FA Cup

I have (probably but not certainly) posted my last blog bet for this year that will be settled on or before 31 December. It's been a very profitable year with 124 points profit (25%+) but a much lower turnover than in the two previous years.

I like to put together a small portfolio for the FA Cup at this time of year - before the third round gets underway early in January. My three against the field are as follows, with Small Sam's West Ham heading the trio:

2pts EW West Ham @ 40/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)
1.5pts EW Southampton @ 22/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)
1pt EW Swansea @ 40/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2) 

West Ham face a tricky fixture away to Everton on Tuesday 6 January. Before that Swansea travel to Tranmere on Saturday 3rd and Soton entertain Ipswich on the Sunday.

Total nine points staked.

X-factor portfolio

Extraordinary developments in the outright market. Blogged a bet on Ben yesterday afternoon @ 11/4 (as I started to see weakness in the Fleur price) and as I write now he is no bigger than 8/11 with the bookmakers. At least the plunge was not immediate and the advised price was available for significantly more than 12 hours after posting. 

Yesterday's stake means that the total invested on this event is 11 points (including five points on two acts who are now sitting at home). The other six points staked and the potential outcomes are as follows:

Fleur: 1pt win 14/1

          1pt top over 5/2

          Potential return = 18.5, potential event win: 7.5pts

Ben: 1.5pts win 9/2 

         2pts win 11/4 

         Potential return = 15.75, potential event win: 4.75pts

Andrea: 0.5pts win 25.0 (23.8 after commission)

             Potential return = 11.9, potential event win: 0.9pts 

So that's all eventualities covered. Obviously I'm still hoping for a Fleur win. Hope you managed to 'green-up' your x-factor book. 

          

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X-factor news

The market has moved quite strongly against Fleur today. I have taken evasive action by backing Ben @ 11/4. I think this is going to be a lot closer than I anticipated yesterday. I can only think that song choices and/or rehearsals have not gone brilliantly for her. I have had:

2pts Ben Haenow to win x-factor @ 11/4 Betfred

I took the above price with WH which seemed to initiate a change to 5/2 moments later. The 11/4 is also available with PP and Ladbrokes as I write. At least the above bet now guarantees a small profit whatever the outcome and I'm happy with that...

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Miss World

Continuing the 'specials' theme, I've had a small bet on what is now a very minor event:

1.5pts Miss India (Koyal Rana) to win Miss World @ 8/1 Betfred

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Good value losers?

The two selections in the 19:40 Dundalk yesterday were heavily backed. Cottrell was punted from 5/1 to 5/2f and finished a disappointing fourth. The other choice, Iontas, was 9/2 at the off from 16/1 taken! It finished last. 

The problem with beating the market by such huge margins - and not collecting - is that bookmakers hate you beating SP. They think you know more than they do and will heavily restrict your accounts, or worse still close them even if you are a loser on balance. 

Long-term readers of my blog/website will be aware that I "know" nothing! I never take any notice of owner/trainer/jockey comments or "information" of any kind and my selections are made solely on my analysis of the race in question. 

Turning to this weekend's x-factor final, we are in a strong position with 14/1 poke Fleur now the 4/11 favourite to win. The second favourite, Ben, we have @ 9/2 for a zero loss position. The other runner, Andrea, was the reason I got involved in the first place. He was 6/4 favourite when there were 14 runners and I suggested the first wagers. Now he's showing at 27 on betfair. I told a blog reader a couple of days ago (when the Italian was 18) I wasn't going to cover my bets as I'd always been of the firm opinion that he can't win. However, for the sake of a half-point I have had the following:

0.5pt Andrea to win x-factor @ 25.0 Betfair 

(Although 27 is showing as I write there is very little liquidity so I have booked the bet @ 25.0)

Hopefully the favourite will oblige for around nine points profit on the event. 

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Dundalk

A rare horse racing bet today. I thought Cottrell ran a great race last time out from a poor draw just getting caught (beaten a short-head) on the line. Deserves another chance tonight:

19:40D 2pts win Cottrell @ 5/1 Coral BOG
19:40D 0.5 pts ew Iontas @ 16/1 Paddy Power BOG

Total three points invested.

Forgot to say yesterday that Boylesports were "offering" 33/1 A-Rad for the Australian Open. After they laid me a maximum bet of 39p ew I didn't think it was worth mentioning although the price is still there this morning - presumably to micro stakes.

A-Rad

Significant news that Navratilova is going to join Agneiszka Radwanska's coaching team. We have seen improvement in the men's game when high-profile ex-champions have linked up with top twenty players. I am thinking more Goran/Cilic and Chang/Nishikori than Mauresmo/Murray.

I've been very impressed listening to Navratilova's analysis of the game when she has appeared on BT Sport. Hence I have played a couple of speculative bets on the Pole this morning. Of course A-Rad's best Grand Slam result to date was reaching the 2012 Wimbledon final (for which incidentally we backed her ew @ 100/1). However I am hoping for an upturn in form before Wimbledon either in the Australian Open or the French Open. She is scheduled to play two full tournaments Down Under before the first Grand Slam of 2015.

I have had:

1.5pts ew A Radwanska to win Australian Open @ 28/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts ew A Radwanska to win French Open @ 33/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total six points.

Soup kitchen

Limited betting activity at present so here is a bit of value for a cheap lunch for two! 

How about a 700 gram carton of soup for 17p? Here's how:

First go to Covent Garden Soup website and print a £1 off voucher: 

http://www.newcoventgardensoup.com/

Then go to Tesco where you will find several CG soups on sale at half-price. That is £1.17 rather than £2.34. Make your choice and present your coupon at the checkout. These three varieties were half-price in my Tesco:

Incidentally Morrison are selling some of these CG soups for £1 which in theory means the soup is free with a voucher. However I do not have a Morrison near me so cannot confirm this. I do however have a Tesco and we had trap one, Tomato and Basil (17p), for lunch today!

This offer will not last forever. I would expect the vouchers to disappear in a day or two...

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X-factor shite update

Mixed results last evening. My little 40/1 EW poke - OTY - were sent home. My main selection, Lauren, is now double-figures following a good performance (IMO) but a stitch-up in the running order. She was scheduled first, thus singing during the overlap with SCD. Clearly the producers don't want her to progress much further.. 

However Fleur, who I have backed at 14/1 to win the event and at 5/2 to be "Top Over", is now 6/4 jolly to win the competition. This is the first change in market leader since the live stages began with 16 runners. There are now six acts remaining. I've just played again with a bet on Ben Haenow:

1.5pts Ben Haenow to win x-factor @ 9/2 Betfred

Ben is also in the "Overs" category with Fleur so has a chance of derailing both my Fleur bets mentioned above. This extends the x-factor portfolio to 8.5 points. A Fleur win would return 18.5 points for a nice ten point profit. If the Italian boy Andrea wins I've done it in. I said at the start I wanted to oppose him so there is no way I am covering on him now. Que sera, sera.

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Murray 2014

Fair play to Murray for turning out at short notice yesterday to entertain the crowd at the O2.

My Murray 2014 portfolio (assembled on Christmas Day 2013), finally came to a conclusion when he was dismissed from ATP London by Federer 6-0 6-1 in the group stages. Thus limiting his winning tournaments to three in 2014. I won't labour the point but how much better the portfolio result would have been had he won one tournament fewer! In the three finals he reached, Ferrer served for the championship in one and in the other two Robredo had five match points in each of them!  Anyway I hope you managed to profit from the bets which provided plenty of interest throughout the year and finished with 22 points profit. Details here.

I wish AM all the best in 2015. His world ranking has improved from a low of 12 in September to number six today. With injuries starting perhaps to be a problem for Nadal and Federer he has the potential to reach the latter stages of major tournaments next year.

Davis Cup final

One of the reasons for taking on short-priced favourite Switzerland way back in January was the fact that they are basically a two-man team and should either Roger or Stan be injured - and thus unable to play - Switzerland's chance of winning (any) tie would reduce significantly.

