Monday horses 2

At Hamilton:

15:40H 2pts win Ralphy Boy @ 4/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:40H 1pt ew Indigo Blues @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

Plus further bet at Bath:

17:00B 0.5pts ew Crystaliyev @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

It's possible I might have another bet but that would not be until during racing, unless anything I have backed so far is a non-runner. 

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Monday horses

First bets I have had today are at Bath:

16:30B 2pts win Marmalady @ 5/1 Coral BOG (bigger two other firms)

17:00B 1pt ew Fletcher Christian @ 16/1 888.com 

More to follow

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Arc

As I thought it might, Leading Light has been supplemented to run in next Sunday's Arc.

I have therefore just placed a bet at 25/1 as follows:

1.5pts ew Leading Light to win the Arc @ 25/1 Spreadex fixed odds (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Three points invested.

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Profits to date

A great start to Saturday (8/1 winner) but in the end a huge disappointment. Total of 18 points staked: returns 18 points. Nearest we got to another return was Tarooq (20/1) getting nosed out of third place for what would have been a six point win on the day.

So we won 21.57 points on the week to bring the annual total to 783 points (34.5%) which is more than I won in the three previous years blogged bets combined. At the beginning of the year I said I would concentrate on the flat season and indeed 605 of those winning points have come from flat horse racing bets. So, with just over a month of the season left, I think we can say objective achieved.

Here are the full results to date:

2013: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php

Flat season: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-Season-2013.php

No bets tomorrow but back Monday for possible action at Bath and Hamilton.

Saturday returns

We seemed to have recovered the 18 points laid out today with the very first bet. Cruise Tothelimit wins @ 8/1 (SP 13/2)!

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Saturday staking

I have staked 18 points today. We are winning 21.57 points coming into today (on the week). There will be no horse race bets tomorrow so if it all goes tits up today we will show a profit on the week of 3.57 points.....

Saturday horses 3

15:30H 1pt ew Cheviot @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG
15:30H 1.5pts win Masamah @ 9/1 Coral BOG

16:05H 1pt ew Tarooq @20/1 William Hill BOG
16:05H 1pt win Cheveton @ 12/1 Coral BOG

17:50H 1pt ew Mont Ras @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

Saturday horses 2

14:30C 2pts win Cruise Tothelimit @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

14:30C 1.5pts win Gabrial's Gift @ Betfred 6/1 BOG

16:15C 1.5pts win Bounty Girl @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

16:15C 1.5pts win Quatuor @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

Haydock to follow

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Saturday horses

Disappointing yesterday. Chester and Haydock of interest today but starting with two bets in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket:

15:50N 1pt ew Red Avenger @ 25/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG

15:50N 0.5pts ew  King George River @ 16/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) BOG 

Three points

Other meetings to follow.

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Friday horses

A couple of outsiders each-way today at Haydock and Wolverhampton:

16:10H 0.75pts ew Ask Dan @ 12/1 Coral BOG

20:10W 1.5pts win 1pt place Marshall Art @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG

20:10W 0.5pt straight forecast Father Fred to beat Marshall Art (WH)

Total 4.5 points staked

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The worst value bet of all time?

Shrewdly took the 12/1 Mad Moll in the 18:45W! 

Noticed it was 54/1 on betfair about 30 minutes before the race and available at 33/1 with the books. Surely no chance? Well it very nearly won, going down by a neck at the post. So no damage on the day thanks to BOG: total stakes 4.5, return 4.95. 

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Thursday horses

At Wolverhampton tonight:

18:15W 1.5pts win Invigilator @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

18:15W 0.75pts ew Sabrina's Secret @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:45W 0.75pts ew Madagascar Moll @ 12/1 Coral BOG

Total 4.5 points. No further interest unless non-runner(s) selected.

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Wednesday wrap

A winning day thanks to Joey's Destiny getting up by a nose in the 16:50 Goodwood race, 10/1 taken but ended up 5/1 favourite. Unfortunately there were some withdrawals and the dreaded R4 (15p) comes into play. We get paid at 17/2 for the win and 17/8 for the place. Returns 22.12 points. 

Unlike last week, we drew a blank at Kempton where the only each-way bet - Dancing Welcome who looked a possible winner 100 yards out and a certainty for a place - could only make fourth @ 12/1 in a finish of necks. 

Stakes today were 13 points, hence 9.12 profit. The week's profit therefore increases to 25.62 points. Happy days. 

Not much to get excited about tomorrow. Maybe a couple of Wolverhampton races. 

