World Cup update

Of the three outright bets placed on South American outsiders on 4 December only one remains. Ten points were staked on that day on Colombia, Chile and Uruguay. We came very close to guaranteeing a semi-final spot when 50/1 Chile were a whisker away from upsetting the hosts. They hit the bar with just a couple of minutes of extra-time remaining when the match was tied at 1-1.

At least the biggest of the three bets was placed on Colombia @ 28/1 (2.5 points each-way). They must have a sporting chance of beating Brazil on Friday. The hosts' biggest assets are the crowd and Neymar. I understand that their leading striker has picked up an injury however. Colombia are now 12/1 in the outright list.

Germany at 7/1 is my only other outright bet still running and my dream result is a Colombia v Germany semi-final with the South American outfit prevailing. Well here's hoping.....

Sent from my iPad

Venus

So close to getting past Kvitova yesterday, Venus only lost her serve once throughout the whole match. That was the last game of the final set which she lost 7-5. Very disappointing as the draw had opened up with the earlier exit of the number two seed Li Na.

Kvitova now finds herself only a 7/1 chance to win the tournament as, on paper, she is expected to at least win the next two rounds. I think that would have been the case for VW too (perhaps 10/1 - 12/1) which would have given us a serious chance of getting a return had she made the last four. All academic now though and I suspect that was VW's last realistic shot at a major.

In the men's event Dimitrov is on course for a qtr final with Murray and is around 5/2 to reach the semis. Lopez and Janowicz are still in it for the third qtr bets however Federer is looking ominously good in this section.

Nadal

I'm probably completely mad but I think there is a significant chance of Nadal losing today. His last three results on grass have been losses: Dustin Brown, Steve Darcis and Lukas Rosel. Brown was just over a week ago at Halle whereas the other two defeats were at Wimbledon in '13 and '12

Today Nadal plays the Slovakian Martin Klizan who is no mug. He took a set from Nadal in their only meeting - at the French Open in '13. Klizan lost in the first round of Wimbledon last year but that was against Berdych. I have had a bet on betfair exchange where you will currently find the best odds. I got 9.6. There's not much of that left but there's a chunk of 9.2 available so I will book the bet at the latter price:

1.5pts win Klizan to beat Nadal @ 9.2 Betfair exchange 

Sent from my iPad 

Wimbledon 3

Have had a further two bets in the men's quarter betting. This time taking on the two Swiss players in the third quarter with two players who both have above average grass court records: 

Jerzy Janowicz who reached the Wimbledon semi-final last year where he was beaten by Murray. Feliciano Lopez who was runner-up at Queen's before winning Eastbourne on Saturday. 

My bets are:

1.5pts Janowicz to win third quarter @ 16/1 Coral

1.5pts Lopez to win third quarter @ 14/1 Coral

Three points staked.

At the time of writing above prices are also available with Paddy Power. Incidentally Coral have now cut Dimitrov from 6/1 to 4/1 to win the second quarter although 5/1 is still available in places. 

Sent from my iPad 

Royal Ascot summary

Disappointing end to the royal meeting with Don't Bother Me finishing a close up seventh @ 14/1 (from our 25/1). Thankfully Field Of Dream made it a winning week though:

Total stakes 14pts Returns 37pts Profit 23pts 

Sent from my iPad 

Wimbledon 2

Dimitrov is now fifth favourite to win Wimbledon following his success at Queen's. The Bulgarian is around 20/1. I'm not convinced he is experienced or strong enough to win Wimbledon at this stage in his career as, if the seedings workout, he would have to beat Murray followed by Djokovic followed by Nadal. Big ask. He could go well though and I have therefore had an interest in him winning the second quarter. This would involve beating Ferrer and Murray if the seedings hold.

I have had:

3pts Dimitrov to win second quarter @ 6/1 Coral

Sent from my iPad 

Royal Ascot - day five

It has to be the Wokingham tomorrow to complete the sequence of one race a day at Royal Ascot. Fortunately one of my selections won @ 28/1 so a good winning week whatever the outcome. Here are my thoughts for tomorrow:

17:00A 1.5pts ew Don't Bother Me @ 25/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

17:00A 1pt win Seeking Magic @ 12/1 William Hill BOG 

Four points staked. Good luck if you get involved. 

Sent from my iPad 

Wimbledon

The draws have been released for the tourney which starts on Monday. I'm not getting heavily involved. I'm still disappointed at the result of the French Open ladies' tournament! Getting Bouchard and Petkovic to the semis at huge prices with little return (just 6/1 for Bouchard to win her quarter) was painful. 

The only interest we have going in is Venus @ 66/1 and a negative position on Murray. All the Murray bets are still running of course as he has not won a grand slam, or indeed a tournament, this year. If the seedings work out he would have to beat Djokovic and then Nadal to defend here. 