Following an epic semi-final between the Swiss pair on Saturday at the O2, Roger was of course forced to withdraw from Sunday's ATP London final and concede the tournament to Djoko. Add to this the alleged animosity between the Davis Cup team mates - following court side comments allegedly made by Mrs Federer during play - and we can deduce that all is not well in the Swiss camp.

At the time of writing it seems that both Swiss players will travel to Lille as planned for the Davis Cup final. However my remaining ante-post selection France (9/2) - best priced 13/8 on Saturday - has narrowed in the betting to 11/10. Encouraging signs at least....

                                                                                                 Still good mates?

Dessie Hughes

It was exactly four years ago - during this Punchestown weekend -  that I had the great privilege of meeting Dessie Hughes. This was a group visit to his stables organised by Frances Crowley. With great pride and enthusiasm he showed us around his yard and introduced us to the likes of Black Apalachi and Brave Inca (retired).

Someone was kind enough to take this picture of Dessie and me during the visit:

Flat season wrap 2014

Disappointing to draw a blank on the last day of the flat season. A much reduced service this year of course with a fraction of the bets blogged during each of the last two seasons. Pleased to say though that profits for the season were in excess of 38% thanks to winners @ 28/1, 14/1, 12/1 and 11/1. Full details here:

2014 flat season

Unlikely to be any further horse racing bets this year. In fact there may not be much activity at all. I have the ATP London bets running from this Sunday and then this will be followed by (underdogs) France in the Davis Cup final (EW 9/2). Even if everything goes pear-shaped until the end of the year I think we should finish close to 20% profit overall.

Hopefully readers have shown a profit again this year by following some (or all) of my selections.

Final day of the 2014 turf season

Very sad that another season is nearly over as (at least) the last three seasons have proved very profitable. One race is of particular interest to me tomorrow is the 16-runner 7f sprint. Being totally paranoid I am always concerned that my selections will be picked by Pricewise, thus reducing in price making it more difficult for me to secure any value. An added problem is that the few bookmakers that do lay me some bets will only lay me very small bets the night before racing. Therefore I've had what I can on the following:

13:50D 2pts win Modern Tutor @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

13:50D 1pt win Doc Hay @ 20/1 Coral BOG

Looks like there will be at least one non-runner hence the win only approach. We will know shortly after 20:00 tonight whether my paranoia is justified as this is when the Pricewise selections are made public. 

Three points staked.

If I have any further bets I will publish by 10:30 tomorrow.

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ATP London

Have had a bit of a break from betting since the Breeders' Mile. Disappointed with the way Obviously went out like a light, particularly as the race was panning out exactly as I thought it might as they came into the straight.

Sunday sees the start of the final ATP tournament of the year and Djoko is an odds-on chance to win it, being in terrific form. I'm taking a chance against him with the surprise US Open finalists at decent prices. Cilic's form took a big drop immediately after his first GS win. Something that is not uncommon (see for example Wawrinka's form during 2014 following his first GS win). The Croat did bounce back by winning Moscow but without the need to beat a top ten player. If his serve is working well he has a chance of beating anyone, particularly in the three-set format. He faces Berdych and Wawrinka as well as the favourite in Group A.

Nishikori is in Group B and faces Murray, Federer and Raonic. He has a 4-1 H2H against the latter, only going down to the Canadian on the fast courts of Wimbledon. His record against Federer is respectable: 2-2. Murray could give him most trouble as the Scot leads 3:0. But how much will Andy have left having played six tournaments in as many weeks to get here?

I have had the following bets:

1pt EW Marin Cilic to win ATP London @ 20/1 Coral (1/3 odds 1,2) 
1pt Marin Cilic to win Group A @ 8/1 Coral 

1.5pts EW Kei Nishikori to win ATP London @ 18/1 Spreadex fixed odds (1/3 odds 1,2)
2pts Kei Nishikori to win Group B @ 11/2 Spreadex fixed odds

Total eight points staked.

I may have a bet at Doncaster tomorrow. If I do it will be blogged before 10:30am.

Obviously a price cut by Sky'bet'

At 0:33 this morning Skybet cut Obviously from the 16/1 advised to 12/1.  Ironically I didn't have my bet with them because I'd already backed the horse @ 16/1 with Coral but with inferior place terms (1/5th). So either they were reading my blog around midnight (unlikely) or a follower of the blog had a bet @ 16/1 around that time. This is not a high profile selection so I doubt whether the price change emanated from another source. 16/1 is still available elsewhere.

Anyway when my selection leads into the straight, this is the powerhouse that will probably be stalking him with two furlongs to run:

Such a magnificent looking animal and that is the only reason for publishing this picture of the favourite!

Breeders' Cup Mile (Turf)

Have had a bet in the penultimate BC race - it's not run until 23:40 our time Saturday night. Two against the field for me. One American-trained selection which should be quick out the box and has run creditably in this race before. The other a filly trained by Alain de Royer Dupre and (apparently) Soumillon's only ride at the BC:

01:11:2014 23:40 SA 1pt EW Obviously @ 16/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1,2,3) BOG NRNB

01:11:2014 23:40 SA 1pt win Veda @ 12/1 Paddy Power BOG

Three points staked.

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Southampton update

You may be surprised by the plunge on Southampton to finish in the Premier League top four yesterday evening. For example Ladbrokes cut from 6/1 to 4/1. The market move was not a result of my morning blog post and my follower(s) sticking on! A well known tipping site recommended a maximum bet on the south coast side around 16:30 yesterday nearly six hours after my post.

Despite the relatively easy start for Southampton, I think their stats read quite well. Everyone is talking about their striking prowess (20 in nine). Equally impressive though is their defensive record. They have conceded just five goals - fewer than any other team in the whole of the (four-division) football league.

So there we have it. If you took the 6/1 you've had a value bet and that's not just my opinion....

Southampton - Premier League

There's no doubt Southampton are the surprise package of the season. Even though we are only one quarter through the season their tally of 19 points from nine matches is impressive. With Chelsea and Man City certain to finish in the top four, there are effectively two further places up for grabs. I think Southampton have a sporting chance of remaining in the top four and have backed them today - at what I consider generous odd of 6/1:

3pts Southampton to finish top four in Premier League @ 6/1 Boylesports

(Also available with Ladbrokes)

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X-factor update

My main selection Lauren (taken at 11/2) has drifted to 7/2 in the light of increased support for the favourite Andrea to around 6/4. I still don't see him as the winner but could well be wrong of course! 

Bad news with the Groups' match bet. OTY were stitched up by the running order singing second during the overlap time with SCD. Add to that the massive pimping of the dreadful eight-fold it means the latter are back to odds-on to win this category. If you took 9/2 OTY you could secure a guaranteed profit now by betting the others @ 4/6 with Ladbrokes. I'm sticking with OTY though as I only have a small bet on the quartet. 

Fleur, recommended to small stakes at 14/1, did well last night and has been trimmed a couple of points. I've not backed her EW so have just decided to have a small bet on her to beat the other three in her category as follows:

1pt Fleur to win "Top Overs" @ 5/2 Betfred

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Doncaster - Saturday

Disappointed with yesterday's result after my selection was heavily supported late morning. Two against the field in the sprint today to small stakes: 

15:15D 0.75pt win 0.5pt place Demora @ 14/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4

15:15D 0.75pt win 0.5pt place Elusivity @ 20/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4

2.5pts staked.

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Doncaster

We are nearing the end of the flat season. I'm having a couple of plays at Donny as this meeting has proved profitable in the past. One race tomorrow and another on Saturday. On Friday I'm tackling the very tricky 22-runner 6f handicap with just one selection. I'm going for a soft ground performer ridden by a seven pound claimer. The jockey is Rachel Richardson who I think is quite useful and well worth her claim. She won on the selection at Ponte and Ripon earlier this season. I've had:

15:30D 1.5pts win 1pt place Fast Shot @ 20/1 Coral BOG 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4.

2.5pts staked. 

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Richard Hughes

Hughes has landed my 8 pts @ 5/2 wager placed back in August. Although the flat season has not yet finished, RLM has declared he will have no more domestic rides this term. All major bookmakers have paid out on RH - including Coral.