Wednesday horses 2

At Goodwood:

16:50G 0.5pts ew Fat Gary @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

17:20G 1pt win Griffin Point @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

17:20G 1pt win Solemn @ 12/1 William Hill BOG (14/1 Ladbrokes)

At Kempton:

19:00K 1.5pts win Jersey Cream @ 4/1 Coral BOG

19:00K 1pt win Syrian Pearl @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

20:30K 1pt ew Dancing Welcome @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

21:00K 1.5pts win Red Ramessess @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

21:00K 1pt win Beauty Pageant @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG

Total ten points. No further bets unless non-runner(s) selected.

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Wednesday horses

Great result at Beverley, 16/1 winner with both selections in the frame. Two withdrawals in the race but both were 16/1 so no Rule 4 deductions affecting our two 16/1 selections. Returns on the race 27 points, profit is therefore 22 on the day and 16.5 points on the week so far. 

Goodwood and Kempton tomorrow starting with:

16:50G  2pts win 1pt place Joey's Destiny @ 10/1 William Hill BOG 

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Tuesday races

Only one race of interest tomorrow. At Beverley:

16:10B 2pts win 1pt place Mujaadel @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

16:10B 1pt ew Sardanapalus @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

The first of these two selections is already attracting some interest and could start a fair bit shorter. 

Five points staked.

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Monday horses 2

14:40H 0.75pts ew Amelia Jay @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

17:10H 0.75pts ew Carrie's Magic @ 12/1 WilliamHill BOG

Total including Kempton 5.5 points. No more selections unless non-runner(s) selected.

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Monday horses

No good at Hamilton yesterday but an extraordinary week nonetheless and the best ever for the blog = 83.34 points profit. What we should not be doing now is increasing our stakes. If you were on any (or all) of the big price winners (33/1, 33/1 and 25/1) I will be very pleased, but it won't happen again. The blog is winning well over 30% ROI this year and I aim to win between 10-12% with my bets on an annual basis, so a downturn is quite feasible. 

First selection for today is at Kempton:

16:20K 2.5pts win Rivellino @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

More to follow.

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Sunday horses

At Hamilton:

14:20H 2pts win Overstep @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

14:50H 1pt ew Harbour Captain @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG

15:20H 2pts win Monakova @ 11/2 William Hill BOG (6/1 VC) 

Six points staked.

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Saturday summary

Drowning in sea of Sauvignon Blanc, so will just summarise today's activity before nodding off. In last two days we have had winners at 33-1 (twice) and 25/1 to piddling little stakes. No matter - I am sure some of you have had more on than I have!

Today Ancient Cross obliged @ 33/1 and the other (more fancied) selection in the (ASC) race was third and very nearly second. Tropics was backed off the boards in the AGC from 15/1 to 6/1 favourite but ran into traffic problems. Raceclear tipped it up today which would have contributed to the gamble.

At Wolverhampton our fractured ew doubles bet produced: NR and 12/1 second (beaten neck) with NR and 10.8/1 second (12/1 less 10p R4). Four points outlay, returns 10.8 points. Plus 1.5 pts NR win singles.

In summary, today's stakes 15 pts, total returned 38.42 pts, profit 23.42 points.

Profit on week, with just Sunday to follow, +89.34 points. 

I may come up with something at Hamilton before going off to the tennis club end of season bash. Weather looks set fair. Afternoon will include tennis, of course, croquet (which I have not played since 1968) and a BBQ at which I hope to sample rare breed pork and apple sausages from one of our three butchers which performed well at the recent food festival tastings. Good stuff.

More wine required now.........

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Saturday horses 2

Just to update figures from yesterday first. Hoppy's Flyer placed at Wolverhampton returns 4.2 points so stakes Friday were 13.25, returns 49.2, profit 35.95. Week's running total + 65.92 points. 

At Wolverhampton this evening:

18:20W 1pt win Where's Reiley @ 14/1 Boylesports BOG

18:20W 0.5pt win Reminisce @ 8.5/1 Bet365 BOG

18:50W 1pt win Jarrow @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

18:50W 0.5pt win Cocktail Charlie @ @ 14/1 888.com

Plus 4 x 0.5pts ew doubles above sels with Coral BOG

Prices in order: 12/1, 8/1, 10/1, 12/1 (4pts)

And Ayr:

14:40 0.5pt ew Ancient Cross @ 33/1 Paddy Power BOG (40/1 VC) 

Total eight points.

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Saturday horses

Just before I nod off, couple of early plays for tomorrow. Just in case I clash with Pricewise at 8pm release time:

15:50A 2pts ew Tropics @ 15/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

14:40A 1pt ew An Saighduir @ 14/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

Plus 0.5pts ew double at the above prices.

Seven points staked.