In the ladies' event, Sharapova has again been drawn in Serena's quarter. This didn't stop her winning the French but she didn't have to play Serena as the latter lost in the second round. Venus is drawn in the bottom half which is a positive. 

For now I've just had a small bet on Ivanovic. She has been playing well this year. She is drawn in the second quarter and if she was to reach the semis she could conceivably beat Pova or Serena on her day for a place in the final. A big ask but 33s appeals. I may have some quarter bets when the prices are published. 

1pt ew Ana Ivanovic @ 33/1 William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2) 

Sent from my iPad 

Royal Ascot - day four

No luck yesterday although I think it was the right thing to do to take on the AOB hot pot which finished unplaced.  Just picked the wrong each-way selection!

Going for one in the tricky looking last the Buckingham Palace Stakes.

Mezzotint has won on good ground or better but his two starts this season were both on soft ground. Not surprisingly perhaps he was unplaced. Paddy Power were offering top price but unfortunately I have missed it, however they offer the first six for each-way bets so I have still partly played with them. JOB is an interesting jockey booking. 

17:35RA 0.75pt ew Mezzotint @ 25/1 Paddy Power BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)

               0.5pt win Mezzotint @ 33/1 William Hill BOG

Two points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Royal Ascot - day three

Great result yesterday with Field Of Dream coming home the comfortable winner of the Royal Hunt Cup @ 28/1 (SP 20/1). That earned us 35 points profit on the day. 

Readers of this month's London Racing Club magazine will know my liking for non-handicap races with advantageous each-way terms. Such a race was the Prince Of Wales's Stakes yesterday with eight runners, an 8/13 favourite and most bookmakers offering 1/4 odds a place. 

The Norfolk Stakes has a similar shape today. Nine runners, an even money favourite and 1/4 odds a place offered by most firms. AOB supplies the market choice but the yard has not really sparkled here as yet. Pricewise opposes the favourite with the unexposed American challenger but I prefer Mukhmal the unbeaten Johnston colt. Paul Hanagan's mount won from the outside draw at Chester - not an easy thing to do - thanks to some blistering early pace. I have had: 

14:30A 2pts ew Mukhmal @ 11/2 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3)

Four points staked.

Sent from my iPad 

Royal Ascot - day two

No good on day one. Probably just playing one selection Wednesday, in the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup. Like the look of last year's Bunbury Cup winner. He is also a course winner and wears a hood for the first time following a lengthy lay-off:

17:00A 1pt ew Field Of Dream @ 28/1 Betfred BOG (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) 

If I have another bet it will be posted shortly after the above race has been run. 

Sent from my iPad 

Let's go to war with Guerre

Apologies for cheesy headline. Couldn't resist it.

Not going to war exactly, just having a little bet on the AOB-trained RLM-ridden colt in the King's Stand  Stakes. (Lightly-raced) comfortable winner of his seasonal start at Naas. Not a great race for each-way bets as there are 17 runners and bookmakers are only offering first three places as I right. Coral best price though and at least they are 1/4 1,2,3 rather than a fifth:-

15:45A 1pt ew Guerre @ 12/1 Coral BOG (1/4 1,2,3) 

I'll be having a couple of bets at Ascot during the week. Usually on the hardest race of the day!

A winning treble?

No not three World Cup matches but will be three consecutive events for me. Last night was at superb Martin and Eliza Carthy gig which was part of Ludlow's Fringe Festival which runs until 6th July:

Tonight it's "As You Like It" - this year's offering from Ludlow's Shakespeare Festival in the castle grounds. Set in the sixties which should be interesting. Then Tuesday off to see "The Sea". Film of John Banville's 2005 Booker prize winning novel. Thought the book was a terrific read so looking forward to screen adaptation....

WC England v Italy

This should be a big turnover match for the bookmakers as it kicks off at 11pm on Saturday night. Plenty of punters getting tanked up before getting involved I suspect. They will want to see plenty of action....

What result would the bookmakers like to see? No doubt a draw and preferably 0-0.

I think they might get it. I have had:

2pts No goalscorer in Eng v Italy match @ 11/2 Coral (also with Skybet).

Cheer on the bore draw!..zzz....

World Cup

I can't believe it was way back in December I had my World Cup ante-post bets. Basically supporting the less fancied South American teams Columbia/Uruguay/Chile. Six months on and it seems the prices have hardly moved - with the exception of Columbia's price which has moved in the wrong direction! Not too much value there then...

Coral has a World Cup offer which seems generous, refunding outright losers if Brazil or Argentina win it. As they are first and second favourites I have been encouraged to support two more teams in the outright market. Bear in mind that the potential refund is only up to £25 however and it would, of course, be as a free bet. In terms of blog betting records I never include free bets if they are triggered - so just think of it as a small consolation if they come into play....

