Saturday results

It's called a "push" isn't it, when you neither win or lose money. Well that was pretty much what happened today, apart from a pesky 5p rule four which resulted in stakes = 3pts, returns = 2.9pts.

The Lincoln selection ran a decent race to finish runner-up. Indeed if you backed it through Will Hill's mobile app you will have received a 1pt free bet (up to £25 win stake) which is some consolation.

In someways the football results were more interesting with both Chelsea and Man City dropping points. Liverpool are generally 9/4 to win the title tonight and this gives encouragement to the 8/1 taken on 14 Feb. Now that they are firmly in the mix it will be interesting to see if they get nervous. We don't have long to discover if that's the case as they play host to Tottenham at 16:00 tomorrow.

Turf flat

I have outlined my reasons for not offering a full turf flat season service this term. Basically it revolves around not being able to get on! Apologies for that. Full details at the base of this piece:

 http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-details.php

I will however continue to have the occasional punt on big race days when I am accommodated. Tomorrow is Lincoln day of course and this used to be one of my favourite races. I've had the following, which you may consider not very adventurous:

15:50D 1pt ew Tullius @ 8/1 William Hill BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)

In an earlier race I have had:

14:40D 1pt win Maureen @ 11/2 Betfred BOG (6/1 av Ladbrokes)

Good luck with your bets this season.

Three points staked.

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Arsenal

I think Arsene might turn the game in following the humiliation at Chelsea. I have had a small bet at W Hill:

1pt Arsene Wenger to be next manager to leave Premiership @ 50/1 William Hill


Next best price is 33/1 Coral.

Miami tennis

Not a lot of time to talk about this so I am just going to post the three bets I have placed on reasonably priced players. Oddly the bets are all with Spreadex, with whom I bet rarely. I have selected a player in each of the second, third and fourth quarters. Serena is in the first quarter:

To win WTA Miami

1pt ew Venus Williams @ 22/1 Spreadex (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.75pts ew Pennetta @ 45/1 Spreadex(1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pts ew Muguruza @ 80/1 Spreadex (1/2 odds 1,2)

4.5pts staked.

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A successful Sunday

Some early tennis in the Shropshire sunshine.

Liverpool win comfortably at the hopeless Man Utd to boost the chances of my 8/1 wager to win the league placed 14 February: http://mikequigley.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/premier-league.html Now a best priced 7/2.

Land the jackpot at Navan - easy pickings - three out of four favs but still pays a respectable 301 euro. (Pool bets are not something I can blog because if my perm is successful anyone following me would simply severely reduce my returns. I did however tweet the Navan rollover/opportunity before racing).

Finally Pennetta (advised 12/1) wins Indian Wells to turn a small profit overall at the Californian venue. Pennetta remains 150/1 in a couple of places to win the French Open (eg. Sportingbet). Coral like her chances though offering only 33/1.

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Pennetta

Still getting over the excitement of Cheltenham! 

Didn't watch the ladies' tennis last night as it was taking place whilst I was asleep. Unfortunately Halep went out to A-Rad but in the other semi Pennetta caused an upset in beating Li Na. So we have my bet still running on the Italian @ 12/1. She will be around 6/4 to beat A-Rad on Sunday. I think she has a fair chance as she beat the Pole easily in Dubai recently. 

Looking even further ahead Pennetta is 150/1 to win the French Open whereas Li Na is 7/1. One tends to think of Flavia as being in the twilight of her career. However she is the same age as Li Na (actually just one day older) and generally players are extending their careers into their 30s (see Williams x2, Vinci, Stosur etc). 

In her last two grand slams Pennetta has reached the semi-final of the US Open and the quarter-final of the Australian Open. I have added her to my French Open portfolio as follows:

0.75pts ew Pennetta to win French Open @ 150/1 Betfair Sportsbook  (1/2 odds 1,2)

(Price also available at SJ and Sportingbet)

1.5pts staked

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All's well that ends well

After my negative outlook last night (!) there has been quite a turn around at Cheltenham. Ireland had just six winners coming into Friday - so then they go and have six more on the final day to land both the PP bets of 10 or more winners (4/5) and 12 or more winners (3/1).