Final post for Friday

At Wolverhampton:

19:40W 1.5pts win Mr Red Clubs @ 3/1 Coral BOG
19:40W 0.75pts ew King Hei Fat Choi @ 8/1 Coral BOG

20:10W 1pt ew Hoppy's Flyer @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Five points staked.

Good night!

Wine

Despite the last two unsatisfactory results at Newcastle, you will not be surprised to learn I have just opened a bottle of wine to celebrate the massive Ayr winners earlier. Always one for value, it's a little number from that esteemed wine merchant Aldi. As you know most things at Aldi cost around  £1. So this is one of their more expensive lines @ £5.69. If you like Sauvignon Blanc, this is a banker:

https://www.aldi.co.uk/en/product-range/drinks/wine-cellar/white-wine/white-wine-product-detail-page/ps/p/freemans-bay-new-zealand-sauvignon-blanc/

Good health!

Newcastle further bets

Rather shell shocked at the moment having backed and recommended 25/1 and 33/1 winners at Ayr. Couple more plays at Newcastle:

17:30N 1pt ew Pivotal Prospect @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG

18:00N 1pt win Edith Anne @ 7/1 Spreadex fixed odds 

Three points staked. 

If I have any additional bets at Wolverhampton I will publish after I have watched the 19:10W race

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Hazelrigg obliges at 25/1

There is an old saying - you never have enough on a winner! Still a 25/1 poke is handy. Couple more at Ayr, in the 16:00:

16:00A 0.75pts win Circuitous @ 33/1 William Hill BOG
16:00A 0.75 pts win Hadaj @ 28/1 Bet365 BOG (might get better on betfair)

1.5pts staked.

Further bets from Newc and Wolv possible later.

Friday horses

Only one winner blogged yesterday. Backed heavily from 5/1 to 2/1 and made most of running. Unfortunately an 11/2 chance would not go into the stalls which means we were hit with a 15p rule 4. Therefore 5/1 becomes 4.25/1. Loss on day (4.13) points. 

Meetings at Ayr, Newcastle and Wolverhampton are of interest however it is a tricky day and small stakes are the call:

14:20A 0.75pts win Hazelrigg @ 25/1 Coral BOG

14:20A 0.75pts win Even Stevens @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

15:50N 0.5pts win Thackeray @ 25/1 Betfred BOG

15:50N 0.75pts win Hayek @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

19:10W 0.75pts ew Lutine Bell @ 10/1 Coral BOG

Total 4.25 points.

Other races of interest are 16:00A, 17:30N/18:00N and 19:40W/20:10W. However if I play in these races, because of going/NR concerns, it will be after the relevant race above has been run. So further posts likely this afternoon /evening. 

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Thursday horses 2

Very speculative bets from Ayr:

14:40A 0.75pts ew Captain Royale @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

14:40A 1pt win Captain Scooby @ 13/2 Bet365 BOG

15:10A 0.75pts ew Joshua The First @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

15:40A 1pt win Old Man Clegg @ 10/1 Betfred BOG

And at Ponte:

15:00P 1pt ew Cono Zur @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

17:30P 0.5pts ew West End Lad @ 14/1 Coral BOG

That's it unless non-runner(s) selected.

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Thursday horses

Kempton went better than expected last night with two winners raising the day's profit to 30.6 points and 34.1 points on the week. Selections from Ayr, Kempton and Ponte today starting with:

17:30P 1.5pts win Satanic Beat @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

21:10K 1.5pts win 1pt place Koharu @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

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Wednesday afternoon summary

A good start with two winners followed by a second and third at Beverley. Winning bets:

14:00B Tinsill w 13/2 (BOG)  Return 11.25 points

14:20S The Strig w 8/1 (but three NRs = 35p r4) so w 5.2/1 Return 18.6 points

16:10B and !6:45B ew double 7/1 (1/4 BOG 2nd) and 5/1 (1/5 3rd) Return 2.75 points

Total afternoon stakes: 11 points Returns: 32.6 points Profit: 21.6 points

Not particularly confident about Kempton tonight hence only 5.5 points across three races. Minimum 16 points profit on the day therefore.

Wenesday horses 4

Great start to the day with The Strig and Tinsell both winning comfortably. Two more at Beverley:

16:10B 1.5pts win Modern Lady @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

16:45B 1.5pts win Ingenti @ 5/1 William Hill BOG 

0.5pts ew double above two at prices.

Further four points.

Wednesday horses 3

14:00B 1.5pts win Tinsill @ 5/1 Betfred BOG

16:45B 0.75pts ew Lucky Dan @ 18/1 Coral BOG

Any further bets at Beverley will be published after the first race.

Three points staked.