I have had:

3pts win Germany to win World Cup @ 7/1 Coral

2pts win Spain to win World Cup @ 13/2 Coral

Both prices above are the best currently available in the UK. Interestingly Ladbrokes offers only 5/1 Germany. 

Finally I've had just one small England negative bet in case it all goes pear-shaped:

1pt win England no tournament goal scorer @ 40/1 Skybet

Six points staked. Enjoy the tournament. 

Sent from my iPad 

Epsom

There's a big race I am interested in tomorrow. No not the Derby. Too many runners. Although bookmakers are offering a quarter the odds for each-way bets this is only for the first three home of the 16 runners. In any case nothing appeals to me so I will give it a swerve.

Instead I am concentrating on the 5f dash at Epsom with the following bets:

15:15E 2pts win 1pt place Even Stevens @ 12/1 Betfred BOG, NRNB (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

15:15E 1pt ew Taajub @ 20/1 Betfred BOG, NRNB (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)

Five points staked

Sent from my iPad 

2014 profitability

No further interest for me in the French Open other than Murray's progress because of the (negative) performance bets I placed in December. Who knows he could knock out Nadal - they are just arriving on court as I write - and then beat a rather sick looking Djoko on Sunday?

In any event I have updated the profit figures for the year, which are:

Stakes 217pts Returns 307pts Profit 90pts winning % = 41%

Full details here:

http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2014.php

Sent from my iPad

Ladies' semi-finals

Well I called it wrong today I thought Kuznetsova would be the one to benefit us (against Halep) but that was not to be. The Russian had a long medical timeout after losing the first set and was soon done for in the second set as her movement was impeded. Surprisingly though Petko easily beat Errani - 6-2 6-2 - to reach the semis and keep the 150/1 ew bet alive.

So tomorrow we have 66/1 Bouchard ew - i.e. 33/1 to beat Sharapova in tomorrow's match. And Peko @ 150/1 ew - so 75/1 to beat Halep in the other semi. If one of our outsiders reaches the final it will mean a winning tourney. Only small stakes but potentially decent returns.

You could hedge your bets by having a double on Sharapova and Halep to prevail. But you will only get around 8/11 the double and that will not be something I will be doing.

Sent from my iPad

RG today

If Kuznetsova beats Halep today the French Open will be a winning tournament for me. (16/1 the Russian to win the quarter). It's not a totally forlorn hope as the Russian is playing well and appears to be injury free. The H2H is 2-2 and the former champion won their only previous 2014 encounter which was on clay.

Elsewhere I have 9/2 Ferrer to beat Nadal (by backing the Spanish number two to win the first quarter). No value here as he's 5/1 to win today's match! Petkovic is still a runner @ 150/1 ew but may find Errani too consistent for her in their quarter-final this afternoon. I know that at least one reader has the 300/1 ew with Sportingbet that I highlighted. Good luck!

Looking forward to the first ladies' semi, Bouchard (6/1 for the quarter landed and 66/1 ew to win the tournament still running) played really aggressively yesterday to come from 4-1 down in the final set to get past CSN. A very tough task lies ahead though as she will now face the tournament favourite Sharapova. The Canadian appears to have a height disadvantage according to this picture:

However I understand this picture of the two participants is not a recent one!

"Bet"Fred

Betfred have voided the bet I placed this morning on Murray to be eliminated at the semi-final stage. Their feeble excuse is an "obvious error". If you managed to get on you need to check your account as I expect that the same will have happened to you.

Obviously the bet will be recorded as void in my 2014 accounts.

Now I'll be cheering Verdasco today!

Sent from my iPad

French Open update

It's been a poor tournament for me so far with my two biggest bets (stakes) losing in the first round. Need something to go right in the tourney to get back on track. Remarkably I do have three of my four ladies' outsiders still running and what's more they are all slight favourites to win their next matches: Petkovic, Kuznetsova and Bouchard. Our best hope for a tournament win rests with the impressive Bouchard who is now a 9/1 shot to win the tournament having beaten Kerber - the number eight seed - for the loss of just three games yesterday. We have 66/1 each-way for the title and 6/1 for her to reach the semi-final. 

This morning I have found what I believe to be a bit of value on Murray. I have had my bet and waited a while to see if the price would change as a result. It's still available as I write. Murray is around 4/6 to beat Verdasco today with whom he holds a 9-1 H2H. If he goes through I would expect him to be a similar price - or shorter - to beat Monfils or GGL. After that you would expect him to face Nadal or Ferrer in the semi and whichever Spaniard goes through to the last four they would surely be significant odds-on to beat the Scot. 

I think that Murray is therefore no more than 3/1 to be eliminated at the semi-final stage. Betfred offers 5/1 this outcome. I have had: 

6pts win Murray to be eliminated at the semi-final stage of FO @ 5/1 Betfred

Sent from my iPad