This has helped us achieve a 38 points profit overall at the festival with a margin over 100%. Full Cheltenham 2014 portfolio as follows:

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Cheltenham-2014.php

Figures for 2014 and accumulative position also updated:

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php

Hope you managed to show a profit this week.

I'm no judge

What do I know?

Ireland now 10 winners with two races to spare. Can't surely be 12, only one runner in the next. Chance in the last.

Cheltenham stakes and returns update:

Stakes 34pts Returns 52pts Profit 18pts =  52.9%

Thanks to Paddy Power in the end!

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Cheltenham summary

A poor day for the Irish today with just one winner bringing their total to a disappointing six victories. It is highly unlikely that they will achieve the required four victories for our winning totals bet tomorrow. Should have known better perhaps not to take on Paddy Power in this market!

So after the euphoria of the Jezki win on the opening day we go into the final day with Triolo D'Alene running for us in the Gold Cup probably as a bet to nothing. According to Tom Segal (Pricewise, Racing Post) this has become the wise-guy selection (see his article tomorrow). Not too concerned about that remark as the respected pundit has given 17 consecutive losers this week in the "Post" without troubling the payout window. Just shows you how difficult it is to find winners here.

I will not be having any further bets at the festival as nothing appeals tomorrow. We have 25/1 and 16/1 the wise-guy horse (now 12/1 best, but only 8/1 Ladbrokes) and if it finishes out of the frame it will be total stakes 34pts, total returns 34pts for the four days' entertainment. Obviously if it is placed or better still wins it will have been a profitable week.

Hope you enjoyed the ride if you were involved.

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Thursday bet

Irish had only two winners today which gives us a total of five at the halfway stage. Achieving 12 looks unlikely now and 10 winners is on a knife edge unfortunately. 

Off to play tennis in the morning so just having one bet tomorrow - in the World Hurdle. Although Annie Power looks the business and gets the seven pound concession, there is a chance she could boil over in the preliminaries drifting out from her current mark of 6/4. I'm playing another Irish contender each-way as follows:

15:20C 1pt ew Rule The World @ 10/1 William Hill BOG

(Win stake refunded as a free bet if finishes second and wager placed on mobile app). 

Elsewhere Halep has won comfortably to be the first player through to the semi-final. Plays either Radwanska or Janko next who meet later this evening.

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Wednesday bets

Terrific win for Jezki in the Champion Hurdle to give us a nice return at 12/1. 

Don't fancy a lot today, just hoping for more Irish-trained winners. Three yesterday, would have hoped for four but we are still in the hunt for 10/12 at the festival. 

Just having the one bet on the Cheltenham card in the impossible bumper. Willie has three and I have gone for his current third choice in the betting, an impressive 16-length winner at Naas LTO:

17:15C 1pt win Killultagh Vic @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG 

(Money back if finishes second if bet placed through iPad app)

In the tennis Halep repelled the Bouchard challenge (the Canadian youngster was a break up in the final set). Halep now 11/4 to win tourney. Cornet played a good match but Radwanska too good for her.

In the top half of the draw at IW I have had a small bet. Pennetta plays the under-achiever Stephens next and then if successful either Li Na or Cibulkova for place in the final:

0.75pts ew Pennetta to win Indian Wells @ 12/1 William Hill (1/3 odds 1,2)

Our Gold Cup hope Triolo is now generally a 10/1 shot for Friday's race. We have 25/1 and 16/1 so value bets at least. McCoy takes the ride.

Wednesday stakes 2.5 points.

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Indian Wells update

In the WTA my three selections are through to the fourth round. Halep negotiated three sets against Safarova. Bouchard easily beat Errani. Cornet played a marathon match against CSN saving three match points in the process. The French woman now faces number two seed Radwanska. The Pole could not have had a more contrasting third round match beating Beck 60 60. A very tough assignment awaits Cornet.