This 20 pts profit has increased the calendar year profits to 136 pts or 31%.

It has been a low staking year compared to 2012/3 for reasons already explained. Nice to be well ahead though.

Full details here.

Paddy Power stewards

Paddy Power has cut the price of Pelle TGS to 16/1 and changed the place terms from EW 1,2,3,4 to EW 1,2,3.

According to the company this happened at 11:33 nearly two hours after I had my bet/blogged the details. Nothing strange in that you might think - despite this being a major football market it surely couldn't be affected by the small number of people that read my blog?

Having checked the terms and conditions of my bet, however, I noticed Paddy Power has recorded it as EW only 1,2,3. I have contacted the company to complain and have been told it will be amended. If you have had a similar bet I suggest you check the details.

The price (20/1) and ew 1,2,3,4 is still available with skybet as I write.

Premier League TGS (2)

Danny Welbeck has started rather slower than anticipated but at least he is a shorter price now than that taken (66/1) at the beginning of September. Unfortunately Arsenal have huge injury problems which is not helping his cause. Aguero scoring four for MC in a single match is no help either! 

I've had a second bet on this market in the hope and belief that it's not all over yet. Costa and Aguero lead the way on nine goals. The surprise package this season is Southampton and they are scoring plenty of goals. Pelle scored twice in their 8-0 mauling of Sunderland and should have had at least a hat-trick in the 80 minutes he played. The number of bookmakers offering 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 is drying up with the majority offering three places now. Pelle is currently joint third on six goals and I have had:

1pt EW Pelle to be Premier League TGS @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

(Also available Skybet)

Two points staked.

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Erect Kiosks

I'd been watching the marvellous Gillian Anderson in A Streetcar Named Desire from the Young Vic, so thankfully I had no opportunity to see the x-factor results show. 

I was rather surprised to learn that the dreadful Stereo Kicks had managed to find themselves in the bottom three. As a result they have drifted to 36 on Betfair whereas OTY are currently 29. As a consequence the top group betting is now close. 

Here is an update on the prices taken on Thursday:

Lauren to win 11/2 now typically 3/1.

Fleur to win still 14/1 in places.

OTY to win 40/1 EW now 25/1 is best EW price.

OTY top group 9/2 now 6/5 best price. 

A long way to go but chances of a winning return...

                                                           

Ascot

Ascot looks interesting from a spectator point of view but not so clever for punting with the ground described as heavy, soft in places. So with that in mind I've had two bets in the most difficult race - the lucky last - where it's 10/1 the field! 

First choice is David O'Meara's Fort Bastion who we were on at the last Ascot meeting. Ran a poor race in first time visor, now in first time cheek pieces. The other selection is made primarily because of the ground but also the jockey...

16:45A 0.75pts EW Fort Bastion @ 25/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

16:45A 0.5pts EW Bold Thady Quill @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

(NB BTQ is currently 33/1 with WH and Boyles but they offer only four places EW).

Stakes kept to a minimum on this potentially difficult day for punters.

Total 2.5pts staked. 

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X-factor shite

I was not intending to have a bet but having watched the dreadful programme for the first time this year last weekend I have decided to get involved. Reason being I think the favourite is worth opposing. Surely after one week of the live shows 6/4 is far too short with a total of 14 acts still involved. Therefore I am opposing Andrea Faustini as I believe he may have peaked too soon. My main selection is Lauren Platt at 11/2 available with Betfred and others, plus a small bet on Fleur East:

3pts win Lauren Platt to win x-factor @ 11/2 Betfred

1pt win Fleur East to win x-factor @ 14/1 Betfred

I see that 'Sofabet' put up ''New Boy Band" at 11/2 as the most likely winner ahead of the live shows. (Incidentally they are now called Stereo Kicks - ludicrous name.) Big drifter on betfair and now available at 12.5 after just one week of the live shows. Can't have an eight-timer - ridiculous concept. So I'm going to oppose them too by backing the only other group left in the competition as follows: 

1pt win Only The Young to be top group @ 9/2 Betfred

0.5pts EW Only The Young to win x-factor @ 40/1 Coral (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

Total six points staked.

Don't know yet whether I will be having a bet at Ascot on Saturday. Looks like the ground will be very heavy if the meeting goes ahead. Probably decide Saturday morning. Things going well recently though with 7/1 and 11/1 winners tipping the accumulative win % for 2014 above 28%. Happy days.

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Joni Mitchell albums for an incredible £2 each!

I won't be buying this collection. But that's because I already have everything she has recorded. But this collection is such extraordinary value I thought it was worth bringing it to your attention. It features her TEN studio albums recorded between 1968-1979. And yet it costs only £21.17 post free from Amazon...

Click here: Joni Mitchell studio albums

Newmarket - Cesarewitch

Only one race of interest today. That's the big handicap at Newmarket. I've had small bets on two horses that have not won on the flat for three years! However both have finished second over course and distance. The first selection was beaten a neck in the trial last month. The other poke was second last year in this race:

15:50New 1.5pts win 1pt place Big Easy @ 11/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)

15:50New 0.75pts EW Waterclock @ 50/1 Boylesports BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

Four points staked. 

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England v San Marino

England as you probably know are 1/100 to win this match. But what will the score be? I've played the following scores with Paddy Power who are offering a money back special:-

0.75pts England to win 4-0 @ 8/1 Paddy Power 

1pt England to win 5-0 @ 7/1 Paddy Power 

0.75pts England to win 6-0 @13/2 Paddy Power 

Should the above be losers, stakes will be refunded (as a free bet) if Welbeck scores the first goal (up to £100 apparently). This is the default option but you can choose a different scorer if you wish. 

I've also backed Welbeck to score a hat-trick at 6/1. Might seem a short price but this is the top price - he is as short as 11/4 elsewhere. Scored two in England's last match - away to Switzerland - so why not three here!

1.5pts Welbeck to score hat-trick against San Marino @ 6/1 Betfred

Total staked four points. 

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Weekend results

No good at Ascot: loss 3.5pts.

Moviesta ran a great race to finish third beaten a couple of heads in the Longchamp sprint: -1pt

Flintshire ran a good race to finish second in the Arc. Returning 7.25pts. Profit on race 2.25pts. Only consolation here is I would never had backed the winner. Didn't think she could come back.

Longchamp - Sunday

Having given some more thought to the Arc I'm going to add two more selections now rather than wait until tomorrow or Sunday. Ruler Of The World is coupled with Treve and Ectot in the PMU so I have backed Dettori's mount at a fixed price, there being no potential value on the PMU. I've also backed another French contender with W Hill. However it will still be worth comparing the PMU prices with those on offer with UK bookmakers on Sunday because of the expected money for the three Japanese contenders which could distort the PMU market.

I have also had a shot at the Prix De L'Abbaye, an impossible race run over less than five furlongs. Here are the additional weekend selections:

Sun 13:00L 1pt win Moviesta @ 16/1 Betfred BOG

Sun 15:30L 2pts win Avenir Certain @ 9/1 William Hill BOG
Sun 15:30L 1pt win Ruler Of The World @ 16/1 Coral BOG

The two French races are incredibly competitive so don't be surprised if I draw a blank! As for my earlier Ascot post for tomorrow, Pricewise has gone for Chill The Kite so its price has naturally been shaved. The Sporting Life judge, Ben Linfoot, names Fort Bastion amongst his choices so that one's price has been cut too! So at least taking the earlier prices on offer was the right thing to do whatever the outcome!

Incidentally Gina Harding told us last night that Flintshire's trainer Andre Fabre "had a twinkle in his eye" when she spoke to him about his chance of winning the Arc. I suspect though that the twinkle may just have resulted from being interviewed by Gina! Still at least he didn't say he didn't fancy its chances........

