourite. Betfair sportsbook (please note this is not the exchange but their fixed-odds site) is offering money back (up to £100) if your horse finishes second. They also offer BOG.

I have therefore just had:

4pts win Sizing Europe @ 13/2 Betfair fixed odds (money refunded if horse finishes second) BOG

Obviously if something happens to the favourite we have a solid chance of the win.

QM Champion Chase

Really felt for Nina in the first. She gave her horse a terrific ride. Amazingly it was done @ 1.01 on betfair in-running. Did not have a bet myself but would have liked to have seen her rewarded for her front-running exploits.

I am probably going to have one more play in the QMCC so will post a bit nearer the race.

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WTA Indian Wells 2

Mona Barthel has gone out to Sam Stosur in three sets last night so we are down to one pre-tournament selection - Kvitova, in the bottom half of the draw, who is now no better than 9/2. She has a chance of reaching the final if it's not too hot when she plays her matches.

In the top half of the draw Azarenka, on a 17-0 winning streak, is too short a price to win the tournament - as low as 8/11. 

Sam Stosur is usually not one to have on your side. She has won very few (singles) tournaments in her long career. These relatively slow hard courts with their high bounce suit her game though. 

I have had:

1.5pts ew Sam Stosur @ 33/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1,2)

(28s elsewhere is OK)

Vika is scheduled to meet Woza next and the latter holds the winning H2H although they have not played for two years:

1pt ew Caroline Wozniaki @ 33/1 Boylesports (1/3 odds 1,2)

(25s elsewhere is OK)

Five points staked

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Cheltenham day two

First of all that was a nice bonus at Wolverhampton with Avonvalley obliging in the first. Not least because the SP was 20/1! Hence 25pts profit on the race.

Tomorrow we have Rule The World @ 10/1 in the Neptune (now best price 6/1) as well as Unioniste @ 11/2 (now 7/2) and Hadrian's Approach @ 10/1 (now 6/1) in the RSA.

In the QM Champion Chase we have the evens SS to very small money and Mail de Bievre @ 14/1 (now 20/1). However we have first three places for MdB against first two places available now. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, if SS does not win it is highly likely that he has fallen. So I have had some very small forecasts excluding the favourite as follows:

15:20C Sizing Europe; Mail de Bievre 0.5pt reverse forecast = 1pt

15:20C Sizing Europe; Mail de Bievre; Wishful Thinking; Sanctuaire; Somersby 20 x 0.1pt reverse forecast = 2pts

To summarize the 15:20, if the fav wins we make 1pt (unless MdB is placed)! If SS or 100/1 shot Tataniano is in the first two the forecasts are down.....

The SS bet and the forecasts are really just a bit of fun but if SS is out of the fist two then there is a chance of a big forecast dividend for a tiny stake.

Wolverhampton 2

Only just noticed selection is non-runner in 17:50 so backing this one instead:

17:50W 1pt ew Avonvalley @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked

Cheltenham day one

A good start to the festival with my 14/1 suggestion Champagne Fever leading all the way in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. The SP was just 5/1. Jezki finished third at the same price.

It's a shame that Zarkandar could only run fourth in the Champion Hurdle, upsetting the each-way bet with Paddy Power. At least Hurricane Fly won the race which means we get half our money back (four of the eight points staked) from Paddy.

Bog Warrior has been declared for the World Hurdle and despite the fact that the ground may not be soft enough for him, I can't let him go unsupported as I have such a high opinion of him.

1.5pts win Bog Warrior, World Hurdle @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG, NRNB

Whatever wins the last the bookmakers have done their brains today. Some of the concessions were incredible, particularly the five places on each-way bets in the Supreme offered by William Hill.

Wolverhampton

Let's not forget Wolverhampton amidst all the excitement. Perlachy is reasonably well handicapped in the 17:50 and could run into a place at a big price under his seven pound claimer:

17:50W 0.75pts ew Perlachy @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG

1.5pts staked

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William Hill offer in Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Despite the fact that the Supreme has cut up to just 12 runners, William Hill continues to offer 1/4 odds for the first five places on this race. This is a remarkable concession. Effectively it's really only a ten-runner race as the last two on the racecard are both available at 999/1 on betfair. Understandably Hills have shortened up the first five or six in their betting, however they also offer best odds guaranteed in this race so if you fancy anything each-way here it's worth investing with Hills and taking their price.