Of course Halep and Bouchard now play each other. The winner will play an unseeded player for a semi-final spot. Although they have not met before, given the way she has played in her first two matches, I think the lower ranked player might win this. I have had:

2pts Bouchard to beat Halep @ 13/8 Coral

The match starts at 18:00 UK time.

Incidentally Dolgopolov, who we wanted to beat Anderson for a few quid recently, played unbelievable tennis last night to take out world number one Nadal in a final set tie-break. As Cornet might say, c'est la vie. 

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Cheltenham day one

The Champion Hurdle to look forward to today with my ew bets on Jezki and Our Conor. The latter is weak in the market as I write at 11/2 which is a concern. I have two bets on Hughes' charge at 5/1 and 9/2. The 9/2 bet is BOG with Skybet so the drift is not an issue for the price taken. Jezki could prove the better bet of the two with Barry Geraghty in the saddle. I am on at 12/1. Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented to act as a pacemaker for, you might assume, My Tent Or Yours. But I think this move is intended to assist Jezki. The J.P. McManus' second string could go off as short as 8/1.

Elsewhere on the card I'm just having one other bet. In the Mares' hurdle I'm taking on Quevega with Highland Retreat. Betfred are giving losing bet refunds (up to £25) if Quevega wins. Note that this does not apply to each-way bets. I have had:

16:00C 2pts win 1pt place Highland Retreat @ 16/1 Betfred (1/4 odds 1,2,3) BOG

Three points staked.

The above was placed as 1pt win and then 1pt ew. So the Betfred concession applies only to the 1pt win bet. Like all concessions/bonuses (and there are plenty of them) they do not count towards my returns shown in the bet records on my website. Just point them out for your information and interest.

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Irish trained winners (2)

I seldom bet odds on but have done so today on the eve of the great festival. Perhaps this wager will prevent me from betting in every race!:

10pts win 10 or more Irish trained winners at Cheltenham Festival @ 4/5 Paddy Power

The price for the above with William Hill is 4/7.

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Irish trained winners

Rather surprisingly perhaps Paddy Power are best priced for the optimistic view I have taken for Irish-trained winners at Cheltenham. I have had:

5pts win 12 or more Irish trained winners at Cheltenham Festival @ 3/1 Paddy Power

In the last three seasons this bet would have been a winner on two occasions. So this seems reasonable odds to me given the Irish strength in depth.

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Un De Sceaux

Now the word is Un De Sceaux will not be lining up in the Champion Hurdle.

In the Gold Cup the 16/1 Triolo D 'Arlene with W Hill has gone but that price is still available with several firms.

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LRC Cheltenham preview

Last night I attended the LRC Cheltenham preview. Quite a good panel. Apart from the Stan James man who kept telling everyone they were top price this, top price that. Problem is they don't lay any bets so it becomes very annoying after a while.

As for the two races I have already played, they didn't have many positive things to say about my selections Our Conor and Jezki in the Champion Hurdle. And a further blow is that it seems likely that Un De Sceaux will now take his chance which I wasn't expecting. 

Things look a bit brighter with my Gold Cup selection. I suggested last Sunday it could start 14/1 or 16/1. It's that price now so I'm happy with 25/1. 

Charlie Morlock - assistant trainer to N Henderson - was on the panel. He spoke quite highly of Triolo, going as far as to say he "couldn't split" Triolo and Bobs Worth. Given that one is 15/8 favourite and the other is 16/1 I know which one I would rather be on! As you will be aware I don't follow jockey, owner or trainer tips but I do take note of where trainers say they are aiming their charges and how they are progressing at home. I liked Triolo as the Hennessy winner, form that usually works out well. Given the stable confidence I have had a further bet on Triolo as follows:

1pt win Triolo D'Alene to win Cheltenham Gold Cup @ 16/1 William Hill NRNB

There are still 17 runners at the six-day stage so the above bet is win only. 

If I have any further thoughts on what I heard last evening I will post again in the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile in the WTA Indian Wells Halep, Cornet and Bouchard all won last night. Azarenka didn't win which has prompted several bookmakers to quote Halep as 4/1 joint-favourite for the event. That's encouraging.