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Wednesday horses 2

At Kempton:

20:15K 2pts win Trucanini @ 5/2 Coral BOG

20:15K 0.5pts ew Supernova Heights @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

20:45K 1pt win Aye Aye Digby @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

21:15K 1.5pts win Zhiggy's Stardust @ 4/1 Coral BOG

Total 5.5 points. 

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Wednesday horses

Overnight rain at Sandown means ground is soft which should suit the The Strig who won on similar ground at Brighton on Monday. In fact watched the race in William Hill, Shrewsbury whilst waiting to see the Father Fred race ten minutes later. The Strig won well enough and though he carries a penalty here will be assisted from the saddle by the excellent James Doyle for the first time:

14:20S 3pts win The Strig @ 8/1 Coral BOG

14:20S 0.5pts ew Royal Award @ 22/1 Bet365 BOG

Bets to follow at Beverley and Kempton.

Four points staked.

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Tuesday horses

Just one race as not keen on Chepstow today. At Thirsk:

14:10T 2pts win Chord Chart @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

14:10T 0.5pt reverse forecast above with Broadcaster (WH)

Three points staked.

Bookmakers could not give away yesterday's winner Father Fred during the day. In fact it opened on track at 10/1 before attracting support into 7/1. Monday profit is 6.5 points.

Went to see Stewart Lee last night. I can't think of too many comedians that make me laugh. He is an exception. Catch his live show if you can. Or his next TV series in Spring 2014! My first visit to Theatre Severn, Shrewsbury. Impressive venue. Critics might consider it a monument to civic extravagance as it was approved/constructed just before the latest financial crisis kicked in. I doubt very much that it pays its way or indeed that it would have been built in the austere times in which we live. A splendid asset for the town nonetheless. 

"I wish I had more sense of humor
Keeping the sadness at bay
Throwing the lightness on these things
Laughing it all away
Laughing it alI away
Laughing it all away"

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Monday horses

Don't fancy much today. Small interest Wolverhampton:

17:30W 1pt win Father Fred @ 15/2 Bet365 BOG

17:30W 0.5pts ew Very First Blade @ 25/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked.

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Secret Missile strikes

Well yes it does, but not at 10/1.

Half the field didn't run so it meant only five went to post and thus hefty rule 4s. For 10/1 read 9/2. You could have taken the latter price as it was the opening show on course before being heavily punted into 11/4. Pleased to end the week with a winner though - even if it was only by a nose!

Figures for the week: Stakes 77.5 Returns 108.1 Profit 30.6 points 

Website updated with accumulative positions. Might play at Wolverhampton tomorrow depending how the fields shape up.

Sunday horses 2

Second choice at Curragh is a non-runner. Suspect forecast rain is not going to arrive, at least not in time for the going to change. Switched stake to:

14:45C 1pt win Rummaging @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Other selection still 12/1 in two places. Can't see that lasting.

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Sunday horses

Carnage yesterday, thankful for the winners earlier in the week. Nevertheless going to tackle the hardest race of the day at The Curragh:

14:45C 2pts win Bird's Eye View @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

14:45C 1pt win Caesaria @ 14/1 Coral BOG

Had no luck at Bath this season, the jockey even managed to drop his whip on yesterday's selection not that he would have won with it. Hoping that this C&D winner can at least reach the frame:

17:20B 1pt ew Secret Missile @ 10/1 Coral BOG

Total five points.

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The Swell Season - "Gold" e "What happens when the heart just stops" (Li...

A couple of tracks from The Swell Season (Glen Hansard).

Worth checking out his new album, Rhythm And Repose, which I thoroughly recommend. About eight quid on Amazon.

Saturday selections

These are the bet I have had today:

15:30C 2pts win 1pt place Mick's Yer Man @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

15:30C 1pt ew Song Of Rowland 11/1 Bet365 BOG

16:45C 2pts win 1pt place Jack My Boy @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:45C 1pt ew Electric Qatar @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

17:50L 3pts win Ladweb @ 11/2 Coral BOG

14:40D 1.5pts ew Barnet Fair @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

14:40D 1pt ew Elusivity @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

17:05B 1.5pts win Ginzan @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

20:30K 1pt ew Elusive Hawk @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

Including last night's thee point bet, total is 24.5 points on today's racing. No further bets unless any non-runners have been selected.

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Friday review/Saturday selections

No joy today, thought we had a bit of a chance with Yeeoow in the Donny race when he burst through, however he could eventually only finish third for a 3.75 point return and hence a (3.75) point loss on the day.  