Ascot Saturday

Have had a couple of plays in the big handicap at Ascot tomorrow. The main selection is wearing a visor for the first time and is having his first run for David O'Meara: 

15:50A 2pts win Fort Bastion @ 20/1 Paddy Power BOG

15:50A 1.5pts win Chill The Kite @ 16/1 Coral BOG

I will also be having some plays on Sunday's Arc. The market will be very interesting on the day because one would expect the Japanese horses to be heavily backed on the PMU. I would also expect the EW terms from the UK bookmakers to improve. Some are currently offering only 1/5 the odds 1,2,3 even though there are 20 runners and it will be 6/1 or 7/1 the field. Boyles at least are 1/4 1,2,3,4. For now I have had:

Sun 15:30L 1pt ew Flintshire @ 25/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) BOG  

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Bit of a Jackson Browne day today:

Results

A poor day for blog racing yesterday. A blank day in fact.

Murray beat Robredo this morning in Shenzhen to earn his first title since winning Wimbledon last year. Incredibly he saved five match points in the second set tiebreak. Plays Beijing next which is a much tougher proposition. On paper he would need to beat Cilic, Djokovic and Nadal to win the title.

With the Shenzhen victory he moves up to no. 10 in the 'race' to London. He could yet make the required top eight if he does well in his next two tournaments. He has no points to defend having been out of action during this time last year.

On the other hand if he ends the year with just the Shenzhen tournament win it will mean a very good payout for the Murray performance blog bets!

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Saturday racing

A big day at headquarters with the Cambridgeshire. Not going to get too involved here just a token bet on the champion jockey's mount Quick Wit. Could be well handicapped and is a huge price.

15:50N 1pt win Quick Wit @ 40/1 Bet365 (BOG)

Elsewhere the six/five furlong handicaps at Haydock look interesting. Some of the Ayr "Cup" horses do battle again. In the 15:35 our Bronze Cup winner Expose carries a penalty and is short enough. I'm going to give another chance to Cruise Tothelimit, who I also backed in the Bronze Cup. The latter was a massive drifter that day so maybe something was not quite right. Certainly he ran poorly having been on a hat trick.

15:35H 1.5pt win Cruise Tothelimit @ 25/1 William Hill (BOG)
15:35H 1pt win Run With Pride @ 8/1 Betfred (BOG)

In the other race, on a big golf day when all we have on Radio 5 is the whispering ubiquitous Claire Balding, I have backed:

16:10H 1.5pts win Ballesteros @ 10/1 Paddy Power (BOG)
16:10H 0.5pt win Algar Lad @ 16/1 Coral (BOG)

Total stakes 5.5 points.

Good luck today if you get involved...

Standing ovation in the sitting room

There was a standing ovation for local favourites Grey Wolf when they played "The Sitting Room" tonight. Ludlow's "quirky little secret" was hosting a relaunch party following refurbishment. Band members Ben Walsh, Jim Allen and Martin Thomas delighted the capacity crowd (perhaps 40 people  - it's an intimate venue after all!) with their unique brand of acoustic folk:

Mugray alert

Looks like he could win his first title of the year - in Shenzhen. Now an odds-on chance after Ferrer was beaten today. Not a big concern though with the ante-post bets on the Scot.

In fact if he wins one tournament and no more this year it would be the best result for the blog....

Boo

"Do you ever get the feeling that you're living someone else's life?

And all the time you thought that you were happy and didn't think twice

The winter that we spent together got so cold I thought we'd die

And the dress you wore at Easter that made me cry

I'll meet you at the world's end

Two saints walking arm in arm

I'll meet you at the world's end

Two saints walking arm in arm

Young again


The smoke from burning bridges has been stinging in our eyes for years

So all the time we never knew there is no better place


I'll meet you at the world's end

Two saints walking arm in arm

I'll meet you at the world's end

Two saints walking arm in arm

Young again...."

Boo Hewerdine: "World's End"

 

Wuhan Open

How ironic that the only player in the world's top 17 not engaged in this week's tournament is Li Na. The Chinese player of course announced her retirement in the the last few days. Wuhan is her home town. 

A tremendous event and covered live by the excellent BT Sport. I watched an impressive Caroline Garcia take down A-Rad over three long sets this morning. This followed a long match against Venus. Both matches were completed with third set tie-breaks showing how well Caroline was able to hold her nerve. The question now is has the 20-year-old got anything left? Maybe she has and perhaps Mugray's prediction that she will hit the top of the women's game will come true in 2015? 

The other 20-year-old (there is only eight days between her and the aforementioned French woman) who I believe is a tremendous prospect is the statuesque six-foot Muguruza. The Spaniard reached the semis of the Tokyo Open last week and will have to be at her very best in her next match as she is Halep's first opponent here. The two have never met but perhaps the underdog can catch the world number two cold? 

Anyway two very speculative bets on the event as follows:

0.5pts ew Garcia @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pts ew Muguruza @ 33/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Two points staked. 

Ayr Festival

Just like old times (when I had the time and motivation to offer a daily racing service) with some very good profits up at Ayr. Winners of the Bronze and Silver Cups landed but only third place in the big one. Nice 25 point profit though across the two days.

Ayr results

2014 results

Ayr Saturday

Well that's more like it! 16/1 Expose obliges for us - albeit with a 10p in £ R4 deduction. So 15.4 points return for the four point outlay.

Going to press up in the Silver and Gold Cups tomorrow:

14:40A 1.5pts win Huntsman's Close @ 12/1 William Hill BOG
14:40A 1pt win Mehdi @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

15:50A 2pts win Blaine @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
15:50A 1pt win Racy @ 33/1 Coral BOG

May have another bet in the morning.

Total 5.5 points staked

Scotland

Well that was disappointing to say the least. Having backed the Yes team to get over 45% they end up on 44.7%.

Going to have a couple of plays in the other Scottish event taking place - Ayr. This was an incredibly successful meeting for me last year but the ground conditions are very different this week. It was soft on this day last year and in fact the word soft appeared in the going description in each of the four years since 2009 (on the Friday). Anyway having a bash at the Bronze Cup today (and potentially the Silver and Gold Cups tomorrow). I may blog Saturday's bets immediately after the Bronze result, but for now I've had:

14:40A 2pts win Cruise Tothelimit @ 14/1 Coral BOG

14:40A 1pt win Expose @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

14:40A 1pt win Rothesay Chancer @ 33/1 888.com

Four points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Scottish Independence Referendum

I've become bored with the media blanket coverage of tomorrow's vote, particularly now that Gordon Brown appears to be heading up the 'No' campaign. It seems incredible though that the result could be anything other than 'No' given the uncertainties that a 'Yes' decision could produce. (Eg. EU membership, currency, future of banks, share UK debt).

However the polls say it's too close to call with the latest three polls predicting 48% Yes and 52% No. I've therefore played in excess of 45% Yes in the following way:

4pts Yes % vote 45.01% - 50.0% @ 5/4 Betfred 

4pts Yes majority vote @ 5.3 Betfair (approx 4/1 after commission)

At least that should make the next 48 hours interesting!

Eight points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Premier League TGS

Not got involved on the blog in any football for the 2014/15 UK season. Bought the RP football pull-out and got very bored reading it - putting it to one side after just a few pages.

However have just had a bet on the Prem TGS. Danny Welbeck, who must have got a boost from last night's England match in which he scored twice. I didn't watch the game as I had no financial interest in it, so am just betting blind having seen the result. The top teams: Chelsea, Man City and to a lesser extent MU will have many scoring options. Not the case at Arsenal and you can see DW starting plenty of matches in the Premier League. I have had:

1pt ew Danny Welbeck to win Prem TGS @ 66/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4).

Only a small bet so above bookmaker may accommodate you. If not plenty of 50/1 available which is still value IMO.

Sent from my iPad 

US Open wrap

Federer's exit tonight means the end of the blog's interest in the US Open outright markets. Can't make excuses for any of the selections....good value losers most of them.

Fortunately Andy Murray is keeping us very firmly in the black with two (Christmas day 2013) ante-post bets now landed: no grand slam wins in 2014 (10pts @ 5/4) and no grand slam finals played (2pts @ 5/1). We also have potential payouts on one of: zero, one or two ATP tournaments won in 2014 with the current score zero. My guess is he will play a maximum of three more tourneys in 2014: Shanghai, Paris indoor and possibly London - although the latter may have to be as a reserve.