ATP Indian Wells

I said on my previous tennis post that I was not going to get involved in the ATP event because it looked a probable Djoko v Nadal final. However that was before the draw was made. Nadal has a difficult draw as his half features the Fed, Stan and Mugray. The latter therefore, if the seedings held, would meet Nadal in the quarter final, Fed or Stan in the semi and then Djoko in the final. The Serb, in contrast, would appear to have a much easier route to the final. 

I have just had a small interest in Dimitrov who is in Djoko's side of the draw. The Bulgarian played extremely well to win Acapulco.last week holding his nerve in epic matches against Gulbis, Murray and Anderson - each in three tight sets. The surface in Acapulco is now exactly the same as the players will encounter in Indian Wells which will, of course, be of benefit to the Bulgarian. This is a much higher profile tournament of course and there will be plenty of media interest (given who his girl friend is) which could distract him. Consequently stakes are very modest:

0.75pts ew Dimitrov to win Indian Wells @ 66/1 Boylesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.75pts Dimitrov to win third quarter Indian Wells @ 4/1 Skybet

2.25 points staked.

 

Indian Wells

Not getting involved in the ATP here. Strong field including Nadal and Djoko who could contest the final (unless Federer can bring his recent form to the party). 

In the WTA event there is no Serena. I'm hoping Halep is over her injury and have played her @ 12/1. Unibet/888 obviously thinks she is now 100% as they price her at a ludicrous 4/1 for the outright. My modest portfolio is as follows:-

1pt ew S Halep @ 12/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pt ew E Bouchard @ 80/1 Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5pt ew A Cornet @ 100/1 Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Good luck if you get involved.

Four points staked. 

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Cheltenham Gold Cup

I have updated my figures for the calendar year. Sadly the last few bets means the net profit for the year has fallen below 100%! Pleased to report though that it's still very respectable (and unsustainable of course) at 99.7%. Full details available here: 

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php

More pleasing perhaps is that the accumulative % from the start (Dec '09) is holding up well at 24.0% despite the fact that I suggest bets on the blog only with bookmakers that accept my bets. Often there are bigger prices available elsewhere. For example accounts have been closed by Stan James, Victor, Ladbrokes and Sportingbet. This reduction in choice is one of the reasons for less activity this year. 

Having played the Champion Hurdle I've got involved in the Gold Cup today as Henderson has declared that Triolo D'Alene, the impressive Hennessy winner, will be aimed here. Of course Henderson is responsible for the ante-post favourite Bobs Worth so this is very much a second string. Apparently Triolo was very impressive in a gallop this morning. I missed the 33/1 but I can see this might go off at 16/1 or 14/1 so am happy to get involved with Skybet's 25/1 which is not only NRNB but also BOG. 

1pt ew Triolo D'Alene to win Cheltenham Gold Cup @ 25/1 Skybet (1/4 1,2,3) NRNB BOG.

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Doncaster today

Very disappointed with the latest two tennis tournaments. Both my each-way outsiders reached the semi-finals. 100/1 Kholshreiber went a break up in the first set in Dubai against Berdych before the latter recorded a routine 75 75 victory. More disappointing was 33/1 Dolgopolov in Acapulco who was as short as 1/2 to win his semi but went out in three sets. C'est la vie. 

I have had a rare bet on a NH race today. Not usually my thing (with the exception of Cheltenham!). Have had a look at the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and I like the chances of Real Milan. 

I'm taking on Pricewise (Racing Post) here though which on recent form is probably not wise. Particularly as the service has given two selections in this race and not played anywhere else today. But you have to bet against the crowd don't you? Because of course the crowd loses in the long term.

Incidentally the crowd was on Mugray to win the Acapulco tournament at the extraordinarily short price of 6/4 at the outset. In the last round he scraped past Simon, a player he had beaten 11 consecutive times and who was both injured and ill. But, as I write, he has just lost in three sets to Dimitrov.

15:30D 1pt ew Real Milan @ 11/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1,2,3 if 12 run) 

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