The Wolverhampton selection turned out to be a good value loser in the end, finishing fourth at 10/1 whereas I took 14/1. But that masks the story of a monumental drift during the day with the selection reaching 30.0 on betfair and more than 20/1 with some bookmakers. It really is quite amazing how these markets can move during the day. In the end it didn't matter as it turned out to be a nil return on the race with the fourth place. 

It's going to be a winning week however. Despite the small losses of the last two days we come into Saturday 52.48 points in front on the week. There are up to six races I am interested in today (about half as many as last Saturday thank god). And maybe one race on Sunday. 

The first bet is at Kempton's evening meeting:

20:30K 3pts win Levi Draper @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

More action later.

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Friday horses

As follows:

16:25D 2pts win 1pt place Yeeoow @ 11/1 William Hill BOG

16:25D 1.5pts win Elusive Flame @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

18:00W 1.5pts ew Indian Affair @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

No further selections unless a non-runner selected. Total 7.5 points staked.

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Thursday review

Just about got away with it yesterday. Poor selections from Doncaster and Wolverhampton. I was going to swerve Chepstow but thank goodness I didn't because the Welsh venue saved the day. One selection there - Rising Dawn - won at the absurdly short-price of 7/2F. I took 9/1 which was available for a long time, the gamble only developing late on. So we have 13.25 points back for the total outlay of 16 points (2.75).

Only two races appeal today, which is just as well as the Ludlow Food Festival starts and there could be up to three gigs to attend later including at the brewery and culminating in Grey Wolf at the Queens. Selections available shortly.

Grey Wolf at The Wine Bar

Wolverhampton 20:30

Last bet for today:

20:30W 2pts win Sarah Berry @ 13/2 William Hill BOG

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Thursday horses 2

From the other cards:

16:10C 1pt ew Rising Dawn @ 9/1 William Hill BOG

19:30W 1.5pts ew Lady Kildare @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

20:00W 2pts win Methaaly @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

I may have a bet in the 20:30W and if I do will post it after the 20:00 race. Total above seven points.

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Thursday horses

From Doncaster:

13:40D 1pt win Cornish Path @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

13:40D 1pt win Chutney @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

16:25D 2pts win 1pt place Mayaasem @ 14/1 Skybet*

16:25D 1pt ew If So @ 10/1 Coral BOG

*I have taken 14/1 with Skybet but 14/1 BOG is available with three firms who do not take my bets and may well of course take yours.

Will tackle other meetings later on today. Seven points staked.

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Wednesday review

No good at Kempton tonight despite Sheikh The Reins going close in the last. However a splendid afternoon at Doncaster started with Braidley winning the first (w 9/1 BOG, 10 point return) and then later Sir Pedro - my biggest bet of the day - landing a gamble in the lucky last. I advised 14/1 and although there were eventually six non-runners in the race only one withdrawal affected the market, to the tune of just a 5p rule four deduction. So 14/1 becomes 13.3/1 which is somewhat better than the 7/1 SP!

Returns on Sir Pedro are 42.23 points. Total returns on the day: 52.23 plus a couple of points returned on Purcell (NR).

Net profit on the day 35.23 points to add to yesterday's haul of 23.75 points. Just shy of 59 points ahead on the week. 

Donny again tomorrow, where the ground could be very soft. Some interesting sport at Wolverhampton too. And maybe one race at Chepstow.

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Wednesday horses 2

Further bets today:

Doncaster:

14:00D 1.5pts win Supersta @ 15/2 Betfred BOG

14:00D 1 pt win Braidley @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

16:45D 1pt ew Purcell @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

15:45D 0.75pts ew Homage @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

 17:15D 1pt win Bronze Beau @ 14/1 Coral BOG

Kempton:

18:15K 1pt ew Speed Society @ 11/1 Betfred BOG

20:45K 1.5pts win Black Truffle @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

20:45K 1.5pts win Emiratesdotcom @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

21:15K 1pt ew Zaheeb @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

21:15K 1pt win Sheikh The Reins @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG 

Total 15 points above. Some of the selections are bigger with bookmakers who do not accept my bets. Also some bigger prices available on betfair for small money. That will do for today unless any selections are non-runners in which case I may nominate alternative(s).

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Wednesday horses

Looks like a busy day today. Three difficult races at Donny plus Kempton. Starting with the last at Doncaster:

17:15D 2.5pts win 1.5pts place Sir Pedro @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

Another selection in this race will follow.

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Tuesday review

A good day with two winners from three selections. Khohlaan has just made virtually all to score @ 7/4 (recommended at 11/4). Earlier Mezzotint won comfortably at 10/1.

Fine start to the week with 23.75 points profit. Doncaster and Kempton tomorrow.