Finally can I just remark on the ludicrous ride given to Highland Acclaim this afternoon. Having dwelt from the stalls, the jockey decided to switch from his low draw position (stall two) right over to tuck in behind the (high) stands' side runners, thus losing acres of ground. When the selection finally got into gear he surged up the rail to finish in fifth place beaten just two heads and two short-heads.I would think David O'Meara was furious.

Ascot

Had a couple of bets in the first race at Ascot today:

13:55A 1.5pts win Highland Acclaim @ 12/1 Betfred BOG
13:55A 1.5pts win Pacific Heights @ 16/1 William Hill BOG

Three points staked.

Interesting developments in the jockeys' championship. It was only three weeks ago I took the widely available 5/2 about Hughes retaining the championship. He's now a best priced 1/5 to do so. What has happened since? Well RH has closed the gap to six (was double figures) but more importantly RLM has a four-day ban looming and has declared to the media that he will probably miss the last couple of weeks of the season owing to international commitments.

US Open

Absolutely no good in the warm up tournaments so will be hoping for some joy in the big one which gets underway at 16:00 UK time on Monday. I am having a look at the quarter betting and if I have a bet will either post tonight or tomorrow morning. Meanwhile here is the latest on my six outright ante-post bets, now that the draws have been done and the markets have settled down:

Men's singles

 Federer  Price taken: 6/1             Best win price now: 11/4

 Raonic    Price taken 80/1           Best ew price now: 28/1

Dimitrov  Price taken 40/1            Best ew price now: 20/1

Ladies' singles

V Williams Price taken 100/1      Best ew price now 50/1

Kvitova      Price taken 20/1        Best ew price now  10/1

Bouchard   Price taken 10/1        Best ew price now 22/1

Other than Bouchard the portfolio looks ok. The Canadian, as well as being completely out of form, is carrying a hamstring injury. So her prospects look bleak.

It would of course be better for the Murray Christmas bets if he fails to regain the US Open title. He has drifted to 10 on betfair following the draw which has placed him in Djoko's quarter. I wouldn't blame you - if you are on the full Murray portfolio - having a point or two hedge @ 10.0. However I am sitting tight!

Enjoy the tourney. It's being shown on Sky Sports and Eurosport in the UK.

Goodwood Saturday

I'm going to give one more chance to Majestic Moon who let me down at Ripon last Saturday. I have had:

14:55G 1pt ew Majestic Moon @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) 

(Win stake returned as a free bet if placed second or third)

Two points staked.

WTA New Haven 2

Bouchard: gone at the game. The player who has reached the last four of every GS this year culminating in a run to the Wimbledon final without dropping a set. Since then, four matches played and just one victory. Hugely disappointing. 

One more stab at this tournament. Watched Giorgi completely destroy Wozniacki  yesterday. The Dane had no answer to the Italian's powerful play. However she is very streaky and could come out and play a stinker today. Her next opponent is Muguruza and if she gets those big strikes going the statuesque Spaniard will have no answer. If she wins tonight she would be favourite to win her semi. I have had:

1.5pts ew Giorgi to win WTA New Haven @ 8/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2) 

Three points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

WTA New Haven

Quite happy with my men's US Open punts - Federer is now a top price 7/2 following the anticipated withdraw of Nadal. This means of course Federer will be seeded two in the opposite half to Djoko. The other two selections are also trading at shorter prices than those taken.

It's a different story in the ladies' US Open. Both Bouchard and Kvitova have had terrible results since their Wimbledon final. They are playing New Haven this week in an attempt to find some form ahead of the last GS of the year.

Kvitova will do well to get past Makarova in the next round. The Russian beat the dual Wimbledon champion recently in Montreal. Bouchard beat BoJo last night 6-1 6-1 in 52 minutes. She had lost their only previous encounter at Edgbaston in 2013. Does this mark a return to form for the Canadian? It needs to otherwise I can see her having no chance next week. Next up for the youngster is a match with Stosur, the Aussie having taken over 2.5 hours to get past Nara yesterday.

The interesting thing about the betting here is that Genie is 10/1. Roughly the same price as she is to win the US Open. Yet Serena and Sharapova are not here and Halep, the favourite, is in the other half of the draw. Kvitova is too short at 5/1. So I have had: 

2pts ew Genie Bouchard to win WTA New Haven @ 10/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Four points staked.

(Please note Betfred is showing 12/1 Bouchard on oddschecker - that's yesterday's price, the compiler is obviously still asleep!)

Sent from my iPad 

US Open

One week to go to the final GS tournament. Of course we have the chance of a decent pick up on Murray if he fails to win the men's singles. The bets I placed on Christmas Day are looking very promising (who else gets bored on Christmas Day?!). He has not reached a final in any tournament this year so the bets could yield a decent profit. Here's a reminder of them:

http://mikequigley.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/mugray.html

I'm not going to hedge on Murray @ 9/2 for the US Open. I'll just let the various bets run. 

It's possible that Murray might not make the O2 end of season tournament as he is not currently ranked in the top eight. He might be showing up as a reserve. 

As for who is going to win the men's singles, there could be an upset. The warm favourite Djoko was unexpectedly beaten in the lead up tournaments by Tsonga and Robredo. Nadal is a possible non-runner, deciding in the next 48 hours whether he will participate. Murray is not playing well. Federer is though. I have added him to my portfolio today:

3pts Federer to win men's US Open singles @ 6/1 Coral

That means I have three players against the field with bets already placed on Raonic (80/1) and Dimitrov (40/1). 

The ladies' portfolio consists of Bouchard (10/1), Kvitova (20/1) and Venus Williams (100/1).

Good luck if you are involved. 

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Great St Wilfred Handicap

Having looked at the race last night I thought Majestic Moon looked the best of RA Fahey's four contenders. Disappointed to learn it's a Pricewise selection which means the price has contracted. Was hoping for 16/1 but 14/1 with Coral will suffice with first five ew betting available. Only Coral and Bet365 are offering first five. I've had:

15:30R 1.5pts ew Majestic Moon @ 14/1 Coral BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

(Plus win stake - up to £25 - is returned as a free bet if second beaten a head or less!)

Three points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Jockeys' Championship

Richard Hughes has told everyone he is going to challenge for the championship despite being 15 winners behind RL Moore. Doesn't mean he can get there but the commitment is significant. His declaration may also have a (negative) influence on RLM. 

The markets have not moved much since Hughsie's declaration and 5/2 represents a reasonable  price for him to achieve his objective. This is the current price offered by Coral, Paddy Power and Bet365. I have had:

8pts Richard Hughes to be 2014 champion jockey @ 5/2 Coral

Sent from my iPad 

Cincinnati update

Well would you believe it following the exit of Djoko, Mugray is now favourite to win the tournament. The Scot has not reached a final this year and has not beaten a top ten player since  Wimbledon 2013. In the last round he saved a match point in getting past Isner in a final set tie-break. I wouldn't be in a hurry to back him @ 2/1.

My tournament selection is still in there having also won his last match on a final set tie-break. Raonic now plays Fognini for a chance to play Mugray or Federer in the semi. 

In the other side of the draw Stan has been presented with an opportunity to reach the final. He's been in indifferent form since his Aus Open win but now faces Benneteau and if successful would meet Ferrer or Djoko's conquerer Robredo in the semi. I've had a bet with William Hill who are still offering ew betting:

1.5pts ew Stan Wawrinka to win ATP Cincinnati @ 5/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2)

Three points staked.

Sent from my iPad

Cincinnati ATP/WTA

My two picks for this week's tennis for small stakes:

1pt ew Milos Raonic to win ATP Cincinnati @ 14/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pts ew Venus Williams to win WTA Cincinnati @ 25/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.25pt ew double.

Total 3.5 pts.

Sent from my iPad 

Weekend results

Federer second 5/1

Mickleson second 10/1

No bets today!