I'm hoping for a big run from Ruby on Champagne Fever which I suggested at 14/1 last Friday and is now generally half those odds and just 5/1 with WH. 

I can't resist another small bet though because of the generous place terms still available:

1pt ew Cause Of Causes @ 25/1 William Hill (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG, NRNB

What's more if you place this bet through their mobile site and the selection finishes second, you will get the win stake back as a free bet for use on Wednesday!

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Queen Mother Champion Chase

Before the 48-hour declarations at 10am today I am going to have an ew bet in the Sprinter Sacre race as follows:

Champion Chase 1pt ew Mail De Bievre @ 14/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3) NRNB

This gives me 7/2 for the place part of the bet. If you wish to follow me in then I suggest a bet before 10am today.

Tiger

I am getting on the Tiger bandwagon, just in case today's win is not another false dawn:

2013 Major wins as follows:

Tiger Woods two wins 2pts @ 12/1 William Hill

Tiger Woods three wins 1pt @ 40/1 William Hill

Tiger Woods four wins 0.5pts @ 100/1 William Hill

Total 3.5pts invested

Sprinter

If you have not already seen the offer, Coral is still offering evens Sprinter Sacre for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. It is generally a 1/4 chance. As you may know from my ten golden rules of betting (see website) I do not back horses at less than 2/1.

Sprinter has to be an exception, but of course your stake will be limited, in this case to a maximum of £20. It is available by phone or internet so you may get two bets if you have separate Coral accounts for phone and internet access.

I think SS will probably win ten lengths or more. If it doesn't win I think it will have been a faller. My plan is to have a combination forecast excluding the favourite on the day. The profitability of this blog is based on £5 a point (up £3,400+ since Dec 2009) - i.e. it is not really for punters that bet in thousands. Therefore I have had four points - representing £20 at evens -  and will invest most of the potential winnings on a forecast on Wednesday:

Queen Mother Champion Chase 4pts win Sprinter Sacre @ Evens Coral special offer

Four points invested

Irish Trained winners at Cheltenham

The Irish did not do well last year with just five winners. However with the change in the going they should do much better this year. In fact I am rather annoyed I didn't take 3/1 soft or softer ground on day one with PP, now big odds-on. The C of C always is looking for good to soft but he will probably not get it on Tuesday.

I have just played Irish trained winners - nine or more - 10pts @ 11/10 Paddy Power

Let's hope they can get nearer the record total in 2011 of 13 winners!

Ten points staked

Next Con leader

In July 2011 I had three points on Theresa May to be next Con leader with William Hill @ 20/1. You will see the unresolved bet on the c/f 2013 bets list. WH currently offer 4/1. 

I have had a small top-up with Paddy Power as I think she might be gearing up to make a play:

1.5pts Theresa May to be next Con leader @ 12/1 Paddy Power

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Cheltenham portfolio 2

Money for both the 4pter Zarkander and the 2pter Champagne Fever which is interesting and encouraging. In my haste this morning I forgot to post two bets, which have, of course, shortened in price. These were Ghizao @ 40/1 and Paul Nicholls top trainer at 10/1. Therefore I will post the bets at their current prices:

Ryanair Chase 0.75pts ew Ghizao @ 33/1 Coral NRNB

1.5pts Paul Nicholls top Cheltenham trainer @ 9/1 888.com

I notice Paddy Power has just gone 20/1 Bog Warrior for the Gold Cup. An extraordinary move as it has also been backed for the World Hurdle (generally 8/1). You can get 66s Bog Warrior for the Gold Cup with one firm. It's not jumped a fence for a while so it would be remarkable if it took its chance in the big one. No harm in having the following on a NRNB basis:

0.5pts ew Bog Warrior Gold Cup @ 50/1 Totesport NRNB (66/1 VC bet if you are a losing punter)