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Tuesday horses

17:40B 3pts win Avon Breeze @ 7/2 Bet365 BOG

18:10B 3pts win Khohlaan @ 11/4 Bet365 BOG

0.75pt ew double above two Bet365

14:50L 2pts win Mezzotint @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total stake 9.5 points

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The week's horses / US Open

Rather an anticlimax at Wolverhampton last night with Lord Buffhead a fast finishing second and the ew selection Rutterkin finishing fourth at 18/1. This knocked five points from the Saturday profits which are reduced to 26.23 points. The best racing results of the week nonetheless on what proved to be a difficult day's punting for many. The changes in ground conditions made winner finding hazardous. For example, "the world's greatest tipster" Pricewise provided followers with a blank day tipping seven losers - not even one selection making the frame. Raceclear the popular Internet tipster, who gave turf racing a swerve yesterday, could only put up three losers at the AW gaff, Kempton. The latter venue provided the best winner for the blog and showed once again the value of BOG. Happy to take 11/2 Footstepsintherain I was delighted but somewhat surprised by the SP of 10/1 for this comfortable winner!

So therefore pleased to come out of the week at the tracks with a marginal loss of - 2.43 points (having checked the figures we were 28.66 down coming into Saturday and not 23.66 as previously indicated).

In the US Open we have also finished in front. The grand total invested on the event was 43.5 points. The winning bets were 6pts ew Vika @ 11/2 (1/2 1,2) which returned 22.5 points for her place in the final and 34 points returned for the two bets on (not-so-fat) Stan beating Mugray. A total profit of +13 points.

You will notice the above US Open returns ignore the possibility of Vika beating Serena tonight. Unless Vika has learnt how to serve in the last 48 hours I can't see this happening. However I'll be happy to revisit the profit figures and add 39 points if a miracle should occur!

No bets today and no horse racing bets on Monday's cards. Beverley and Leicester will be the focus on Tuesday. Accumulative positions now online on the website.

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Saturday review / Wolverhampton

It's been a good day. Three winners: 10/1 (BOG), 9/1 (rule 4), 4/1. Places: 20/1 (BOG), 14/1 (BOG), 12/1 (rule 4) + one NR.

I make the total return 63.73 (which I will double check tomorrow). Stakes were 32.5 so we are back in front on the horses this week.

One more race tonight:

21:05W 3pts win Lord Buffhead @ 10/3 William Hill BOG

21:05W 1pt ew Rutterkin @ 18/1 Bet365 BOG

Five points staked, no horse bets tomorrow.

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Saturday horses 4

One race overlooked this morning:

16:25H 1pt ew Kickboxer @ 9/1 William Hill BOG

16:25H 1pt straight forecast Musical Comedy to beat Kickboxer (WH)

An additional three points.

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Saturday horses 3

Managed to pick two non-runners so stakes have been re-invested as follows:

14:00T 2pts win Solar Spirit @ 8/1 Coral BOG

14:05H 2pts win Above Standard @ 8/1 Betfred BOG

Total stakes for the day remain the same.

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Saturday horses 2

Not a good week so far. Small ew double and 25/1 place yesterday leaving me (23.66) points down on the horses for the week. Thankfully the bets on Stan to beat Murray covered this pulling in 25 points profit on the match. These are the other bets I have had today:

13:55A 1.5pts ew Hasopop @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

16:05A 3pts win Ifwecan @ 7/2 Coral BOG

17:10A 2pts win Dungannon @ 4/1 Coral BOG

17:10A 1.5pts ew Diamond Charlie @ 12/1 Boyles BOG

14:00T 2pts win Ypres @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

16:20T 2pts win Meandmyshadow @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

17:55T 2pts ew Tumblewind @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

14:05H 2pts win Smart Daisy K @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

15:50H 1.5pts win Soul @ 14/1 William Hill BOG

15:50H 0.5pts ew Hawkeyethenoo @ 25/1 Betfred BOG

17:20K 0.75pts ew Cadercruix @ 20/1 William Hill BOG

17:20K 2pts win Footstepsintherain @ 11/2 William Hill BOG

17:50K 1pt win Messila Star @ 9/1 Coral BOG

17:50K 0.75pts ew Extrasolar @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

Total 29.5 points plus three staked earlier. May have a bet at Wolverhampton tonight at 18:00 or later.

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Saturday horses

First bet of the day is one that unfortunately has been chosen by Pricewise and is therefore likely to shorten:

13:55A 2pts win 1pt place Pythagorean @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

Another bet to follow in this race.