Sent from my iPad

USPGA Championship

McIlroy is one shot clear as the final round approaches. He is as short as 4/7 to win which makes a market for each-way betting. Most - but not all - bookmakers are offering 1/5 odds 1,2,3. I've had a couple of bets as follows:-

1.5pts ew Phil Mickelson to win USPGA @ 10/1 Paddy Power (1/5th odds 1,2,3) 

0.5pts ew Louis Oosthuizen to win USPGA @ 40/1 Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1,2,3)

0.5pts ew Louis Oosthuizen to win USPGA WITHOUT McIlroy @ 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Total five points. 

Elsewhere Fed has reached the Toronto final and plays Tsonga tonight. Roger holds a 11-5 HTH and has beaten Jo in their last two encounters. However Jo has already overcome massive HTHs against Djoko and Mugray in this tournament and is obviously playing at the top of his game.

No joy in the Shergar Cup. Dettori not at the races but Williams managed third place. 

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Shergar Cup

Tennis losers overnight with Raonic and Vika going out. The latter had been carrying a serious leg injury for most of the tournament. So we are left with just Federer. We need the Swiss to win the event to finish in front. He is 4/6 to do so.

Turning to the Shergar Cup. Last year I managed to find Mosse at a big price for top jockey. This year Fortune has a chance but has been put up by Pricewise so the value has gone. My selections this year are rather more obvious. Frankie's rides look particularly attractive. The first four are all single prices and three of them could start favourite. I even give a squeak to his rag in the last which I have had a small bet on. It's dropped in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time:

4pts L. Dettori to be top jockey @ 7/2 Coral
1pt ew C. Williams to be top jockey @ 6/1 William Hill (1/5th odds 1,2,3)

0.75pts ew Rufford @ 22/1 Coral (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

7.5 points staked.

Tennis - Canada 2

One more small bet this time on the home hope Raonic who has just won the Citi Open with some amazing stats. The problem for him his trying to win back to back tournaments plus his poor record against Fed should they meet in the semi-final. But you have to admire the figures from his winning week:

Aces: 83

Service games won: 98% (52 of 53)

Break points saved: 88% (7 of 8)

First service points won: 88%

I can't let him go unbacked at Fred's current price:

1pt ew Raonic to win ATP Toronto @ 14/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1/2)

Two points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Tennis - Canada

Have had a couple of bets in the Canadian tournaments taking place this week. 

I'm going for Federer in the men's event partly because of his good record here as well as his excellent showing at Wimbledon. But also because of his draw. Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov and Wawrinka are all in the other half of the draw. Nadal is absent through injury. 

In the ladies' event I'm hoping that the Wimbledon champion Kvitova can continue her good form. She too appears to be well drawn with Serena, Pova and Bouchard in the other half. Azarenka, if returning to form, could provide a test for the No 1 Czech player should they both reach the semi-final. My bets are:

2pts ew Federer to win ATP Toronto @ 5/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

2pts ew Kvitova to win WTA Montreal @ 9/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

1pt ew double the above two selections.

1pt ew Azarenka to win WTA Montreal @ 16/1 Betfred (1/2 odds 1/2)

Twelve points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Stewards' Cup 2

My first selection in the big race is all the rage having subsequently been revealed as a Pricewise selection. Likely to start at 5/1 or even 9/2. My second bet in the race is as follows:

15:50G 1pt ew Seeking Magic @ 16/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

In other news, last night's speculative SPOTY selection Fragapane was cut earlier this morning from 33/1 to 16/1 and then to 8/1 by William Hill. Best bookmaker price is currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes although bits and pieces at bigger odds are available on betfair (win only of course). 

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SPOTY

We've seen Beth Tweddle in the shake up before (third in 2006) so why not Claudia Fragapane? Probably a shoe-in for the "young" version of the award but a big price with WH for the senior event and ew terms available too. I have had:

1pt ew Claudia Fragapane to win SPOTY @ 33/1 William Hill (1/5 odds 1,2,3)

Two points invested.

Sent from my iPad 

Stewards' Cup

My first pop at the big race is rather an obvious choice. However a six pound penalty may not be sufficient to stop my selection winning again. I have had:

15:50G 3pts win Muthmir @ 7/1 Betfred BOG 

This price is also available at the time of writing with Ladbrokes, Bet Victor and Stan James.

I will almost certainly have another bet in the race and if I do I will publish on the blog before 11am tomorrow.

Sent from my iPad 

Women's US Open

I already have two players in this portfolio: Kvitova and Bouchard. I've now added Venus Williams at a big price following her straight sets victory over Vika at Stanford. The latter is single figures for the last GS event of the year with most firms. Admittedly Vika is still on the come back trail but this was a fine win for Venus. I am still thinking what might have been at Wimbledon because Venus was so close to putting out the eventual winner with no-one particularly decent to play (after that match) until the final. 

Anyway I wanted to take the bet now as there is a small chance Venus could beat Petko in the next round and then potentially Serena (or Ana) for a place in the final. Her US price would crash if she was to win her next two matches. I have had:

0.75pts ew Venus Williams to win US Open @ 100/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

1.5pts staked (available with several other firms at this price ew and also @ 125/1 888.com win only).

Elsewhere I still intend to plod along with the occasional blogged big race bet with the few remaining bookmakers who will lay me more than a tenner. Think I was definitely on a decent play with Bronze Angel (12/1>9/1) at Ascot last week despite it not making the frame. I noticed (after I published my selections) that several "good judges" also suggested bets on it including Neil Channing (Betting Emporium) and Raceclear. Will probably have a go at tomorrow's Stewards' Cup which looks impossible and therefore is my kind of race! Will blog selection(s) tonight or by 11am Saturday. I certainly won't be betting with the sponsor 32Red who just seem to offer unbelievably uncompetitive odds on most events. I wonder who does bet with them?

Sent from my iPad 

Ascot

A rare horse racing bet today outside of the festivals:

15:15A 1pt ew Bronze Angel @ 12/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

15:15A 1pt win Belgian Bill @ 9/1 Coral 

15:15A 0.5pts Reverse SP forecast above two selections

Four points invested.

Sent from my iPad 

Open golf result

A good effort by Rickie Fowler to close the gap from six at the start of play today to just two strokes at the finish. Not quite good enough to take second place on his own, sharing that spot with Garcia. Therefore 11/4 chance becomes 7/8 winner.

GMac shot a 67 to finish tied ninth, as he didn't reach the magnificent seven there is no payout on him. Losing tournament but thankfully less than five points.

Not a huge loss in the scheme of things. Still 126 points to the good for 2014.

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Open golf - final round update

Looks like my main two selections (Rose, McDowell) are big odds today to reach the top seven and reward the ew bets. They both played well yesterday with sub-70 rounds but surely it will be a case of too little too late even for the place money. 

Unfortunately there is no ew betting today because Rory is such a short price to win. I've had a couple of bets though on his playing partner who is the only player apart from Rory to be sub-70 in their three rounds. It's a fairly obvious bet but I like the chances of Rickie staying ahead of the chasing pack. I have had:

3pts R Fowler to win Open w/o R McIlroy @ 11/4 Coral

1pt R Fowler to win Open @ 16/1 William Hill

Above prices available with several firms. Four points staked. 

Sent from my iPad 

Golf update

Just to advise that Paddy Power has cut Matsuyama by ten points since I posted earlier this evening - from 55/1 to 45/1. However the larger price is still available with Bet365 who are matching PP's offer of ew a quarter the odds the first seven places. The other two prices taken are still available as I write.

I may have another bet on the final day, depending on the status of the three bets already placed. Good luck if you get involved.

Sent from my iPad

Open Golf

Long term readers will know that I seldom bet on golf. Despite that I have a pretty good recent strike rate.  I tend to concentrate on this tournament. Last year I put up Phil @ 28/1 and the year before Ernie @ 25/1. The latter bet was actually placed/blogged on the morning of the final round.