Four points staked

Cheltenham portfolio

I plan to keep my powder relatively dry for the flat season, therefore a modest portfolio to add to the bets already placed:

Tuesday

Supreme 2pts win 1pt place Champagne Fever @ 14/1 Coral NRNB

Wednesday

Neptune 1pt ew Rule The World @ 10/1 William Hill

RSA Chase 1pt ew Hadrian's Approach @ 10/1 Paddy Power NRNB
RSA Chase 1p win Unioniste @ 11/2 William Hill

Thursday

World Hurdle 1pt ew Smad Place @ 16/1 William Hill NRNB

Friday

Gold Cup 1pt ew Captain Chris @ 16/1 William Hill NRNB

Total 12 points

Champion Hurdle

Will be having a couple of Cheltenham bets over the next couple of days. Tonight's is not terribly original, however I feel I have to take advantage of the PP concession of money back on losing selections if Hurricane Fly wins the Champion Hurdle. With only 10-runners and 1/4 odds 1,2,3 for ew bets, it's a toss up for me whether to back Zarkandar or Rock On Ruby. In the belief that there should be give in the ground I have gone for the former:

4pts ew Zarkandar, Champion Hurdle @ 4/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

(Win stake refunded if Hurricane Fly wins the race.)

Eight points staked.

Kempton 2

Steelcut is a non-runner in the 19:30K so have decided to have a saver on the current favourite partly financed by my free bet from Coral!:

19:30K 2pts win Mr Optimistic @ 7/2 Coral BOG

Kempton/ Gold Cup

Trying for an unlikely fifth winning day at Kempton:

19:30K 2.5pts win 1pt place Diamond Vine @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

19:30K 1pt ew Steelcut @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

Whilst on the WH site could not resist a little ew on Long Run @ 10/1. Never been out of the first three. Perhaps next Friday will be the first time:

1pt ew Long Run, Cheltenham Gold Cup @ 10/1 William Hill NRNB (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

5.5 pts Kempton, two pts Cheltenham 

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WTA Indian Wells

Playing one in each half of the draw. Aza is very strong in the market with Serena absent. Will take a chance with these two though:

1pt ew Petra Kvitova @ 9/1 Paddy Power NRNB (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pt ew Mona Barthel @ 50/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

Nadal is back (competitively) on hard courts for the first time in the men's event. However Djoko is on a roll and might win again here. No bet in the men's.

Three points staked in the ladies' event.

Elsewhere a good night for Watford (won 2-1) in the Championship with Cardiff, Hull and Leicester all failing to win. My selection now a top price 7/1 to topple the Welsh chokers...

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Cheltenham

Just had my first bet for Cheltenham as WH are offering Jezki @ 7/1 for the Supreme. This is JP's second string but one I like from seeing it win in December at Fairyhouse (see LRC article on my website). Just a small interest because of the attractive price:

Cheltenham, Supreme Novices' Hurdle: 1pt ew Jezki @ 7/1 William Hill NRNB (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Ladbrokes go 100/30 (1/5 odds 1,2,3) this one, not NRNB. How do they lay a bet? Oh, I forgot they do not lay bets they just run shabby high street arcades...

Two points staked.

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Kempton success

Fourth consecutive winning day at Kempton. Today: 6/1 winner (9/2 taken but BOG odds) plus two selections placed at 20/1. Plus a £20 free bet from Coral!

Profit on the day 15.75pts

Kempton 2

Further bets at the all-weather gaff:

15:50K 2.5pts win Al Khan @ 9/2 William Hill BOG

15:50K 0.75pts ew Midnight Feast @ 20/1 Coral BOG

17:30K 0.75pts ew Rowe Park @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

5.5 pts staked

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Kempton

First bets today are in 17:00K:

17:00K 3pts win Hamoody @ 4/1 Coral BOG

17:00K 0.75pts ew Decent Fella @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

If you are staking £10  or more with Coral and are not a member of their Champions' Club, join the latter before betting £10+ and you will get a £5 free bet. This is increased to £10 if their horse Crew Cut is placed in this race and to £20 if their horse wins.

4.5pts staked.

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