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Further Friday bets

Just a couple of small bets at Newcastle to finish:

17:10N 0.5pts ew Lees Anthem @ 25/1 Betfred BOG
17:10N 0.5pts ew Bayshambles @ 33/1 William Hill BOG

17:45N 1pt ew Live Dangerously @ 14/1 Betfred BOG

Four points staked

Friday horses 2

Small interest at Haydock:

14:00H 1.5pts win Rusty Rocket @ 9/1 William Hill BOG

15:00H 1.5pts win Beau Mistral @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG

0.5pt ew double above two with WH (9/1 Beau Mistral) 

15:30H 1.5pts win Showboating @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

Total 5.5 points staked.

If I have any bets at Chepstow and/or Newcastle they will be posted no earlier than 15:00. 

Good luck today.

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Friday horses

First up it's Kempton tonight:

19:50K 2.5pts win Skinny Love @ 7/1 Boylesports BOG

Other meetings to follow.

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Thursday review

A bad day with the horse pics - a 13 point loss on the day. Messy day tomorrow with potential bets at Haydock, Chepstow, Newcastle and Kempton. Selective has to be the word. Rain is forecast in several areas overnight/morning so going changes probable.

A nice change of fortune in the US Open with the Mugray match and first set bets providing a 25 point profit - the first bets blogged in the men's competition. Utterly convincing performance by Stan. Here is a stat that tells you how good he was: only the second time in 146 Slam matches that Mugray has not had a break point. Could cause Djoko some problems in the semi assuming the Serb comes through tonight. Saw the Djoko v Stan encounter at Aussie open which Stan should have won (he lost 12-10 in the fifth).

Pennetta has been quite well supported to beat Vika tomorrow night. I thought 11/2 was big. However it was available for several hours after I blogged the price and then suddenly PP went 4/1. Some firms now only 7/2. Problems in the Vika camp I wonder?

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Kempton

My selection in the last at Kempton is a non-runner. This is a shame as it had been backed from16/1 to as low as 9/1 (with WH). The field is now of course currently just seven runners which considerably reduces the appeal of ew betting. The favourite is 2/5 however so I have still played ew in the race as follows hoping to be in the first two:

20:40K 1pt ew Harrogate Fair @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

Plus:

20:40K 1pt straight forecast Marmalady to beat Harrogate Fair (WH)

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Murray

I think the US Open champion could be up against it today so I am going to oppose him in his match with Wawrinka. Although Murray leads the H2H 8-5 their one meeting in 2013 saw the Swiss win comfortably in straight sets. (Monte Carlo, on clay though, 6-1 6-2). In addition when they last met at the US Open (in 2010) Stan won in four sets. Stan played exceptionally well in defeating the higher-ranked Berdych in the last round. 

I note that Murray has drifted considerably in the outright betting to 11/2 even though there are just six players remaining now. Of course it is the quality of the players remaining that is the problem for the Scot. Should he get past Stan he would then (in all probability) play Djoko in the semi who won his previous round 6-3 6-0 6-0 and has not really been tested yet. Nadal, who has not dropped his serve let alone a set, would probably await in the final. A tough draw indeed, hence the price drift.

Getting back to today, Mugray is often slowly away (as he was in the last round against Istomin when he lost the first set on a tie-break). Stan tends to be pretty smartly out of the traps so my two bets on the match are:

4pts Stan to win the first set against Mugray @ 9/4 Bet365

5pts Stan to beat Mugray (match betting) @ 16/5 William Hill

Nine points invested.

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Thursday horses 2

From Kempton this evening:

19:10K 1.5pts ew Nasri @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

20:40K 1.5pts ew Puteri Nur Laila @ 16/1 Skybet BOG

Six points staked.

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US Open tennis

It has been a very poor tournament for me so far. The last bet standing is the 6pt ew bet on Vika @ 11/2. So we will collect some returns (22.5 points) if she beats Pennetta tomorrow. However I thought she was very moderate in getting past the useless Hantuchova last night. Vika's serve in particular was woeful. Pennetta, on the other hand, is yet to drop a set. The unseeded Italian must have a chance of beating Vika if she can hold her nerve. She is overpriced with Paddy Power in my opinion.

4pts win Pennetta to beat Vika @ 11/2 Paddy Power 

If you are thinking of having this bet too, bear in mind that if Vika retires during the match the bet will be void and the ante-post bet on Vika will of course be a loser. Also I would not be having a bet on Pennetta if I didn't have the aforementioned ante-post position on the second seed.

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Thursday horses

No good today even though both selections were well supported (10/1>5/1 and 12/1>8/1) they could only finish 7th and 9th.

Moving on to Haydock, Salisbury and Kempton on Thursday. Early pokes are from the first two meetings, with Kempton to follow tomorrow:-

14:30H 1.5pts ew Snooky @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

17:50S 4pts win Catchanova @ 4/1 William Hill BOG

Seven points staked.