This year I have persuaded myself to get involved now as I cannot resist some of the each-way terms on offer - despite the huge field. Betfred are offering 1/4 odds first eight places whereas Paddy Power and William Hill will payout on the first seven. I feel I don't need to explain my choices - you will probably know more about the players than I do. In any event this is what I have had:

1.5 pts ew J Rose @ 16/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1 pt ew G McDowell @ 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5 pts ew H Matsuyama @ 55/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Total six points staked

World Cup results

Very pleasing result last evening. The final worked out exactly as I thought (and hoped!) it might. The outcome resulted in a profit of over 40% on all bets placed on the tournament and pushed the annual profit back up above 45%.

World Cup portfolio:

 World Cup 2014

2014 results to date:

 Blog bets 2014

Obviously betting activity has been severely reduced this year - thanks to bookmaker account closures and restrictions - but at least the winning World Cup bets advised on this blog would have been easily accessible to most punters. Even the most cautious of bookmakers would have allowed reasonable bets on the WC final match to so-called "clever" punters!

I hope you had a profitable and enjoyable tournament.

World Cup final

In the semis I played the draws at 90 minutes with contrasting results. Germany embarrassed Brazil with a 7-1 win whereas the other semi finished 0-0 at odds taken of 11/5. 

I think the final could be very tight. Germany may have been flattered by their margin of victory over the hosts. The latter were easily beaten by Holland 3-0 last night. 

Argentina have only conceded three goals in the whole tournament. In the knockout stages - that's 330 minutes of football (two of the three matches having gone to extra-time) - they scored just two goals and did not concede. 

The last two World Cup finals (and three of the the last five) have finished all-square after 90 minutes. Therefore I conclude 9/4 the draw tonight (available with several firms) is a value bet. I have had:

4pts Germany v Argentina to draw at 90 minutes @ 9/4 Paddy Power

1pt win no goal scorer (90 mins) @ 13/2 Coral

Five points staked.

I need Germany to lift the cup having taken 7/1 with Coral (generally 4/6 now). No hedge suggested. There is the small consolation of stakes refunded (only up to £25) if Argentina prevail owing to the concession associated with this bet. Let's hope the Germans can oblige.

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Half-time WC semi

Well as they say the past is no guide to future results! The draw is a 400/1 chance now (at half-time) from 9/4. But at least we have Germany (7/1) in the final and they are 4/5 to win the World Cup as I write.

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World Cup semi-final matches

The knock-out stages of this World Cup have been very tight. In the round of 16 five of the eight matches were drawn at 90 minutes and no team scored more than two goals (including extra-time when played). 

In the quarter-finals although only one of the four matches was drawn at 90 minutes, only five goals in total were scored in 390 minutes of play. It would appear that there is no outstanding team amongst the final four as it's 5-2 the field to win the World Cup. 

The expectation is that the semi-final matches will be incredibly close and I have therefore backed the two matches to finish all-square at 90 minutes. My bets are:

2pts Brazil v Germany to draw at 90 minutes @ 9/4 Bet365

2pts Argentina v Netherlands to draw at 90 minutes @ 11/5 Bet365

1pt win double at the above prices (9.4/1) Bet365

Five points staked

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Profit update

Profits for 2014 now updated online including World Cup losers to date. Still got a chance of a few quid back with 7/1 Germany bet. Annual returns here: 

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php  (34% profit all bets)

As for Wimbledon just a small profit on the tourney: stakes 17.5 returns 21 profit just 3,5 points

 

Men's singles update

I was going to have a decent bet on Federer if they were going to start under the roof but that is not the case. Nevertheless I've had a bet on the Swiss as follows:

1.5pts Federer to win 3-0 sets  @ 13/2 Skybet

1pt Federer to win 3-1 sets @ 5/1 Paddy Power

2.5pts staked

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Wimbledon men's final

If I have a bet on the above I will blog the details shortly before the start of the match. It is due to start at 2pm.

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US Open 2

Well there we are both underdogs in the Wimbledon men's semis have lost and their prices for the US Open are significantly shorter than those taken yesterday. Dimitrov is a top price 25/1 after a credible performance against Djoko. He had three set points to take the match into a fifth set but it wasn't to be. Milos Raonic is a 40/1 chance to win the US Open following a straight sets defeat by Federer.

Turning to the ladies' US Open, there are doubts surfacing about the favourite Serena Williams. There are rumours in some quarters that the 2/1 favourite could be pregnant. Of the other leading contenders, Li Na could be set for a spell in the wilderness following the split with coach Rodriguez. Azarenka will need plenty of matches in the lead up to be a contender. 

I'm backing tomorrow's finalists for US glory as follows:

4pts Bouchard to win ladies' US Open singles @ 10/1 Paddy Power

1pt Kvitova to win ladies' US Open singles @ 20/1 William Hill

Five points staked.

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US Open

Given the improved performances of Dimitrov and Raonic at Grand Slam level I have taken a small interest (I am only laid small bets anyway) in the pair for the US Open. The market does not totally reflect their improved performances during this Wimbledon fortnight. 

Nadal and Murray, who have performed moderately at SW19, still represent a big % of the books as they are priced as low as 15/8 and 5/2 respectively in places. 

Even if neither underdog is successful tomorrow, I cannot see their price(s) drifting significantly. I have had:

1pt ew Raonic to win US Open men's singles @ 80/1 Skybet 1/2 odds 1,2 (NRNB)

(Also 80/1 Coral but not NRNB)

1.5pts ew Dimitrov to win US Open men's singles @ 40/1 Betfred 1/2 odds 1,2 

(Also available Betvictor if you can bet there)

Five points staked. 

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Wimbledon update

Dimitrov has reached the semi-final thanks in part to a lack lustre display from Murray. So that lands my 6/1 wager on Dimitrov to win the second quarter. 

Stakes and returns on the tournament to date are as follows: 

Total stakes 13.5 pts Returns 21 pts Profit 7.5 pts

(Total stakes include all outright, quarter and match bets.)

I've just re-invested a small portion of the overall profit on Grigor to win the tournament @ 8/1 with Boylesports (very similar price available with betfair at the time of writing):

1.5pts Dimitrov to win Wimbledon men's singles @ 8/1 Boylesports 

Obviously the (negative) Mugray portfolio of bets rolls on as he has not won a grand slam to date or reached the final of any sort of tournament for that matter. Indeed this defeat could see him slide outside the top ten making things even more difficult for him. Presumably he will be off to the US soon for the American swing ahead of the US Open. We may have to have a saver at some point but no further action at present in this area. 

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World Cup update

Of the three outright bets placed on South American outsiders on 4 December only one remains. Ten points were staked on that day on Colombia, Chile and Uruguay. We came very close to guaranteeing a semi-final spot when 50/1 Chile were a whisker away from upsetting the hosts. They hit the bar with just a couple of minutes of extra-time remaining when the match was tied at 1-1.

At least the biggest of the three bets was placed on Colombia @ 28/1 (2.5 points each-way). They must have a sporting chance of beating Brazil on Friday. The hosts' biggest assets are the crowd and Neymar. I understand that their leading striker has picked up an injury however. Colombia are now 12/1 in the outright list.

Germany at 7/1 is my only other outright bet still running and my dream result is a Colombia v Germany semi-final with the South American outfit prevailing. Well here's hoping.....

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Venus

So close to getting past Kvitova yesterday, Venus only lost her serve once throughout the whole match. That was the last game of the final set which she lost 7-5. Very disappointing as the draw had opened up with the earlier exit of the number two seed Li Na.

Kvitova now finds herself only a 7/1 chance to win the tournament as, on paper, she is expected to at least win the next two rounds. I think that would have been the case for VW too (perhaps 10/1 - 12/1) which would have given us a serious chance of getting a return had she made the last four. All academic now though and I suspect that was VW's last realistic shot at a major.

In the men's event Dimitrov is on course for a qtr final with Murray and is around 5/2 to reach the semis. Lopez and Janowicz are still in it for the third qtr bets however Federer is looking ominously good in this section.

Nadal

I'm probably completely mad but I think there is a significant chance of Nadal losing today. His last three results on grass have been losses: Dustin Brown, Steve Darcis and Lukas Rosel. Brown was just over a week ago at Halle whereas the other two defeats were at Wimbledon in '13 and '12

Today Nadal plays the Slovakian Martin Klizan who is no mug. He took a set from Nadal in their only meeting - at the French Open in '13. Klizan lost in the first round of Wimbledon last year but that was against Berdych. I have had a bet on betfair exchange where you will currently find the best odds. I got 9.6. There's not much of that left but there's a chunk of 9.2 available so I will book the bet at the latter price:

1.5pts win Klizan to beat Nadal @ 9.2 Betfair exchange 

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Wimbledon 3

Have had a further two bets in the men's quarter betting. This time taking on the two Swiss players in the third quarter with two players who both have above average grass court records: 

Jerzy Janowicz who reached the Wimbledon semi-final last year where he was beaten by Murray. Feliciano Lopez who was runner-up at Queen's before winning Eastbourne on Saturday. 

My bets are:

1.5pts Janowicz to win third quarter @ 16/1 Coral

1.5pts Lopez to win third quarter @ 14/1 Coral

Three points staked.

At the time of writing above prices are also available with Paddy Power. Incidentally Coral have now cut Dimitrov from 6/1 to 4/1 to win the second quarter although 5/1 is still available in places. 

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Royal Ascot summary

Disappointing end to the royal meeting with Don't Bother Me finishing a close up seventh @ 14/1 (from our 25/1). Thankfully Field Of Dream made it a winning week though:

Total stakes 14pts Returns 37pts Profit 23pts 

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Wimbledon 2

Dimitrov is now fifth favourite to win Wimbledon following his success at Queen's. The Bulgarian is around 20/1. I'm not convinced he is experienced or strong enough to win Wimbledon at this stage in his career as, if the seedings workout, he would have to beat Murray followed by Djokovic followed by Nadal. Big ask. He could go well though and I have therefore had an interest in him winning the second quarter. This would involve beating Ferrer and Murray if the seedings hold.

I have had:

3pts Dimitrov to win second quarter @ 6/1 Coral

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Royal Ascot - day five

It has to be the Wokingham tomorrow to complete the sequence of one race a day at Royal Ascot. Fortunately one of my selections won @ 28/1 so a good winning week whatever the outcome. Here are my thoughts for tomorrow:

17:00A 1.5pts ew Don't Bother Me @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

17:00A 1pt win Seeking Magic @ 12/1 William Hill BOG 

Four points staked. Good luck if you get involved. 

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Wimbledon

The draws have been released for the tourney which starts on Monday. I'm not getting heavily involved. I'm still disappointed at the result of the French Open ladies' tournament! Getting Bouchard and Petkovic to the semis at huge prices with little return (just 6/1 for Bouchard to win her quarter) was painful. 

The only interest we have going in is Venus @ 66/1 and a negative position on Murray. All the Murray bets are still running of course as he has not won a grand slam, or indeed a tournament, this year. If the seedings work out he would have to beat Djokovic and then Nadal to defend here. 

In the ladies' event, Sharapova has again been drawn in Serena's quarter. This didn't stop her winning the French but she didn't have to play Serena as the latter lost in the second round. Venus is drawn in the bottom half which is a positive. 

For now I've just had a small bet on Ivanovic. She has been playing well this year. She is drawn in the second quarter and if she was to reach the semis she could conceivably beat Pova or Serena on her day for a place in the final. A big ask but 33s appeals. I may have some quarter bets when the prices are published. 

1pt ew Ana Ivanovic @ 33/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2) 

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Royal Ascot - day four

No luck yesterday although I think it was the right thing to do to take on the AOB hot pot which finished unplaced.  Just picked the wrong each-way selection!

Going for one in the tricky looking last the Buckingham Palace Stakes.

Mezzotint has won on good ground or better but his two starts this season were both on soft ground. Not surprisingly perhaps he was unplaced. Paddy Power were offering top price but unfortunately I have missed it, however they offer the first six for each-way bets so I have still partly played with them. JOB is an interesting jockey booking. 

17:35RA 0.75pt ew Mezzotint @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)

               0.5pt win Mezzotint @ 33/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked.

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Royal Ascot - day three

Great result yesterday with Field Of Dream coming home the comfortable winner of the Royal Hunt Cup @ 28/1 (SP 20/1). That earned us 35 points profit on the day. 

Readers of this month's London Racing Club magazine will know my liking for non-handicap races with advantageous each-way terms. Such a race was the Prince Of Wales's Stakes yesterday with eight runners, an 8/13 favourite and most bookmakers offering 1/4 odds a place. 

The Norfolk Stakes has a similar shape today. Nine runners, an even money favourite and 1/4 odds a place offered by most firms. AOB supplies the market choice but the yard has not really sparkled here as yet. Pricewise opposes the favourite with the unexposed American challenger but I prefer Mukhmal the unbeaten Johnston colt. Paul Hanagan's mount won from the outside draw at Chester - not an easy thing to do - thanks to some blistering early pace. I have had: 

14:30A 2pts ew Mukhmal @ 11/2 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Four points staked.

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Royal Ascot - day two

No good on day one. Probably just playing one selection Wednesday, in the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup. Like the look of last year's Bunbury Cup winner. He is also a course winner and wears a hood for the first time following a lengthy lay-off:

17:00A 1pt ew Field Of Dream @ 28/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

If I have another bet it will be posted shortly after the above race has been run. 

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Let's go to war with Guerre

Apologies for cheesy headline. Couldn't resist it.

Not going to war exactly, just having a little bet on the AOB-trained RLM-ridden colt in the King's Stand  Stakes. (Lightly-raced) comfortable winner of his seasonal start at Naas. Not a great race for each-way bets as there are 17 runners and bookmakers are only offering first three places as I right. Coral best price though and at least they are 1/4 1,2,3 rather than a fifth:-

15:45A 1pt ew Guerre @ 12/1 Coral BOG (1/4 1,2,3) 

I'll be having a couple of bets at Ascot during the week. Usually on the hardest race of the day!

A winning treble?

No not three World Cup matches but will be three consecutive events for me. Last night was at superb Martin and Eliza Carthy gig which was part of Ludlow's Fringe Festival which runs until 6th July:

Tonight it's "As You Like It" - this year's offering from Ludlow's Shakespeare Festival in the castle grounds. Set in the sixties which should be interesting. Then Tuesday off to see "The Sea". Film of John Banville's 2005 Booker prize winning novel. Thought the book was a terrific read so looking forward to screen adaptation....

WC England v Italy

This should be a big turnover match for the bookmakers as it kicks off at 11pm on Saturday night. Plenty of punters getting tanked up before getting involved I suspect. They will want to see plenty of action....

What result would the bookmakers like to see? No doubt a draw and preferably 0-0.

I think they might get it. I have had:

2pts No goalscorer in Eng v Italy match @ 11/2 Coral (also with Skybet).

Cheer on the bore draw!..zzz....

World Cup

I can't believe it was way back in December I had my World Cup ante-post bets. Basically supporting the less fancied South American teams Columbia/Uruguay/Chile. Six months on and it seems the prices have hardly moved - with the exception of Columbia's price which has moved in the wrong direction! Not too much value there then...

Coral has a World Cup offer which seems generous, refunding outright losers if Brazil or Argentina win it. As they are first and second favourites I have been encouraged to support two more teams in the outright market. Bear in mind that the potential refund is only up to £25 however and it would, of course, be as a free bet. In terms of blog betting records I never include free bets if they are triggered - so just think of it as a small consolation if they come into play....

I have had:

3pts win Germany to win World Cup @ 7/1 Coral

2pts win Spain to win World Cup @ 13/2 Coral

Both prices above are the best currently available in the UK. Interestingly Ladbrokes offers only 5/1 Germany. 

Finally I've had just one small England negative bet in case it all goes pear-shaped:

1pt win England no tournament goal scorer @ 40/1 Skybet

Six points staked. Enjoy the tournament. 

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