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Wednesday horses

Just betting in one race today:

14:50L 2pts win 1pt place Connaught Waters @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

14:50L 1pt ew Desert Colours @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

No further bets unless a non-runner selected. Five points staked.

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Tuesday review

Too much going on today, tried to tackle ten races. Message to self: be more selective. Total staked 30.5 points. Two winners: Royal Bajan who got up on the line to save it from being a really bad day. (Won 9/4 5p rule 4, return 12.55 points.) And Breccbennach w 7/1 (8 points) plus Tidentime p 8/1 (2.6 points). Total return 23.15 points, loss on the day 7.35 points.

Bath, Lingfield and Kempton tomorrow are of interest. However having had a quick look at the cards I may just play one race.

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Leicester continued

14:50L 1pt ew Ceelo @ 12/1 Coral BOG
14:50L 1pt win Breccbennach @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG

16:15L 2pts win Romantic Bliss @ 5/1 William Hill BOG

16:50L 1.5pts ew Fantasy Invader @ 12/1 William Hill BOG

17:20L 1.5 pts win Artful Lady @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

Monday review/tennis

Hard luck stories yesterday I'm afraid.

Supa U going down by a nose in the first @ 11.4/1 was a nightmare start to the day. The 'experts' on Racing UK - James W etc - thought it was a dead-heat (examining the video still) but it was not to be. In the last race blogged, our 9/1 poke was left 4-5 lengths at the start only to rally and go down by a couple of lengths at the line. No winners but in the end just 0.52pts profit thanks to the two places.

The tennis was a nightmare too. Halep, a set and 4-2 down to Pennetta fought back, regaining the momentum, to serve for the second set at 5-4. Then, on set point to Halep, they came off as it started raining. Hours later, she was unable to convert, losing in straight sets. What's more I thought Vinci would be a warm favourite to beat her compatriot Pennetta. However that is not the case as the books are making the unseeded player favourite. I need to stick to the horses!

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Tuesday horses 2

14:30L 2.5pts ew Lady Tiana @ 7/1 Betfred BOG

17:10G 1pt win Commanche @ 12/1 Coral BOG

Further bets will be posted after 14:30.

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Tuesday horses

Quite a lot of activity today starting with:

17:10G 3pts win 1pt place Tidentime @ 8/1 William Hill BOG

16:05G 4pts win Expert @ 9/4 William Hill BOG

16:45L 2pts win Pyjama Day @ 9/2 Paddy Power BOG

17:15L 4pts win Royal Bajan @ 9/4 Paddy Power BOG

17:50L 1pt win Tiaoman Legend @ 14/1 Paddy Power BOG

More to follow.

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US Open - play suspended

At the time of writing play is suspended. In the bottom half of the draw Roberta Vinci is the only player through to the quarter final. Halep v Pennetta is finely balanced and the winner will be Vinci's next opponent. Vinci is the highest seeded player (10) left in the bottom half of the draw with the exception of Vika (2). Obviously I am still hopeful of a Halep - Vika semi which would guarantee a reasonable return.

If you have had the Vika and Halep ew bets I think it is also worth having the following bet that I have just placed:

0.75pts ew Roberta Vinci to win US Open @ 100/1 Bet365 1/3 odds 1,2

Basically the place odds of 33/1 represent a double of potential victories over Halep/Pennetta  and then (more than likely) Vika. Reasonable value as a round-about hedge I feel....

Let's hope we get some more play soon.

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Monday horses 2

Very disappointed with the 14:10H result. We were beaten the minimum distance with Supa U at a very decent price. 

Just having one more bet today on the horses as follows:

14:40H 1pt ew Alexandrakollontai @ 9/1 William Hill BOG

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Monday horses

From Hamilton:

14:10H 1.5pts ew Supa U @ 12/1 Betfred BOG

14:40H 1.5pts win Push Me @ 7/1 Coral BOG

14:40H 1pt ew High Resolution @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Total 6.5pts. That's it for now. May bet in the last two races but will not be posting until after 16:00 if that is the case.

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End of month review

One of the best week's punting for me with 76.57 points' profit. At least one of the blog readers has done well I am pleased to report. He had a near £3k return for a £2 Lucky 15 which included all of yesterday's three big priced winners!

I can't believe things can continue to go this well. We have around ten weeks left of the turf season so I must stick to my betting principles and keep stakes at the current levels. Here is a summary of where we are at 31 August 2013:

2013 YTD (settled bets) Profit 633 points  = 32.9 %  http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2013.php

Flat season 2013 Profit 466 points = 32.8 % http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Flat-Season-2013.php

The sun is shining here so it's off to the tennis court for a bet free afternoon!